While on my flight back to the USA this week, I decided to re-watch Avengers: Infinity War on the entertainment system of the flight. Perhaps the most talked about scene in that film is when Dr. Strange inexplicably gives up the Time Stone to Thanos in exchange for Ironman / Tony Stark’s life. As his explanation, Dr. Strange simply comments, “We’re in the Endgame now.”
The word Endgame typically refers to chess and not necessarily either College Football or a quest to defeat a mad Titan. In chess, it is the stage of the game where major pieces start getting sacrificed in order to pave the way for final victory… or defeat. In other words, in when crap starts to get real.
Both in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and in this year’s college football season, we have enjoyed years / weeks of anywhere from mediocre (Thor: The Dark World) to great (MSU vs. Penn State and Purdue) entertainment. But looking at both MSU’s schedule and the schedule for the whole week, I think that the 2018 season has arrived at the Endgame. Hold on to your hats folks, because crap is about to get real.
As for MSU, last week’s win was Hulk huge. Had MSU lost, the season would have tilted a bit more towards desperation. A Bowl game would have been in question. But now, it is time once again to try to get a bit greedy and start to see how many wins this MSU team can pile up. 7-8 wins is very possible again, especially if the team can continue to beat back the injury bug and start to regain some health. 9 wins is even on the table again, as crazy as that might sound.
But the challenge at hand this week is a tough road test at Maryland. The line opened at MSU -3 which by my math puts MSU’s chances at 58%. That is a little better than my spreadsheet, which gives Maryland a slight 0.6-point edge. Either way, it is a safe bet to expect a close game.
I must admit that I have not watched too many snaps from the Twerps this year, but their stats and results paint a bit of an odd picture. The per yards stats suggest that they are a good running team (3rd nationally in yards per carry) and a solid rush defense (41st). Their pass defense is also solid (37th) but their passing offense is one of the worst in the country per yard (95th, actually). Their schedule is also a bit bipolar. They own a good win over Minnesota and even own the conference’s best non-conference win of year when they beat Texas in Week 1. However, they also got blown out by Temple in Week 3 and shutout against Iowa. So, who are these masked men?
There are people out there with a much better grasp on the Xs and Ox, but the stats might give as a bit of a hint. The three teams who have beaten Maryland all have very good (statistically) defenses. Temple, Iowa, and Michigan are all in the Top 7 in total defense yards/play. Meanwhile, the bipolar nature of their offense is just another word for “one-dimensional.” When one-dimensional teams face MSU (or any team with a good defense), bad things usually happen to them. Add to this the fact that Maryland’s strength on offense (running) plays right into MSU’s hands and this has the trappings of a good afternoon for MSU.
The flip side is that Maryland’s defense, statistically, is pretty good. It’s much better than Purdue’s, for example. So, there is certainly a chance that MSU’s can’t move the ball either and we find ourselves in a low-score grinder where the team that blinks first loses. That could be trouble on the road. But, I like MSU’s coaches’ ability to manipulate the chess board here. The pieces seem to be getting healthier, and I think they will figure out a way to scheme enough points to win. I am not sure about Maryland’s coaching staff, but let’s just say that they look to be more the checkers playing type. Add that to the mid-week DJ Durkin controversy, and honestly, who knows how that will affect the team. Either way, MSU is on the clock and the next set of moves will determine if this season is ultimately judged as a success or as a failure.
National Overview
Per my normal schedule, here is my prediction chart for Week 10. My spreadsheet likes I like 7 teams to cover: Clemson (not shown / off scale), Cincinnati, Fresno State, NC State, Syracuse, UAB, and Army.
As for upsets, my spreadsheet likes nine total this week, including LSU over Alabama. My spreadsheet also likes Baylor to beat OK State, Colorado over Zona, West Virginia over Texas, Iowa over Purdue, and VA Tech over BC. Oh, and it also likes Maryland to beat MSU. Fortunately, we are not dealing with Deep Blue here, so it will probably be OK... maybe. As for the FPI, it only likes 2 upsets this week: VA Tech and Iowa. My weekly simulation suggests to expect 13.8 ± 3.1 upsets this week.
Big Ten
This is going to be a reoccurring theme this week, but there are a couple of monster games in the Big Ten. Let's start with Older Brother. After a full two-week bender, Cousin Nitt has decided to go over to Older Brother's house to see if he can stage a bit of an intervention. If successful, the whole family will breath a deep sigh of relief. If Cousin Nitt fails, well, Older Brother's bender will likely continue to rage until the Thanksgiving at Cousin Brutus' house. Fortunately, Cousin Brutus has great track record of smacking sense into Older Brother and getting him back on the wagon for a while. Then again, Cousin Brutus may be a bit under the weather...
Michigan enters the Penn State game as a 10-point favorite, which translates to 76% chance of victory. If Michigan wins, Penn State and MSU are essentially eliminated from the Big Ten race. But, if the Lions win, the rest of the season all of a sudden gets really, really interesting. In general, Michigan is strutting around like they are a Queen right now, when in fact I think that it is more likely that they are a Bishop. The problem is that it isn't clear if there are any Queens left on the board. I'm not sure if there are even any Rooks. We likely won't know for sure until bowl season.
As for the Big Ten West, Iowa has a major test at Purdue (-1.5). The Boilers are hoping to bounce back from last weeks loss. Sorry, Boilers. (Not actually sorry.) My spreadsheet continues to love Iowa, but they are running out of time to prove that they are worthy of that love. One more loss and the Hawkeyes are out of the race and resigned to fighting for a spot in the Holiday Bowl. (You could do worse, Hawkeyes.) As for Purdue, they need to figure out if they are a Big Ten contender or a 500 team. The difference between the two is frighteningly close right now, especially in the West.
Finally, in other action Rutgers is a huge underdog at Wisconsin (-30), and Minnesota is inching towards Bowl eligibility at Illinois (+9.5). Northwestern also has a suddenly very intriguing visit from Notre Dame this week (more on that later). But, for me the other game to watch is Nebraska at Ohio State (-21). Will the Buckeyes start playing up to their potential after their beat-down in West Lafayette, or are the Wheels on C-Bus coming off? That is a major story line to watch for the month of November.
SEC
There have been some big games in the SEC this year, but Week 10 is truly the Endgame in conference play. First, the East is now dead simple. Georgia travels to Lexington to face Kentucky (+10). The winner wins the East. That's it. As for the West, Alabama travels to Baton Rouge to face LSU (+14). If Bama wins, they take the West. That's it as well. But, if LSU wins, the race is not quite over. The Tigers would need to survive their final two conference games, including a non-layup trip to College Station in the final week of the year. For me, the spreads in both games look quite high. My spreadsheet think the UGA-UK game will be closer than 10-points, while it also likes LSU to win straight-up. We will see who is right. As for the other games... well, it is just a bunch of mediocre (by SEC standards) teams jockeying for bowl position.
The other interesting subplot to all of this is very real question of what happens to Alabama if they lose to LSU and fail once again to make the SEC Title game? I would argue that on some level, their odds to make the Playoff are actually better if they lose to LSU. Why? Because there is no longer a risk that they lose the SEC Title game on a neutral field. Losing to LSU on the road is forgivable. Losing on a neutral field to Georgia (for example) may not be. Either way, the probability of two SEC teams making the play-offs is still fairly high.
ACC
The drama is pretty much over in the Atlantic Division as Clemson is continuing to plow their way through any team in their path. This week's victim: Louisville (+37). Let's just hope no one gets hurt. Other than the Tigers, Boston College still has an exceptionally narrow path to the conference crown, but they will need to get past the Hokies (+1) in Blacksburg. My spreadsheet is not optimistic about the Eagle's chances.
But, as we have come to expect, the real action is in the Coastal Division. Three one-loss (in conference play) teams still remain, and two of them will face off as Pitt will travel to Charlottesville to face UVA (-7). (The other 1-loss team is Virginia Tech, mentioned above). Even the under-card is a bit intriguing as Duke travels to Miami (-7). The Canes might be able to sneak back into the race with a win, but they are on the clock as well and need to make their move now. For all practical purposes, a few more pieces will be off the board in the ACC this week once the dust settles.
Big 12
A look at the standings in the Big 12 reveal that there are three teams with 1 conference loss (Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia) and two teams with 2 conference losses (Texas Tech and Iowa State). As it happens, four of those five teams will by playing each other this week. The main event is West Virginia's road trip to the Austin city limits to face Texas (-2.5). If Texas does win, they would own the tie-breaker against both Oklahoma and West Virginia which would make it much more likely that the Longhorns would at least make the Big 12 Championship Game. My spreadsheet really likes WVU in this one (-8.5), but it has been disappointed by the Mountaineers before this year.
The under-card on the Plains is the sneaky tricky match-up of Oklahoma at Texas Tech (+10.5). The boys from Lubbock have had a better than expected year so far, as they currently sit above 500 in Big 12 play (which was not necessarily expected). While they have wins over Oklahoma State and TCU, they haven't yet had a real season-making win yet. If this game were in Norman, I would not think much of it, but with TTU at home, it does give me pause. A ten-point dog in their own house might be a bit much. My spreadsheet still likes the Sooners, but it does expect a closer game (-6.5).
Pac 12
While the Pac 12 seems to have been reduced to only knights and pawns, that doesn't mean that they still can't have an entertaining finish. After all, the final prize is still a trip to Pasadena, and that is no small thing. After the events of last week, Washington State has emerged as the leader in the North Division. The Cougars (-11) host Cal this week and should be able to emerge from the week still in first place (although that is what Washington thought last week as well). The big match-up in the North Division is Stanford's trip up to Seattle to face the Huskies (-9.5). If Washington does win, they essentially set up a final weekend Apple Cup showdown with Wazzou to decide the Division. If Stanford wins, Wazzou would need to drop two of its final four games for them lose out on the title.
Down South, Utah has emerged as the team to beat, and at least according to my math, Arizona State is their biggest competition. As luck would have it, those two teams will square off in the desert where Utah opened at a 7-point favorite. As it stand now, the Utes are already 3-0 vs Pac 12 South competition with only a road game at Colorado remaining after this week. Overall, my spreadsheet likes the Utes to make their first trip to the Rose Bowl this year (not including UCLA home games, of course).
Independents / Group of Five
As Notre Dame enters the home stretch in their quest for a perfect regular season, this week they face their first of four slightly tricky Power Five match-ups. This week the Irish will jump on I-90 to make the short drive over to Evanston to face the Wildcats (+7). While most people expect the Domers to win this one, this match-up will also almost certainly be a bit of a proxy battle between Michigan and Notre Dame in Playoff Ranking jockeying. While Notre Dame is ranked slightly ahead of the Wolverines in the first college football playoff ranking (because... scoreboard) there is some rumbling that Michigan should be ranked ahead of the Irish (because... I don't know... I guess some people are just that stupid). In other words, style points are going to matter here. If Notre Dame has to come from behind and win a close game, this will help Michigan (because they didn't come from... wait, no they did... yeah, I remember now... people are stupid). However, if the Irish win going away, it is going to make it tough for the Wolverines to jump the Domers. At least, that's how things should work.
On the flip side, if Northwestern manages to win, this will put the selection committee in a very interesting position of whether or not a potential 11-1 Irish squad is still worthy of a Playoff spot. I will cross that bridge if and when we come to it. It also would be a sign that maybe the Wildcats actually are pretty good and may even win the Big Ten West. I still can't quite get over their narrow wins against Nebraska and Rutgers, but I am willing to give them another chance if this win this weekend.
So as not to be left out, members of the AAC also felt like playing a bit of chess this week. As it happens the two top candidates in each division just happen to be facing off with each other this weekend. In the AAC-West, those teams happen to be Houston and SMU (+13) who will face each other in Dallas. The Cougars already have a 2-game lead in the Division, so even a loss here would not be devastating, but it certainly would hurt their shot at a NY6 bid if they eventually win the Conference Title. The biggest game, however, is the Thursday night clash between Temple and UCF (-12). A win by the Owls would send a major shock wave through both the AAC and also the entire Group of Five, as the NY6 bid would all of a sudden by quite up in the air. While my spreadsheet does like Houston and UCF to both win, it doesn't like either team to cover. My gut tells me at least one of those two teams will stumble.
As for the rest of the Group of Five, they are basically just playing checkers this week. Utah State (-17 at Hawaii), Fresno State (-24.5 at UNLV), and UAB (-19.5 vs. UTSA) are all big, big favorites. Buffalo already beat Miami (OH) on Tuesday night and Georgia Southern (-9 at UL Monroe) is just not likely to be relevant for much longer.
That is all I have for now. As always, Go State, beat the Terrapins!
The word Endgame typically refers to chess and not necessarily either College Football or a quest to defeat a mad Titan. In chess, it is the stage of the game where major pieces start getting sacrificed in order to pave the way for final victory… or defeat. In other words, in when crap starts to get real.
Both in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and in this year’s college football season, we have enjoyed years / weeks of anywhere from mediocre (Thor: The Dark World) to great (MSU vs. Penn State and Purdue) entertainment. But looking at both MSU’s schedule and the schedule for the whole week, I think that the 2018 season has arrived at the Endgame. Hold on to your hats folks, because crap is about to get real.
As for MSU, last week’s win was Hulk huge. Had MSU lost, the season would have tilted a bit more towards desperation. A Bowl game would have been in question. But now, it is time once again to try to get a bit greedy and start to see how many wins this MSU team can pile up. 7-8 wins is very possible again, especially if the team can continue to beat back the injury bug and start to regain some health. 9 wins is even on the table again, as crazy as that might sound.
But the challenge at hand this week is a tough road test at Maryland. The line opened at MSU -3 which by my math puts MSU’s chances at 58%. That is a little better than my spreadsheet, which gives Maryland a slight 0.6-point edge. Either way, it is a safe bet to expect a close game.
I must admit that I have not watched too many snaps from the Twerps this year, but their stats and results paint a bit of an odd picture. The per yards stats suggest that they are a good running team (3rd nationally in yards per carry) and a solid rush defense (41st). Their pass defense is also solid (37th) but their passing offense is one of the worst in the country per yard (95th, actually). Their schedule is also a bit bipolar. They own a good win over Minnesota and even own the conference’s best non-conference win of year when they beat Texas in Week 1. However, they also got blown out by Temple in Week 3 and shutout against Iowa. So, who are these masked men?
There are people out there with a much better grasp on the Xs and Ox, but the stats might give as a bit of a hint. The three teams who have beaten Maryland all have very good (statistically) defenses. Temple, Iowa, and Michigan are all in the Top 7 in total defense yards/play. Meanwhile, the bipolar nature of their offense is just another word for “one-dimensional.” When one-dimensional teams face MSU (or any team with a good defense), bad things usually happen to them. Add to this the fact that Maryland’s strength on offense (running) plays right into MSU’s hands and this has the trappings of a good afternoon for MSU.
The flip side is that Maryland’s defense, statistically, is pretty good. It’s much better than Purdue’s, for example. So, there is certainly a chance that MSU’s can’t move the ball either and we find ourselves in a low-score grinder where the team that blinks first loses. That could be trouble on the road. But, I like MSU’s coaches’ ability to manipulate the chess board here. The pieces seem to be getting healthier, and I think they will figure out a way to scheme enough points to win. I am not sure about Maryland’s coaching staff, but let’s just say that they look to be more the checkers playing type. Add that to the mid-week DJ Durkin controversy, and honestly, who knows how that will affect the team. Either way, MSU is on the clock and the next set of moves will determine if this season is ultimately judged as a success or as a failure.
National Overview
Per my normal schedule, here is my prediction chart for Week 10. My spreadsheet likes I like 7 teams to cover: Clemson (not shown / off scale), Cincinnati, Fresno State, NC State, Syracuse, UAB, and Army.
As for upsets, my spreadsheet likes nine total this week, including LSU over Alabama. My spreadsheet also likes Baylor to beat OK State, Colorado over Zona, West Virginia over Texas, Iowa over Purdue, and VA Tech over BC. Oh, and it also likes Maryland to beat MSU. Fortunately, we are not dealing with Deep Blue here, so it will probably be OK... maybe. As for the FPI, it only likes 2 upsets this week: VA Tech and Iowa. My weekly simulation suggests to expect 13.8 ± 3.1 upsets this week.
Big Ten
This is going to be a reoccurring theme this week, but there are a couple of monster games in the Big Ten. Let's start with Older Brother. After a full two-week bender, Cousin Nitt has decided to go over to Older Brother's house to see if he can stage a bit of an intervention. If successful, the whole family will breath a deep sigh of relief. If Cousin Nitt fails, well, Older Brother's bender will likely continue to rage until the Thanksgiving at Cousin Brutus' house. Fortunately, Cousin Brutus has great track record of smacking sense into Older Brother and getting him back on the wagon for a while. Then again, Cousin Brutus may be a bit under the weather...
Michigan enters the Penn State game as a 10-point favorite, which translates to 76% chance of victory. If Michigan wins, Penn State and MSU are essentially eliminated from the Big Ten race. But, if the Lions win, the rest of the season all of a sudden gets really, really interesting. In general, Michigan is strutting around like they are a Queen right now, when in fact I think that it is more likely that they are a Bishop. The problem is that it isn't clear if there are any Queens left on the board. I'm not sure if there are even any Rooks. We likely won't know for sure until bowl season.
As for the Big Ten West, Iowa has a major test at Purdue (-1.5). The Boilers are hoping to bounce back from last weeks loss. Sorry, Boilers. (Not actually sorry.) My spreadsheet continues to love Iowa, but they are running out of time to prove that they are worthy of that love. One more loss and the Hawkeyes are out of the race and resigned to fighting for a spot in the Holiday Bowl. (You could do worse, Hawkeyes.) As for Purdue, they need to figure out if they are a Big Ten contender or a 500 team. The difference between the two is frighteningly close right now, especially in the West.
Finally, in other action Rutgers is a huge underdog at Wisconsin (-30), and Minnesota is inching towards Bowl eligibility at Illinois (+9.5). Northwestern also has a suddenly very intriguing visit from Notre Dame this week (more on that later). But, for me the other game to watch is Nebraska at Ohio State (-21). Will the Buckeyes start playing up to their potential after their beat-down in West Lafayette, or are the Wheels on C-Bus coming off? That is a major story line to watch for the month of November.
SEC
There have been some big games in the SEC this year, but Week 10 is truly the Endgame in conference play. First, the East is now dead simple. Georgia travels to Lexington to face Kentucky (+10). The winner wins the East. That's it. As for the West, Alabama travels to Baton Rouge to face LSU (+14). If Bama wins, they take the West. That's it as well. But, if LSU wins, the race is not quite over. The Tigers would need to survive their final two conference games, including a non-layup trip to College Station in the final week of the year. For me, the spreads in both games look quite high. My spreadsheet think the UGA-UK game will be closer than 10-points, while it also likes LSU to win straight-up. We will see who is right. As for the other games... well, it is just a bunch of mediocre (by SEC standards) teams jockeying for bowl position.
The other interesting subplot to all of this is very real question of what happens to Alabama if they lose to LSU and fail once again to make the SEC Title game? I would argue that on some level, their odds to make the Playoff are actually better if they lose to LSU. Why? Because there is no longer a risk that they lose the SEC Title game on a neutral field. Losing to LSU on the road is forgivable. Losing on a neutral field to Georgia (for example) may not be. Either way, the probability of two SEC teams making the play-offs is still fairly high.
ACC
The drama is pretty much over in the Atlantic Division as Clemson is continuing to plow their way through any team in their path. This week's victim: Louisville (+37). Let's just hope no one gets hurt. Other than the Tigers, Boston College still has an exceptionally narrow path to the conference crown, but they will need to get past the Hokies (+1) in Blacksburg. My spreadsheet is not optimistic about the Eagle's chances.
But, as we have come to expect, the real action is in the Coastal Division. Three one-loss (in conference play) teams still remain, and two of them will face off as Pitt will travel to Charlottesville to face UVA (-7). (The other 1-loss team is Virginia Tech, mentioned above). Even the under-card is a bit intriguing as Duke travels to Miami (-7). The Canes might be able to sneak back into the race with a win, but they are on the clock as well and need to make their move now. For all practical purposes, a few more pieces will be off the board in the ACC this week once the dust settles.
Big 12
A look at the standings in the Big 12 reveal that there are three teams with 1 conference loss (Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia) and two teams with 2 conference losses (Texas Tech and Iowa State). As it happens, four of those five teams will by playing each other this week. The main event is West Virginia's road trip to the Austin city limits to face Texas (-2.5). If Texas does win, they would own the tie-breaker against both Oklahoma and West Virginia which would make it much more likely that the Longhorns would at least make the Big 12 Championship Game. My spreadsheet really likes WVU in this one (-8.5), but it has been disappointed by the Mountaineers before this year.
The under-card on the Plains is the sneaky tricky match-up of Oklahoma at Texas Tech (+10.5). The boys from Lubbock have had a better than expected year so far, as they currently sit above 500 in Big 12 play (which was not necessarily expected). While they have wins over Oklahoma State and TCU, they haven't yet had a real season-making win yet. If this game were in Norman, I would not think much of it, but with TTU at home, it does give me pause. A ten-point dog in their own house might be a bit much. My spreadsheet still likes the Sooners, but it does expect a closer game (-6.5).
Pac 12
While the Pac 12 seems to have been reduced to only knights and pawns, that doesn't mean that they still can't have an entertaining finish. After all, the final prize is still a trip to Pasadena, and that is no small thing. After the events of last week, Washington State has emerged as the leader in the North Division. The Cougars (-11) host Cal this week and should be able to emerge from the week still in first place (although that is what Washington thought last week as well). The big match-up in the North Division is Stanford's trip up to Seattle to face the Huskies (-9.5). If Washington does win, they essentially set up a final weekend Apple Cup showdown with Wazzou to decide the Division. If Stanford wins, Wazzou would need to drop two of its final four games for them lose out on the title.
Down South, Utah has emerged as the team to beat, and at least according to my math, Arizona State is their biggest competition. As luck would have it, those two teams will square off in the desert where Utah opened at a 7-point favorite. As it stand now, the Utes are already 3-0 vs Pac 12 South competition with only a road game at Colorado remaining after this week. Overall, my spreadsheet likes the Utes to make their first trip to the Rose Bowl this year (not including UCLA home games, of course).
Independents / Group of Five
As Notre Dame enters the home stretch in their quest for a perfect regular season, this week they face their first of four slightly tricky Power Five match-ups. This week the Irish will jump on I-90 to make the short drive over to Evanston to face the Wildcats (+7). While most people expect the Domers to win this one, this match-up will also almost certainly be a bit of a proxy battle between Michigan and Notre Dame in Playoff Ranking jockeying. While Notre Dame is ranked slightly ahead of the Wolverines in the first college football playoff ranking (because... scoreboard) there is some rumbling that Michigan should be ranked ahead of the Irish (because... I don't know... I guess some people are just that stupid). In other words, style points are going to matter here. If Notre Dame has to come from behind and win a close game, this will help Michigan (because they didn't come from... wait, no they did... yeah, I remember now... people are stupid). However, if the Irish win going away, it is going to make it tough for the Wolverines to jump the Domers. At least, that's how things should work.
On the flip side, if Northwestern manages to win, this will put the selection committee in a very interesting position of whether or not a potential 11-1 Irish squad is still worthy of a Playoff spot. I will cross that bridge if and when we come to it. It also would be a sign that maybe the Wildcats actually are pretty good and may even win the Big Ten West. I still can't quite get over their narrow wins against Nebraska and Rutgers, but I am willing to give them another chance if this win this weekend.
So as not to be left out, members of the AAC also felt like playing a bit of chess this week. As it happens the two top candidates in each division just happen to be facing off with each other this weekend. In the AAC-West, those teams happen to be Houston and SMU (+13) who will face each other in Dallas. The Cougars already have a 2-game lead in the Division, so even a loss here would not be devastating, but it certainly would hurt their shot at a NY6 bid if they eventually win the Conference Title. The biggest game, however, is the Thursday night clash between Temple and UCF (-12). A win by the Owls would send a major shock wave through both the AAC and also the entire Group of Five, as the NY6 bid would all of a sudden by quite up in the air. While my spreadsheet does like Houston and UCF to both win, it doesn't like either team to cover. My gut tells me at least one of those two teams will stumble.
As for the rest of the Group of Five, they are basically just playing checkers this week. Utah State (-17 at Hawaii), Fresno State (-24.5 at UNLV), and UAB (-19.5 vs. UTSA) are all big, big favorites. Buffalo already beat Miami (OH) on Tuesday night and Georgia Southern (-9 at UL Monroe) is just not likely to be relevant for much longer.
That is all I have for now. As always, Go State, beat the Terrapins!
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