One of my favorite movies of all time is Apollo 13. There are a lot of great quotes in that great film, but one exchange in particular has been running through my head this week. Just after the accident that almost cost three astronauts their lives, the team at mission control was trying to figure out what happened, and flight director Gene Kranz says,
"Let's look at this thing from a standpoint of status... What do we got on the spacecraft that's good?"
[pause]
"I'll get back to you, Gene."
MSU's season is starting to feel a little like Apollo 13. It once held a lot of promise of adventure and triumph, and now it is on the brink of disaster. MSU coaches, on the offense in particular, are trying to figure out what on the ship is still good, and if the mission can even be salvaged at all. Houston, we have a problem.
In retrospect, two weeks ago if I would have told you that MSU was going to split the series with Penn State and Michigan, I think we would have all been pretty happy. Actually, if I would have told you that in August I think we would all have been pretty satisfied. Then again, we would all have assumed that that win would have come against Michigan. After the sadly predictable antics by our oafish older brother in Ann Arbor this week and now the predictably myopic response form the Big Ten, that scenario would have felt 1000x times better. But, here we are.
So, now it is time to focus on the Boilermakers. In one of the preseason analyses that I did, I called out two Big Ten teams as being possible surprises gems this year, because based on my calculations, they were both a bit unlucky last year and may have been better than we realized. Those teams were Iowa and Purdue. All of a sudden, both teams are surging and the Boilers are steaming to town the broken husk of Brutus stuck in their cow-catcher. Neat.
At this point, MSU needs to focus on one goal at a time. The main goal now is a get enough wins to play in a bowl game in order to build momentum for next year's campaign. With Rutgers on the schedule, 5 wins should be doable, but for that 6th win, this week's contest might just be the most winnable. Purdue may not be the 2nd weakest team on the schedule, but this one is at home. If nothing else, the more losses pile up, the more pressure will be lobbed on this beaten and battered roster. This is a big game for both teams, as Purdue now has a shot to take the West and make it to Indy for the 1st time.
As for this particular game, I don't know what to think. The line opened at Purdue -1, which is frankly better than my math predicted (-6.1). So, basically, it's a coin flip. That said, in an ironic twist, ESPN's FPI actually likes MSU in an upset this week. The FPI is over 50% for upset picks this year, so that is a sign of hope if you are looking for one. Similar to the last several weeks, it really comes down to how healthy MSU's skill players are. Is Lewerke closer to 100%? If not, is Rocky ready? Do we literally have any WRs that are over 50% healthy? Your guess is as good as mine.
In any event, the offensive staff has the challenge of trying to fashion a square canister to fit in a round hole. It might be possible, but it won't be pretty. And, a lot is on the line. As I close out my preamble (pre-ramble?) this week, I will leave you with yet another great quote from Apollo 13:
NASA Director: "This could be the worst disaster NASA's ever experienced."
Gene Kranz: "With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour."
If Mark Dantonio can find a way to get this team to 8 wins and then a 9th in a Bowl Game, it will perhaps be his greatest coaching accomplishment to date.
National Overview
A quick glance at the prediction graph for this week suggests that we could be in for a very wild weekend. After the fairly quiet week a last (not counting the audible mouth-breathing from Ann Arbor), almost 60% of all games this week have a spread which opened at 7 or less. As for covers, I have 8 total (North Texas, Fresno, Colorado, Clemson, Virginia, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and Duke)
But, upsets are where it might be at this week. With so many tight spreads, my spreadsheet likes a total of 14 and the usually conservative FPI likes 6. My weekly simulation suggests to expect 16.7 +/- 3.2 upsets this week, so it looks like it is going to be a wild ride.
"Let's look at this thing from a standpoint of status... What do we got on the spacecraft that's good?"
[pause]
"I'll get back to you, Gene."
MSU's season is starting to feel a little like Apollo 13. It once held a lot of promise of adventure and triumph, and now it is on the brink of disaster. MSU coaches, on the offense in particular, are trying to figure out what on the ship is still good, and if the mission can even be salvaged at all. Houston, we have a problem.
In retrospect, two weeks ago if I would have told you that MSU was going to split the series with Penn State and Michigan, I think we would have all been pretty happy. Actually, if I would have told you that in August I think we would all have been pretty satisfied. Then again, we would all have assumed that that win would have come against Michigan. After the sadly predictable antics by our oafish older brother in Ann Arbor this week and now the predictably myopic response form the Big Ten, that scenario would have felt 1000x times better. But, here we are.
So, now it is time to focus on the Boilermakers. In one of the preseason analyses that I did, I called out two Big Ten teams as being possible surprises gems this year, because based on my calculations, they were both a bit unlucky last year and may have been better than we realized. Those teams were Iowa and Purdue. All of a sudden, both teams are surging and the Boilers are steaming to town the broken husk of Brutus stuck in their cow-catcher. Neat.
At this point, MSU needs to focus on one goal at a time. The main goal now is a get enough wins to play in a bowl game in order to build momentum for next year's campaign. With Rutgers on the schedule, 5 wins should be doable, but for that 6th win, this week's contest might just be the most winnable. Purdue may not be the 2nd weakest team on the schedule, but this one is at home. If nothing else, the more losses pile up, the more pressure will be lobbed on this beaten and battered roster. This is a big game for both teams, as Purdue now has a shot to take the West and make it to Indy for the 1st time.
As for this particular game, I don't know what to think. The line opened at Purdue -1, which is frankly better than my math predicted (-6.1). So, basically, it's a coin flip. That said, in an ironic twist, ESPN's FPI actually likes MSU in an upset this week. The FPI is over 50% for upset picks this year, so that is a sign of hope if you are looking for one. Similar to the last several weeks, it really comes down to how healthy MSU's skill players are. Is Lewerke closer to 100%? If not, is Rocky ready? Do we literally have any WRs that are over 50% healthy? Your guess is as good as mine.
In any event, the offensive staff has the challenge of trying to fashion a square canister to fit in a round hole. It might be possible, but it won't be pretty. And, a lot is on the line. As I close out my preamble (pre-ramble?) this week, I will leave you with yet another great quote from Apollo 13:
NASA Director: "This could be the worst disaster NASA's ever experienced."
Gene Kranz: "With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour."
If Mark Dantonio can find a way to get this team to 8 wins and then a 9th in a Bowl Game, it will perhaps be his greatest coaching accomplishment to date.
National Overview
A quick glance at the prediction graph for this week suggests that we could be in for a very wild weekend. After the fairly quiet week a last (not counting the audible mouth-breathing from Ann Arbor), almost 60% of all games this week have a spread which opened at 7 or less. As for covers, I have 8 total (North Texas, Fresno, Colorado, Clemson, Virginia, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and Duke)
But, upsets are where it might be at this week. With so many tight spreads, my spreadsheet likes a total of 14 and the usually conservative FPI likes 6. My weekly simulation suggests to expect 16.7 +/- 3.2 upsets this week, so it looks like it is going to be a wild ride.
Big Ten
After the dumpster fire of the week the Big Ten East had last week, the two remaining main contenders (Ohio State and Michigan) are taking the week off to sleep off their hangovers. The Wolverines are expected to use the week to inject Everclear directly into their eyeballs while simultaneously shouting that everyone is drunk expect them. As a result, this week is really all about the race in the West, with 3 games that will likely start to separate the cadets from the astronauts.
First of all, Wisconsin travels to Evanston to face Northwestern (+6.5) is a battle of two teams that somehow both only have one conference loss. Both teams have looked like hot garbage on multiple occasions this year, so who knows about this one. I personally am rooting for Wisconsin to get knocked out of the race, as we have already seen what they look like against the competitive teams in the East. We don't need to see that movie again.
The other two Big Ten West contenders both have two critical road games against former East contenders. Purdue travels MSU (+1) as we know, but the most interesting game is Iowa at Penn State (+5.5). While Vegas and the FPI like the Lions in this one, my spreadsheet likes the Hawkeyes... a lot. Like 10 points a lot. This game in particular is an interesting test of my methodology. My calculations have liked Iowa for a while and this game gives them a chance to prove that they are a real West Division and Big Ten contender.
SEC
While nothing is going to be settled in the West this week with both Alabama and LSU on a bye (they face off next week) it is a big week in the East and in the SEC in general with 5 contests all with spreads under 8 points. In the West, there is one game of consequence as Texas A&M travels to Starkville to face Mississippi State (-2.5). While Vegas likes the other MSU, my spreadsheet likes the Aggies in a close one. If A&M is going to have any chance at all to somehow steal the West (unlikely) they need to win this one.
Out East, the game of the week Nationally is the world's largest outdoor cocktail party as Florida squares off with Georgia (-6.5). (Is is rumored that Older Brother heard the word "cocktail" and has already ordered an Uber to see if he can make the tailgate. Then again, I think he believes the game will be played in Jackson and not Jacksonville, so he will likely just wind up in the State Penitentiary.) The winner of this game essentially gets to stay in the SEC East race with Kentucky, while the loser's odds to win the division plummet. For both teams, failure is not an option if they want to stay in the SEC East race. A Georgia win especially will set up a final battle with Kentucky in Lexington next week. If Florida wins, they just need UK to drop one and they will return to the SEC Title game. In order to stay in this race, however, Kentucky is going to have to win at Missouri (-6.5) this week. Much like Iowa's situation, my spreadsheet really likes the Wildcats, and this is their chance to show that are fit to stay in the space race.
ACC
While Clemson is the overwhelming favorite to win the Atlantic Division and the ACC in general, they still have to go through the motions and beat the teams that they are supposed to beat. Next up for the Tigers is a game at Florida State (+15.5) which looked a lot scarier in August than it does now. The only team that seems to have any shot at all at taking out the Tiger is Boston College, but they need to survive Miami (-1.5) at home. While my spreadsheet likes Miami to cover, the weather forecast calls for rain and temps in the high 40s... Uh oh...
While the race for the Atlantic Title is almost settled, the Coastal Division race still looks like it has some twists and turns coming. The two Virginia schools have rocketed to the top of the standings, and they both are favorites at home this week. The Hokies (-4.5) host GA Tech, while the Cavaliers (-8.5) get the Tar heals. Technically, Pitt is still hanging around as well with only one conference loss. The Panthers (+2.5) will try to stay they as they play host to Duke.
Big 12
Last week, I politely asked the Big 12 to try to do something interesting this week. Their reply resounding "failure to launch." I mean, I guess the match featuring Texas at Oklahoma State (+1.5) could get interesting, especially considering the Longhorns are 4-0 and the Cowboys are 1-3, yet the spread is less than a safety. Odd. As for the other contenders, Oklahoma (-22) and West Virginia (-14) are both big favorites at home against Kansas State and Baylor respectively. Other than that, Texas Tech is still technically in the race as well with only one conference loss. That will no longer be the case unless they can reach escape velocity in Ames with a win over Iowa State (-4.5).
Pac 12
Out west this week in the North Division, Washington (-11.5) looks like a safe bet to hold onto their half game lead as long as they can beat the rocket scientists from Berkeley. However, the battle for the Huskies’ biggest competitor will take place this week as Washington State makes the trip to Palo Alto to face Stanford (-2.5). Washington still needs to face both teams in the coming weeks, but the winner will have a leg up.
Meanwhile, down south, it is pretty clear that none of these teams are very good. This week will give many of them a chance to show that they are less bad than their opponent. My analysis suggests that Utah is the current favorite and they should be safe to stay that way with a trip to Pasadena to face UCLA (+10.5). No word on whether or not they will visit JPL while they are there. Meanwhile, USC (-4) will try to keep pace by playing host to Arizona State. My spreadsheet actually likes the Sun Devils in a mild upset. Colorado is still hanging around as well, and they are very likely to stay that way as they play host to hapless Oregon State (+24).
Independents / Group of Five
When we last left Notre Dame, they were staging a furious come-from-behind win over Pitt. After a week off to give them time for their heart rate to get back down into the normal range, they are easing into things with a nice, soft, neutral-field game against Navy (+21.5).
In the AAC, both UCF and Temple have the week offs, but there are a pair of East-West cross-over games that bear mentioning. South Florida has been limping along every week, but they keep winning and they are somehow one of only five undefeated teams in the FBS. I expect that to come to an end this week, however, as the Bulls travel to West Division leader Houston (-8). I do not expect Houston to have a problem. Also notable is Cincinnati's trip to Dallas to face SMU (+8.5). The Mustangs are on a bit of an uptick and are only a game behind Houston, but I think the Bearcats will put them down this weekend.
Action in the Mountain West is a bit light this week, as Frenso State (-23) and Utah State (-23.5) are both big favorites over Hawaii and New Mexico. However, if San Diego State (-3) wants to stay relevant, they are going to need to get out of Reno with a win. In MACtion, Buffalo is on a bye, and new West Division favorites Western Michigan (-4) have a nice little home test against Toledo. In C-USA, East leader Florida International (-4.5) might get a test at Western Kentucky, while West leader UAB (-17.5) looks to cruise at UTEP. Finally, Appalachian State has what will likely be their toughest remaining test this year as they travel to Georgia Southern (+9.5).
That is all I have for now. I have safely arrived in Japan and need to decide if I am going to split up my sleep and watch the MSU-Purdue game at 1 AM. It will be a game time decision. Until then, and always, Go State, Beat the Boilers.
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