Michigan State odds update for Jan. 19

Saturday night the Michigan State Spartans did something that no other Tom Izzo coached team has ever done. MSU won a regular season conference game in the pacific time zone in the 80-63 win at Washington.

OK, so maybe the win was not that big of a deal. The road game at Washington ranks as just the ninth toughest game on the conference schedule. But considering two of the Spartans three conference losses last year came in the city of Los Angeles, getting the west coast road win was a hurdle that needed to be cleared.

With the win over the Huskies, the Spartans move to 6-1 in conference play. Let's dig into the data to see where MSU stands and how the Big Ten race is likely to play out. Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, Jan. 19.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 19, 2026

Purdue and Nebraska are at the top of the standings with perfect 7-0 records. The Cornhuskers currently have an edge in strength of conference resume (+3.64) over Purdue (+2.49). This means that Nebraska has won over three-and-a-half more games than an average power four team would be expected to win playing the same conference schedule to date.

Michigan State is currently in a three-way tie for third place with Illinois and Michigan. In this case, the Spartans (+2.10) have an edge in strength of resume over both the Fighting Illini (+1.84) and the Wolverines (+1.10).

Wisconsin (5-2) is alone in sixth place. The Badgers are one game ahead of UCLA and Ohio State. There is then a four-way tie for ninth place between Minnesota, USC, Indiana, and Iowa.

Rutgers and Washington are tied for 13th place with a pair of wins. Maryland and Oregon have just one conference win while Penn State and Northwestern are both winless.

Table 2 below gives the updated conference win matrix.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix.

 as of Jan. 19, 2026

In terms of expected wins, Purdue (16.35) and Michigan (16.26) remain in a virtual dead heat despite the Boilermakers owning a one-game lead over the Wolverines in the standings. Nebraska (15.93) is now less than a half-game behind the two favorites.

Illinois (15.48) is about a half game behind Nebraska. Michigan State (15.08) remains in fifth place in expected wins about four-tenths-of-a-game behind the Fighting Illini.

Then there is over a three-game gap between fifth and sixth place. Iowa (11.83) is the next team on the list, followed by Wisconsin (11.31), Ohio State (10.62), and UCLA (10.37). The remaining nine teams all have expected win totals below 10.0.

The data is Table 2 also tell us that there is just under a 50% chance that the Spartans will finish with 15 or 16 total Big Ten wins. The odds for a record of 17-3 or better is just 18%. The odds of finishing with a record of 14-6 or worse are 34%.

Table 3 below shows how the expected wins in Table 2 translate into odds to win at least a share of the regular season Big Ten title.

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Consistent with Table 2, Purdue (30.5%) and Michigan (29.2%) are in a virtual tie for first place. Nebraska (21.0%) is less than 10 percentage points behind. Illinois has 11.9% odds while Michigan State has odds at 7.3%.

No other Big Ten team has odds over 1-in-1,000 and none of the bottom eight team won a single championship in any of the 700,000 simulation cycles.

The simulation also suggests that there is a over a 60% chance that the eventual champion(s) will have a final conference record of 18-2 or better. There is also about a 70% chance that a single team will claim the regular season crown.

Update on the Spartans' Remaining Schedule

Figure 1 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games. 

Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule for the remaining conference games.

Michigan State has 13 games remaining in the regular season. The Spartans are expected to be at least a nine-point favorite in seven of those games.

MSU is expected to be between a two- and five-point favorite in three of the remaining games: the home game against Illinois and the road games at Wisconsin and at Indiana. 

The Spartans are expected to be an underdog in the two remaining games against Michigan and the road game at Purdue.

With the road win at Washington now in the books, the Spartans are heavy favorites in the next three games. There is 75% chance that MSU will be 9-1 on Jan. 30 when the Wolverines come to town.

The opponents over the next three games are not so scary, but the travel may be a concern. The Spartans get a bit of a break after they return from Oregon. But the three-game set starting with the home game versus Maryland, at Rutgers, and versus Michigan occurs in a seven-day span with a trip to New Jersey in the middle.

Michigan State may not be at peak freshness for the critical home game against the Wolverines. That said, the game on Jan. 30 is absolutely a game MSU need to have in order to stay in the Big Ten race and to maintain the proper order of things in the Great Lakes state.

If the Spartans can get to 10-1, they will absolutely be in the chase for a Big Ten title coming down the stretch.

Breaking Down the Big Ten Race

As shown above in Table 3, the Big Ten race is practically down to just five teams: Purdue, Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, and Michigan State. There are a total of 12 games on the Big Ten schedule where a pair of those five teams play each other.

Two of those games are already in the books as Nebraska beat Illinois in Champaign and Michigan State in Lincoln. This leaves a total of 10 games that will overwhelmingly impact the Big Ten race.

Also note that of the five contenders, Michigan is the only one to have lost a game to a non-contender (Wisconsin).

Here is a summary of those 10 remaining games between the contenders and the current project point spreads:

• Jan. 24: Illinois at Purdue (-4)
• Jan. 27: Nebraska at Michigan (-9.5)
• Jan. 30: Michigan at Michigan State (+1.5)
• Feb. 1: Illinois at Nebraska (-1)
• Feb. 7: Illinois at Michigan State (-2.5)
• Feb. 10: Purdue at Nebraska (-0.5)
• Feb. 17: Michigan at Purdue (-0.5)
• Feb. 26: Michigan State at Purdue (-5)
• Feb. 27: Michigan at Illinois (+1.0)
• March 8: Michigan State at Michigan (-8)

Based on this list, Purdue appears to have an advantage. The Boilermakers only play each of the other contenders once, and three of the four games are at home. Purdue is only projects as a narrow underdog on the road at Nebraska.

Nebraska is also in a strong position. Not only do the Corn Huskers already have two wins in the five total games against the other contenders, the only road game remaining against a contender is at Michigan. 

The Huskers will also be finished playing the other contenders on Feb. 10. If Nebraska can find a way to upset Michigan on Jan. 27, a Big Ten title will suddenly become very realistic.

As for the Wolverines, they still have yet to play all five games against the other contenders and three of those five games are on the road. In fact, ten of the toughest 12 conference games on Michigan's slate are still in front of them. 

Illinois has four games remaining against the contenders and only one of those games (against Michigan) is at home. From this point of view, the Fighting Illini have the toughest path to a Big Ten banner.

Michigan State also has four games remaining against the contenders. The Spartans play the Wolverines twice, draw Illinois at home and must travel to Purdue.

But the ten games above are not the only challenges on the schedule for each team. It is also useful to look at the quantitative strength of each teams full remaining schedule. Figure 2 below makes that comparison.

Figure 2: Remaining conference strength of schedule for each Big Ten team, as of Jan. 19, 2026.

As expected, Nebraska does have the easiest remaining path of the five contenders. An average power four reference team would be expected to win 6.92 games playing the Huskers remaining schedule.

But Michigan State is less than 0.2 of a game behind Nebraska in this metric and Illinois is basically tied with Michigan State. This suggests that while MSU and Illinois have some tough games remaining against the other contenders, the balance of each teams' conference schedule is a bit easier.

Notably, Purdue and Michigan have the two most difficult remaining conference schedules. Quantitatively, these schedules are about a full game more difficult than the Corn Huskers' schedule.

This is particularly bad news for Michigan, as the Wolverines already have a loss to a non-contender. But it also implies that Purdue is the most likely team to drop a game or two to a non-contender in the future.

A second look at each contenders' schedule shows where the potential pitfalls lie. Purdue has several potentially challenging road games left on the schedule. The Boilermakers play at UCLA on Tuesday and also have tough road games remaining at Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio State. Based on the projected spreads, Purdue has just a 17% chance to sweep those four road games.

Michigan also has trickly road games at Iowa and Ohio State in addition to the five remaining games against the other contenders.

As for Illinois, the Fighting Illini have already won road games at Iowa and Ohio State. But they still must visit Los Angeles and face USC and UCLA later in the year.

Nebraska also must make to the trip to Los Angeles later in the season and have a tough rivalry road game at Iowa on the schedule.

As for MSU, the Spartans' toughest two games outside of the four games against the contenders are the road games at Wisconsin and at Indiana.

In total, these 13 other games will likely determine the eventual Big Ten Champion(s).