Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

Sophomore.  Noun: A student in the second year at college or a 4-year secondary school. Adjective: Being or associated with the second in a series. Etymology: Perhaps from Greek sophos wise + mōros foolish. In other words, a sophomore is a "wise fool." On Friday night, head coach Jonathan Smith will lead the Michigan State Spartans into the sophomore season of his tenure in East Lansing. Just like the first day of class for a teenager, it's a pretty big deal. The emotions will be similar for Spartan fans, as Friday night brings a combination of both excitement and anxiety as Michigan State open the season against the Western Michigan Broncos. The first year of any new endeavor or new place can be difficult. One has to learn about the culture, the traditions, the people, and they must navigate their way around in an unfamiliar environment. The Michigan State season in 2024 at times had the vibe that the new kids on the block were just trying to find their footing. But by t...

Over the past few weeks, I have taken you on a journey across the college football preseason landscape. I have reflected back on the data from 2025 and conducted a detailed analysis of the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans. I have analyzed the races in the Big Ten, the rest of the Power Four, and in the Group of Five. Most recently, I have made some predictions regarding the 12-team college football playoffs. In the first seven installments of this series, I have discussed a multitude of odds that I have generated using a simulation of the full college football season. In today's final installment of our college football preview, we will explore whether or not these odds might just help us win a bit of money.  That's right, it's time to officially kickoff the 2025 edition of Dr. Green and White's Bad Betting Advice. The Big Picture The results of my full season simulation provide a variety of odds that can be compared to common betting lines available fro...

Over the past few weeks we have covered a lot of ground in this series. We started back in 2024, took a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and then made some predictions about the winners of all nine Football Bowl Subdivision conferences. Now, it is time to put all of the pieces together and make some predictions about the 12-team college football playoff. Review of Conference Champion Predictions Table 1 below summarizes the results shared in the previous parts of this series regarding the two teams from each conference who are predicted to face each other in their respective conference championship games. Table 1:  Review of the predicted conference championship game participants based the preseason simulation results and the disruptive scenario. The left side of the table presents the predicted conference championship participants based on the raw odds generated from my preseason Monte Carlo simulation of the full season. The middle of the table gives th...

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have reviewed the results from 2024, taken a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and analyzed several scenarios in the Big Ten race. In today's installment, let's take a quick look at the races in the other three power conferences and make some predictions as to which teams like earn automatic bids to the 12-team college football playoff. SEC Overview and Prediction Similar to the analysis done for the Big Ten, Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the SEC race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength of schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the SEC Championship Game and to make and win the new 12-team playoff. Table 1:  Summary of the preseason projections for the SEC conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the f...

So far our math-informed exploration the 2025 college football season has taken us back in time to 2024, explored the schedule of the Michigan State Spartans, and delved into the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC races. Today's stop takes us to the remainder of Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences, with a brief detour looking at the likely accuracy of all these picks. In the 12-team college playoff, the highest ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, the Sun Belt, or the Mid-American Conference will also earn a spot on the bracket.  But which team will it be? Let's pay a quick visit to each conference and once again make some math-driven predictions. Mountain West The analysis of each conference will take the same form as the analysis of the Power Four conferences in parts four and five of this series.  Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the Mountain West race, including the consensus preseaso...

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have explored the historical accuracy of the preseason rankings, taken a look back at last year, and conducted a thorough analysis of the potential paths for the 2025 Michigan State Spartans' season. In today's installment, the focus shifts to the Big Ten conference race. Strengths of Schedule The first thing to cover today is relative strength of schedule. Figure 1 below summarizes my calculations for the 18 Big Ten teams' overall schedules. Figure 1:  Overall strengths of schedule for the 2025 Big Ten conference. The overall FBS rank is shown in each bar. There are several different ways to calculate strength of schedule. I use my preseason estimations of power rankings to generate estimated point spreads for all potential college football matchup. I then calculate the number of expected wins that a reference, borderline top 25 team would have if that reference team were to play the schedule in quest...