Sibling rivalries are sometimes the worst. When the kids are
young, the older brother will often pick on the younger brother
mercilessly. Sometime the older brother will just refuse to play with the
younger brother at all, or if he does agree to play, he makes up rules or
changes them to make sure he always comes out on top. As the younger brother
get older and smarter, he figures out how to outwit his somewhat oafish older
brother from time to time, but that just makes him angry.
But, at some point the two
brothers both become adults and are more or less in the same league. In
some families this marks the end of the sibling rivalry. But, at other
times, it just makes things worse. This can also be exacerbated if the younger
brother also happens to be smarter, better looking, more charming, more
athletic, with better hygiene, etc. It can cause a seething jealousy by
the older brother that can explode anytime the younger brother has a run of
success. Even as adults, the older brother will sometimes run to Mom to
complain about how he's the good son and little bother is always doing
something wrong.
In the case that I am thinking
of, there is even one more complication, and that is that the older brother
happens to be an alcoholic. He drank a lot in his younger days, but frankly, he
has never been able to hold his liquor and things usually went off the
rails. More recently, his younger brother held an intervention and took
the bottle away for a few years. Sure, there was a slip up here and
there, but in general he was doing better, and some of the other family members
thought that he might make it. Sadly, however, this weekend he went off
the wagon again, and it looks like it might not end well for anyone.
Yes, Wolverines, you are the
older brother, and winning is like 200 proof vodka to you.
And, therein lies the problem.
Winning isn't good for them. It makes them do and say bad, stupid things (like
in press conferences). When they lose, all they can think about is winning, and
it messes with their heads. MSU fans have been living there, rent free for a
decade. But, when they win, all the pent-up anger and jealously just comes out
in a big avalanche of petty, bitter, childish behavior, like the petulant
children that they are. If there is such a thing as a sore winner, it wears
maize and blue. Even though losing hurts, it is the only way for them to
truly get better, to learn some humility, and to be able to function in society
like normal human beings. You would think that losing 8 out of 10 would
have taught them something, but just like any other serious addict, I think
that they just need to quit cold turkey.
So, you see Michigan fans, we
actually do want what's best for you. We want you to feel
better in the long run, even if that means you have to keep losing for years,
or even decades. Whatever it takes, we are here to help you keep losing. We
root against you because we care.
That's why I will be rooting against the Wolverines for the rest of this year,
and for many years beyond. And, it's why you should too.
As for actual football stuff.
Well, yeah, it sucked. I honestly thought that MSU had a good shot to
win. I figured that the defense would play well and that the offense would be
motivated and sharp and would find a way to manufacture enough points to at
least stay in the game. In the end, I figured the Wolverines would pucker
and choke, and MSU would get to keep Paul for another year. Alas, it was
not meant to be.
Based on the last 12 years of
this rivalry, that was the most likely outcome. But, I certainly could
not predict that Felton Davis would go down for good or that Matt Allen would
get hurt or that Lewerke wasn't 100% or that Michigan would get not one but two
miracle deflections. So yeah, Michigan won, and they even covered for the first
time in 12 years. Congratulations, weasels, on beating perhaps the most
severely injured MSU team in a generation.
Yeah, yeah, "that's just
an excuse. Everyone has injuries. We lost. They won. Next man up."
Sure. Ok. Next man up. Sounds all well and good. But how about
next, next, next, next, next, next man up? How is that supposed to work?
I'll tell you: not well.
But the hilarious thing is that
the Wolverines obviously don't get what really happened. They don't get
that they while their defense was truly dominant, it dominated a shell of the
MSU offense. They think that this is now the new normal. In general
studies, they must teach that a trend is formed by a single data point. What
happens when MSU returns to Ann Arbor with a (God-willing) more healthy team
next year? I've got bad news for you Wolverine fans: Mark Dantonio is
still our coach, and no matter who is roaming your sidelines, Dantonio is going
to field a very competitive team more times than not. History has shown
that Michigan rarely, if ever, beats good MSU teams. That is not likely
to change.
It is obvious from the
pre-game, in-game, and especially post-game behavior that they think they just
won the series somehow. That the pesky green and white monkey is finally off
their back for good and it's now the 1970s again. So, they shoot off their
mouths and just add gasoline to the fire. Haven't we seen this movie before?
Bush league? Little brother? OK, morons. I got another one for you, "it's
not over. It will never be over. It's just getting started." See you
in 2019.
But, back here is 2018, the
Spartans still have a season to try to finish, and frankly, it is not looking
good. My metrics now calculate an expected win total of 6.44, with a 46%
chance to get to 7 wins and an 83% chance to make a Bowl. But, that math
assumes that can MSU continue to play at a level that is at the average of
their performance so far this year. Based on the now catastrophic situation
on the offense, that just doesn't seem likely. MSU is at 4 wins.
Rutgers is still on the schedule and they are still awful. So, 5 wins seems
doable.
But, as optimistic as I am,
where does that 6th win come from? Purdue? Maybe. It's at home and that
has worked out great so far this year... wait... At Maryland? They at least
seem to be trending down right now, but that one is on the road. At
Nebraska? They were a mess early, but they just hung 53 points on the
Gophers. Ohio State? If MSU can get healthier, I would not rule it out but...
yeah.
So, it looks like it is going
to be a bit a of green-and-white-knuckle ride from here on out. We all
just need to hang on tight and hope for the best.
National Overview
Shown below is my results chart for Week 8. My algorithm almost (but not quite) hit 500 this week at 26-28 (48%), which was identical to the performance of the FPI. Year-to-date, I am now 196-221 (47%). For covers, I only went 3-5 (37.5%), bringing the total to 49-48 (50.5%) for the year.
As for upsets, I only counted 7 this week,
which is 1.8 standard deviations from the excepted 12.2 upsets, meaning this
was a particularly quiet week. Overall, I went 3-5 (38%), while the poor FPI
only got 1 of 4 (25%). My total for the season is now 25-37 (40.3%),
while the FPI is 19-15 (56%). Purdue's upset over the Buckeyes was very
clearly the upset of the week.
Big Ten
For those of us that are rooting for
Michigan to finally kick their dangerous and destructive addiction, it was a
terrible week in the Big Ten. Michigan
won, and Ohio State, who has been playing with matches for weeks, finally set
themselves on fire in West Lafayette. Furthermore,
Penn State struggled on the road to beat Indiana. So now, instead of the Big Ten East looking
like the SEC West, it looks more like the Pac 12 South. Woof. When the dust settled, I now have Michigan
with almost an 80% chance to win the East. I just threw up in my mouth a
little.
However, the sudden dumpster fire in the
East was not the only story in the Big Ten this week. Out West, things are getting interesting.
Wisconsin bounced back from their debacle in Ann Arbor last week to down
Illinois. Northwestern escaped disaster yet again by coming from behind to beat
New Jersey’s top Big Ten squad. Iowa
impressively blanked Maryland, and then of course there was Purdue’s upset win
over the Buckeyes. All four team now
have just a single loss in conference play, and at least in principle, the race
is wide open.
My algorithm has been high on the Hawkeyes
for a few weeks now, and a shutout win did nothing to shake its
confidence. I actually have Iowa ranked
#4 overall with a ~70% chance to win the West and better odds than Michigan
(~45%) to win the conference and make the playoffs. While this seems farfetched, there is a
chance my math is seeing something that the “experts” just aren’t seeing. Wisconsin, while still in the driver’s seat
with a head-to-head win over Iowa, projects to only have an 18% chance to make
it to Indy, while (Boiler Up!) Purdue is up to 11%. This is going to be a fun race to watch. Finally, Nebraska scored 53 points this week....
Whut?
SEC
It was not supposed to be an eventful week in the SEC and… It
wasn’t. Alabama, LSU, and Kentucky all
won, and the Division races are still pretty much status quo. The Bama-LSU game in two weeks still looks
like it will settle things, and my spreadsheet is giving the Tigers better odds
than I expected at 34%. Even if LSU
beats back the Tide, though, they would still need to escape from Texas A&M
at the end of the year with a “W.”
Out East, it still looks like a 3-man race between Kentucky,
Georgia, and Florida. Kentucky is a bit
of a tough team to figure out, as they already own a win against Florida, but
also a loss at Texas A&M. They also
struggled a bit to beat Vandy this weekend.
My math still really likes the Cats and favors them to win the East
(42%) over both Georgia (30%) and Florida (28%). With the Dawgs facing off against both teams
in the next two weeks, we will have our answer soon enough. In general, though, my spreadsheet loves it
some SEC right now, as it ranks 5 teams in the Top 7 of its power rankings.
ACC
While it was a fairly quiet week in the ACC, some questions
were answered and at least one new one appeared. First, Clemson took care of NC
State quite convincingly, and they now have a commanding lead in Atlantic
Division. Actually, I peg their odds at 99.7% to make it to the ACC title
game. Pretty much the only thing in
their way is a little road trip to Boston in a few weeks to face BC. However, even if the Eagles were to win that
game, they would still need to win out over Miami, Virginia Tech, and Florida
State to have that win matter. Possible? Mathematically, I suppose, but don’t
bet on it.
Down in the Coastal Division, the new question is: how good
is Virginia? The Cavaliers managed to go into Durham and get a “W” 28-14 over
Duke this week. The Cavs are now 3-1 in
league play and my power rankings now have them up to #27 and neck-and-neck
with Virginia Tech in odds to win the division (47% vs. 45%). With their remaining schedule rather manageable,
9-10 wins is possible. They do have to travel to Blacksburg to attempt the
Hokie-Pokey at the end of the year, and that contest will likely decide who
gets to get mauled by Clemson in the ACC Title game.
Big 12
Let’s see… in Big 12 action this week… Oklahoma beat TCU. Also, Texas’ strength of schedule must have
taken a beating, as they dropped 9 slots in my rankings and their odds to win
the conference fell by 9 percentage points despite the fact that they stayed on
the couch this week. Overall, my math
still likes the Mountaineers (39%) to prevail over the Sooners (35%). Let’s try
to be more interesting next week, shall we Big 12?
Pac 12
Sometimes, I don’t really understand my own math that much.
Case in point is the Pac 12 North this week.
There were no big upsets this week; in fact, there were no upsets at
all. Washington beat Colorado, Stanford took care of Arizona State, and Washington
State beat Oregon in front of the Game Day crew. All three teams are holding
steady with one loss in conference play.
On the face of it, I would have thought the Wazzou win over the Ducks
would have impressed my spreadsheet the most, but surprisingly, the Cougars
actually dropped 1 slot in my rankings, while both Stanford and Washington
inched up a bit. As a result, the
Huskies (57%) and Cardinal’s (25%) odds to win the division went up slightly
this week, while Wazzou’s went down (18%).
My calculations really don’t like the Ducks, so I suppose that is the
main explanation. I will say this, though, Washington State is the only 1-loss
team left in the Pac 12, and due to this fact, I still give them a 3% chance to
make the Playoffs. Who knows? Maybe The
Pirate will get the last laugh after all.
Down South, much of the division got roughed up by their
northern brethren this week, but Utah was able to dispose of the Trojans,
41-28. I now project the Utes to have
almost a 50-50 shot to win the South. My spreadsheet really doesn’t like USC at
all (ranked #60),but taking a quick look at their schedule makes me wonder if the
Trojans are going to pull this one out in the end. Utah’s late season trip to Eugene is making
me nervous on their behalf. Meanwhile, USC’s toughest game left appears to be
at UCLA. Speaking of the Bruins, they
somehow took out Arizona and are now officially on a winning streak after
dropping their first 5 games.
Group of Five
With Notre Dame on a bye week this week, we can turn our full
attention to the Group of Five. In the AAC East, the first big showdown of the
year happened this weekend, as Temple managed to edge the Cincinnati Bearcats
in OT to hand them their first loss. As
you might guess, this put a serious dent in Cincy’s hopes of making a NY6 Bowl,
as I their odds of winning the East dropped to 13%. My math suggests Temple (49%) is the new
favorite, but UCF (37%) will get a chance to beat the Owls in Orlando in just a
few weeks. South Florida is also still
somehow undefeated after several lackluster performances over really, really
bad teams. (This week, let’s almost lose
to UCONN!) My spreadsheet ranks them #94
overall with less than a 1% chance to win the division. Meanwhile, in the West, Houston sunk Navy to
stay on track to win the West.
If a team like 3-loss Temple wins the AAC, the champs of the
other Group of Five conferences will be ready to possibly snatch that NY6 Bowl
spot. In the Mountain West, Fresno State
is my current best guess as the champ, but Utah State is also looking quite
good. San Diego State is also in position,
but they almost screwed the pooch this week against San Jose State and their
odds dropped accordingly.
In MACtion, Buffalo got a big win over Toledo this week to
strengthen their hold on the MAC East, as well as the MAC’s only chance for a
NY6 big. Also, Western Michigan is 4-0
in MAC plays with increasing odds to win the MAC West.
Similar to the MAC, CUSA has one
team with a shot at the NY6, and that team is UAB. The Blazers scored a big win over the Mean
Green of North Texas to solidify their grip on the C-USA West as well as stay
alive in the NY6 race.
Finally, watch out for App State out of the Sunbelt. My
power rankings have them all the way up at #14 with a projected 91% chance to
win the Sunbelt Championship. With their
sole loss being the OT game at Penn State, it seems like they could make a case
for a NY6 bid.
And finally.
If the Season Ended
this Week… That Would be Weird.
After Week 8’s action, below I show my updated Playoff
projections. The Top 3 are not
surprises: Clemson (84%), Notre Dame (78%), and Bama (65%). The percentages seem reasonable based on the
level of difficult left for each team.
The fourth team this week is a bit of a surprise, and that is your Iowa
Hawkeyes (36%). Before you ask, no, I
did not cook the books just to troll Michigan fans. Right now, my math just likes Iowa
better. Michigan’s odds (25%) are still
good for 5th best overall, with Oklahoma and Florida both hanging
around.
That does it for this week.
My schedule is a bit off, as I am currently on a plane bound for Tokyo
as I type this. Look for my Week 9
preview coming up later in the week.
Until then, and as always, Go State, Beat the Boilers!
Comments
Post a Comment