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Michigan State odds update for Jan. 19

Saturday night the Michigan State Spartans did something that no other Tom Izzo coached team has ever done. MSU won a regular season conference game in the pacific time zone in the 80-63 win at Washington. OK, so maybe the win was not that big of a deal. The road game at Washington ranks as just the ninth toughest game on the conference schedule. But considering two of the Spartans three conference losses last year came in the city of Los Angeles, getting the west coast road win was a hurdle that needed to be cleared. With the win over the Huskies, the Spartans move to 6-1 in conference play. Let's dig into the data to see where MSU stands and how the Big Ten race is likely to play out. Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, Jan. 19. Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 19, 2026 Purdue and Nebraska are at the top of the standings with perfect 7-0 records. The Cornhuskers currently have an edge in strength of conference resume (+3.64) over...
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2026 Michigan State and Big Ten Basketball Odds and Stats Tracker

Throughout the Big Ten basketball season. I have historically conducted an analysis on the results of a series simulations which provides various odds regarding the trajectory of the Michigan State men's basketball season and the Big Ten race as a whole.  In addition, I have provided additional analysis of Michigan State and the Big Ten race using Kenpom efficiency data compared to historical data and the set of statistics known as the "four factors of basketball success." As the season goes on, the data change almost daily. This post is meant to be a one-stop shop for the most updated data on the Big Ten race. In addition, this post will contain a explanation of how to read each table or figure. Analysis of the data will be done elsewhere. This post contains "just the facts." Last Update: Jan. 15, 2026 Percentage of Big Ten games completed: 54 of 180 games (30%) Enhanced Big Ten Standings Table 1 below is what I refer to as the enhanced Big Ten standings. It i...
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Michigan State and Big Ten Stats Update for Jan. 11, 2025

A few weeks ago, I presented my two-part preview of the Big Ten basketball season, including a ton of data about how the season is likely to play out. In just this short period of time, already a lot has changed. The Michigan State Spartans opened 2026 with a tough loss on the road at Nebraska. MSU followed up the loss with a blowout win over USC and a closer-than-expected win over Northwestern, both at home.  Michigan State sits at 4-1 a quarter of the way through Big Ten play prior to Tuesday night's game versus Indiana. Table 1 below is what I refer to as the enhanced Big Ten standings. It includes the current Big Ten record of each team in addition to several other pieces of data.  Table 1:  Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 13, 2026 First, it contains the current Kenpom rankings and adjusted efficiency margins (AdjEM) for each team. Second, it contains the "plus/minus" for each team. The value is equal to the number of road wins minus the number of homes losses....
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Michigan State and Big Ten Basketball Stats Update: The Four Factors

A few weeks ago, I introduced my annual Big Ten basketball preview where I broke down the concept of strength of schedule, performed a deep dive on the conference slate for the Michigan State Spartans, and gave the current results of my state-of-the-art Big Ten basketball simulation. But there are other statistics that are useful to understand basketball at a deeper level. Today, I would like to reintroduce a concept referred to as the "Four Factors" of basketball success. The Four Factors have been discussed in great detail elsewhere. Briefly the four factors on both offense and defense are: 1. Effective field goal percentage (eFGPct) 2. Turnover percentage (TOPct) 3. Offensive rebounding percentage (ORPct) 4. Free-throw rate (FTRate) Basically, the four factors account for how well a team shoots or defends shots (eFGPct), the ability of a team to create (or lose) shots opportunities (TOPct and ORPct), and the ability of a team to score or avoid points from the free throw li...
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2025-26 Big Ten Basketball Math-Driven Preview

The 2025-26 college basketball season is underway all Big Ten teams have completed play for the Christmas holiday break. In early December each team completed one home and one road game in conference play. Throughout the Michigan State football season, I provided bi-weekly updates on the odds of various season outcomes. I utilized my own power rankings and a set of simulation and other analytical tools to generate these odds. My process for college basketball is similar. The major difference is that I prefer to use efficiency metrics, specifically those tabulated by Ken Pomeroy ("Kenpom") to estimate point spreads and odds. These data correlate well to point spreads and point spreads correlate to actual game results. There is no reason for me to recreate the wheel. I have recently performed my first set of simulation of the 2025-26 Big Ten season using the updated Kenpom efficiency data through December 24. The results of the simulation and other calculations can tell us a lo...
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