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Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Six: Road Trip!

The Michigan State Spartans spent most of the month of September at home in East Lansing. Things got off to a good start as the Green and White raced out to a 3-0 start. Two weeks ago, the Spartans boarded a plane bound for Los Angeles. Once they arrived, they found that that the night life out there is not all that they were hoping it would be. Michigan State returned from the west coast banged up and with a loss to USC. It was such a bummer of a trip that they took last weekend off. This week, the freshly-rested Spartans are preparing for yet another road trip. This time the destination is Lincoln, Neb. and the opponent is the equally-well-rested Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Lincoln is way closer to East Lansing than Los Angeles. Google Maps tells me that it is a mere 740 miles. One could make the drive in under 12 hours. That may sound like a lot, but just think about breathtaking scenery that awaits once one passes through Chicago and has the opportunity to drive through rural Illino...
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Against All Odds, Week Five: It's Oh So Quiet

While I love college football, I must admit that a bye week for the team that I follow is pretty nice. The first four weekends of the year have already included some tense and dramatic moments for the Michigan State Spartans. But this weekend was oh so quiet. It was oh so still.  I am sure that some of Spartan coaching staff, players, and fans enjoyed some alone time. I would imagine that it was quite peaceful. It is relaxing just to think about it. Shhhh! As the Michigan State community enjoyed the week off, the college football season continued to march along. In many ways, it was a quiet week across the board. But there were a few outcomes that made fans shout and yell. Let's go ahead and take a look at details. Week Five Betting Results Let's ring the bell and break the silence regarding last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week...
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Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Five: Pause

Week Five of the college football season represents approximately the one-third point of the 2025 season. For the Michigan State Spartans, Week Five is the first of two bye weeks. That means that it is time to hit the pause button. It gives the banged-up Spartans a chance to recover from jet lag, rest and relax. For the Michigan State coaching staff, it is a chance to stop, reflect, and analyze on the play of the Spartans so far this year. They will likely spend some time hitting rewind on game film in an effort to understand what has gone well and what needs to be fixed.  If we mentally fast forward to next weekend's game at Nebraska, hopefully the week of rest and reflection will result in improved play that will translate into more wins and a record that will make Spartan fans proud. In the meantime, even though the Spartans are on pause, there is still plenty of other action to talk about, stats to analyze, and predictions to record. Data never takes the week off. Big Ten Overv...
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Against All Odds, 2025 Week Four: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Early Sunday morning and 2,200 miles from home, the Michigan State Spartans suffered the first loss of the 2025 season. The Spartans were defeated by the USC Trojans, 45-31. I find that beyond the simple feeling of sleep deprivation, my thoughts on the game are mixed. Several aspects of this weekend's game fall squarely into the "bad" category. We knew that USC has an explosive offense, but the Spartans pride themselves on stopping the run. On Saturday night the Trojans racked up 289 yards on the ground (7.2 yards per attempt) compared to just 112 yards for Michigan State (3.5 yards per attempt). That's not good. USC only punted once in the game and that was with just 22 seconds remaining. The Trojans converted 75% of their third downs and half of their fourth downs. That's dreadful. We knew that USC had a strong pass rush, but Spartan quarterback Aidan Chiles was pressured on almost half of his drop back attempts (13 of 27). When pressured, he was sacked twice an...
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Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Four: MSU Up All Night (with Dr. Green and White)

After three straight game in the friendly confines of Spartan Stadium, Michigan State is off this week for the first road game and first conference game of the season. The Spartans will be traveling across the USA to sunny Los Angeles to face the USC Trojans. But the bigger opponent on this trip might be time itself. It takes a long time just to get to Southern California. A direct flight from Michigan takes over four hours. That's enough time to fit in a B movie, a cult classic, and maybe a few comedy skits on the infight entertainment system. It is also a long time for an athlete to be couped up in a small space. Once the team gets there and gets settled in L.A., the game itself does not kick off until 8 p.m. local time. That's 11 p.m. back home. That a lot of time to kill. By the time the team finishes with the game, gets cleaned up, and returns to the hotel, it will likely be close to 5 a.m. according to their body clocks. I am not as young as I used to be, but just thinkin...
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