I took some time this afternoon to crunch some numbers regarding MSU and UofM's pass and run efficiency per attempt as well as those statistics for all of their opponents. Here are some of my take-aways
1) Overall, Michigan's stats are not so dissimilar from Penn State's or, oddly, Utah State's.
Michigan's pass yards per attempt are actually the highest of any team than we have faced yet (8.28 yd/att), but that is just slightly higher than Penn State (8.21) and Utah State (8.12). Michigan's run offense is ranked #20 at 5.35 yd/att, which is not as good as either Penn State (#9, 6.07 yd/att) or Utah State (#16, 5.49 yd/att). MSU has faced comparable offenses (statistically...) already this year and done well.
That said, Michigan's defense is statistically the best that we have faced (#3 pass D per attempt, #13 rush D per attempt, and overall #2 D in yards per play). But, Penn Sate and Utah State's defenses are also both ranked in the Top 25 overall, as is CMU's pass defense.
2) Yes, MSU's offensive stats are... offensive
In yards per attempt, MSU's is ranked 80th in passing, 15th in rushing, and 94th in overall yd/paly. That's not good. Also, the run game has been consistently bad. The best outing was 4.0 yd/att against NW, which would still only be good enough for 90th place in that was MSU's average. Ouch. Interestingly, MSU's passing stats were respectable in the first three games at around 8.3 yd/att, but they have been dropping in the last three games (as MSU's WRs have also been dropping, both passes and "like flies"). MSU has not faced many "bad" defenses, per se, as NW (#85 overall) and Indiana (#76 overall) are the only two outside the Top 50, so that probably is not helping MSU's stats.
3) Michigan's competition looks pretty suspect so far
I am not sure Michigan has really been tested yet, outside of Notre Dame. Statistically, the Irish's defense is quite good (#10 against the pass, #31 against the run, and #10 overall), but their offense, especially at the time, was/is mediocre (44th in passing, 79th in rushing, and 64th overall). Other than that, UofM has faced teams who either have terrible offenses: SMU (110), NW (116) or terrible defenses: WMU (102), Nebraska (91), NW (85), and Wisconsin (100). Of course, the problem here is that MSU also, statistically, has a terrible offense (94)
4) However, the Maryland game is giving me pause
For the purposed of this analysis, Maryland looks pretty decent. Their rushing offense is ranked #10 overall. Their passing offense is bad (#113), but overall they are ranked 45th in yards per play. On defense, the Terps are pretty good too. Their rush defense is ranked #14 and their pass defense is ranked #43, slightly better than MSU's. Overall, their D comes in at #17 at 4.61 yd/play, which is better than's MSU's rank of 39th and 5.08 yd/att. Michigan pretty much rolled the Terps, and statistically, they are the closest match to MSU (even if they aren't that close.)
Also, Michigan's offense tends to get noticeably slowed by the better defenses they have faced. The 3 best rush defenses that they have faced: Notre Dame (31), Maryland (14), Northwestern (73) have all held the Wolverines to under 4.3 yd/att, well below their average of 5.35. The Irish held them to 1.8 yd/att. In passing, the story is more-or-less the same, as Notre Dame (10) and Nebraska (54) both held UofM to less than 7 yd/pass att. The outlier, again, is Maryland (14) who UofM lit up for 10.5 yd/att, including 9 pass plays for 15 or more yards. That game is confusing, and a bit troubling. Oddly, though, the Wolverines followed that up with their worst passing effort of the year (5.9 yd/att against Wisconsin, who is 82nd against the pass)
5) Good offenses can make a dent that "vaunted Don Brown defense."
The last two teams that UofM has faced: Wisconsin (6) and Maryland (10), both have top 10 yard/att rushing offenses. Both were able to manage more than 4.0 yd/att on the ground. As for the passing game, Michigan has only faced two teams with Top 50 passing offenses: Western Michigan (36) and Notre Dame (44). While Western got nothing going through the air (2.5 yd/att, yikes!), Notre Dame lit them up nicely to the tune of 7.7 yd/att, and that was with their bad QB. In principle, Wisconsin's passing offense is not terrible (56th), but Hornibrook was a dumpster fire last weekend, and very little of that had to do with Michigan's D. I am not convinced that Michigan's pass defense has been tested yet by a QB as good as Lewerke, at least, that is, the "good" version of Lewerke.
If I add everything up, based on these numbers I would not expect either team to be able to do much at all on the ground. MSU rush defense should be too good, and MSU's rush offense is almost certainly too bad. So, both teams will need to try to move the ball through the air. I think that there is a pretty good chance that MSU can shut this down as well, and there is at least a little hope that MSU could make some hay against the UofM secondary if Lewerke can avoid mistakes and if he has somebody to throw to.
This looks like it will be a defensive struggle. That means that the game will likely be decided by things such as turnovers, special teams, big plays, and mental errors. The team that plays the cleanest game will very likely win. Both coaches are likely to try to scheme some points using some trickeration or that special play that they have been holding onto since training camp. At least MSU is likely to use that strategy. It is unclear if Harbaugh is that smart. Either way, the first team to 21 is likely going to be the winner (if either team can even get there).
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