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2017, Week 10 Preview (Just the Facts, Ma'am)

Based on my travel schedule this week and impending jetlag crash, I will try to keep this week’s preview brief. As we all know, MSU will square off with Penn State this week in East Lansing, and the spread opened at a surprisingly low value of PSU at -9. That translates to a 26% chance of an MSU victory, which is better odds than we had going into the game in Ann Arbor a month ago.  Considering that MSU’s coaching staff seems to have a particular disdain for Penn State, combined with the fact that PSU is coming off two tough games in a row, including a last-second-control-your-own-destiny-stealing loss to the Buckeyes, and maybe you have the recipe for an upset. Maybe. For that to happen, MSU will need to be much sharper than last week, but that is certainly possible. Either way, I would be pretty surprised if MSU doesn’t keep the game a little closer than our friends from Ann Arbor did 2 weeks ago. The winner, of course, will get to keep the world’s least desirable trophy, but hey, a trophy is a trophy.

National Overview




My weekly plot of the Vegas spread versus my spreadsheet predictions shows a remarkably “well behaved” plot with only a few highlighted covers and upsets, notably Washington over Oregon, Cal over Oregon State, and Texas Tech over K-State. Strangely, for perhaps the first time ever, ESPN’s FPI likes more upsets than my spreadsheet does with 9, but 5 of those 9 are in agreement with my picks (Iowa State, UCLA, Florida, Utah State, and Northwestern all to win). Overall, my simulation suggests to expect 15.1± 3.3 upsets this week. and the predicted distribution and upset table are shown below




Big Ten

Honestly, the action this week in the B1G is a bit underwhelming, as the only games with tight spreads involve Rutgers (pick ‘em vs. Maryland) and Nebraska (somehow -1.5 vs. Northwestern). I guess if Nebraska does wins, it might help the Big Ten get one more team bowl eligible and it might also help MSU’s bowl positioning. That said, both division leaders have potentially sneaky tough road games as Ohio State (-17) must travel to Iowa City, and Wisconsin (-9) visits Bloomington.  Finally, Michigan hosts Minnesota (+14). No one cares, accept the legion of Gopher fans on my flight today from Minneapolis.

ACC

Despite the fact that 5 of the 14 ACC teams are on a bye this week, both Divisions feature a match-up that will likely determine who will play in the ACC title game. In the Atlantic Division, Clemson travels to Raleigh and opened as a 7-point favorite against NC State. The winner of this game will almost certainly be playing in Orlando in early December. The team from the Coastal Division which will join them seems very likely to be the winner of this week’s Virginia Tech – Miami game in which the Hokies are a 2-point favorite despite being on the road. If that weren’t enough, GA Tech travels to Virginia (+9) to decide third place (for now) in the Coastal Division while Florida State (-4) will try to stop the bleeding against Syracuse.

Big 12

It is also shaping up to be a big week on the Plains. A few weeks ago, I expected that this week’s in-state clash in Stillwater between Oklahoma and OK State (-3.5) would decide the conference title, but the last few weeks have told us that Iowa State will have something to say about that. The Cyclones have a tricky road test in Morgantown, and enter the game with West Virginia as 2-point dogs, but both my math and the FPI like ISU in the upset. TCU also hopes to stay in the conference race and most protect home turf against the Longhorns (+8) to do so. Finally, we will finally determine which team in worse this week: Kansas or Baylor. Vegas is currently voting for Kansas (+9).

Pac 12

Not to be left out, the action out West also could potentially have a big impact on the final trajectory of the season. Down South, Arizona pays a visit to South Central L.A. in a showdown of conference 1-loss teams. While a Trojan (-10) win won’t quite mathematically assure they win the division, it would come very close, as they would need to lose out in order to fail in this endeavor. Meanwhile, up North, Stanford takes a visit to Pullman to face Wazzou (-1). If the Cougar want to stay in the Division race, this is one that they need in the win column. Otherwise the season finale against Washington will only be an opportunity to spoil the Huskies slim chances at a play-off berth. The Cougars would like ‘dem apples, just fine, but they would like ‘dem apples even better if the Apple Bowl were to be for a Division Title. Speaking of Washington, they are -16.5 against Oregon in Seattle.

SEC

On paper, it looks like this could be a very high impact week down south as well… until you actually look at the spreads. Alabama hosts LSU (+20) which could result in a 3-way tie for first in the West, but with a 20-point spread, the odds of an upset are less than 10%. Similarly, Georgia will play host to South Carolina (+23.5) and a Gamecock win could result in USC taking the Division, if they can beat Florida next week and if Georgia were to lose at Auburn next week. The odds of all 3 events happening looks to be less than 1%. Even the Auburn at Texas A&M (+14) game has a fairly low 16% chance of being interesting. I guess we all just need to accept that November is pretty much a wash down South.

Independents / Group of Five

Notre Dame will look to protect that Top 4 ranking by playing host to Wake Forest (+15) this weekend. The Irish are rolling, but after two high-profile games in a row, they might be ripe for a bit of a letdown. My spreadsheet still likes ND to cover in this one, but I will point out that my math has Wake ranked #25 overall, which is just one slot below last week’s opponent, NC State. My gut tells me this one might be a bit closer than the Irish would like. In AAC play, current NY6 leader, UCF (-12.5) has a tricky road test at 6-2 SMU this weekend, as do the West Division leading Memphis Tigers who must travel to Tulsa (+12). Meanwhile, USF will try to get back on track at UCONN (+23). In MACtion, Toledo (-10) hosts Northern Illinois in a battle of 4-0 teams in conference play. I see now that game already took place and the Rockets won by 10 to at least stay in the conversation for that elusive NY6 bid.

That’s about all for this week. As always, Go State, Beat the Lions!

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