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Showing posts from August, 2021

Bad Betting Advice: Season Preview

So far this summer, I have crunched the numbers and ran the simulations in order to estimate the odds that every FBS team has to win their division and their conference, as well as to make the playoffs and to win the National Title. I have also calculated the expected number of wins for each team as well as the probability that each team will go winless, undefeated, and everything in between. While these calculations are interesting it does beg the question as to whether all of this data that I have produced might have some value in the betting arena. If you, dear reader, have some interest in using this data to place a bet or two, then I have a bit of advice. But before we begin, I will offer the following set of caveats. While I find the mathematics of the betting market fascinating, I do not personally use my own data to actually bet on sports (other than a low-stakes office NCAA Tournament pool or Bowl Game pool).  The retrospective analyses that I have performed on data previously