In my preview of Week 9, I asked the question "what on the MSU ship is still good?" Well, as it turns out, a lot of things are still good. First of all, MSU still has a defense, and damn it (Janet) they are still pretty darn good. Second, despite the injuries, we still have a group of guys that can catch the ball, and (get this) some of them are tight ends! Third, while we await Brian Lewerke's shoulder to heal a bit more, we found that we have a back-up QB with a blond mane and a strong arm who just demonstrated that he has the power to stop an on-coming, runaway train.
Oh, Rocky.
He's now the toast of the town. As you might have seen live (perhaps after enjoying a Frankfurter), watched on TV, streamed on an iPad in a Japanese hotel room, or read about in newspaper, Purdue came into the game as the hottest team in the Big Ten. But, MSU turned back the Riff Raff and sent them home for failing their mission. Was Rocky perfect? Certainly not. But, he got the job done, and if nothing else his moxy injected some much needed energy into MSU's offense.While it may be a bit early to break out the confetti or party hats, There is a Light now once again at the end of the tunnel for MSU. The rest of the season holds promise once more.
With the win over Purdue, MSU now sits at 5-3 with 3 very winnable games left on the schedule, although two of those are on the road. My calculations peg MSU's expected value of wins to now be at 7.40, with about a 75% chance that MSU finished with either 7 or 8 wins (with 7 being slightly more likely). On the brighter side, I even give MSU a 9% chance to run the table and equal last year's total of 9 wins. On the not-so-bright side, I still give 6-6 an 14% chance. A Bowl Game, however, does seem almost assured, at 99.6%.
Getting excited about just making a bowl game may seem a bit hollow, but after what this offense has been through, I think that it is a tremendous success. But, I will also remind you that the race for the Big Ten East is not yet over. As some have pointed out, in a four-team tie-breaker between MSU, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan, MSU would be the team to go to Indy. I peg those odds at 0.8% right now. That may not be great odds, but they are non-zero. Great Scott!
National Overview
Here is my weekly summary of the results of Week 9. Overall, I went 27-28 (49%) ATS and 3-5 for covers (37.5%) bringing my annual totals to 52-53 (49.5%) for covers and 223-249 (47%) ATS. The FPI was 34-21 (62%) ATS for the week. As the chart shows, it was a very good week for teams like Clemson and West Virginia... and a really bad week for a lot of other teams.
When it comes to upsets, for the favored teams this week it was essentially a Horror Picture Show. I count an astounding 27 upsets, just short of 50% of all games, as tabulated below. A lot of upsets mean a lot of correct upset picks. I went 10-4 (71%) while the FPI went 6-0 (100%). I'm now 35-41 (46%) while the FPI is 26-18 (59%) year-to-date. To put this in a bit of perspective, 27 was over 3 standard deviations from the expected 16.7 upsets. Every week I perform a simple simulation which is basically a series of weighted coin flips for each game. In 2,000 simulations for the week, only 1 resulted in 27 upsets, and that was the maximum number observed. I seriously think that this is a once-in-a-century type of result. If nothing else, I bet it's been a while since Oregon State, Kansas, and Cal all won conference games on the same weekend.
Big 12
In the Big 12 this week, the Horror Picture Show happened to be the Texas Chainsaw Massacre. Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor all lost (to OK State, Iowa State, Kansas, and West Virginia, respectively) with the Longhorn and Horned Frogs both getting upset. So, Texas was knocked from their short stint at the top of the standings and are now firmly back in the "not back" category. Also, in the "not back" category is Ohio State's non conference win over TCU. Woof. In addition to the Texas Massacres, Oklahoma neutered Kansas State, 51-14. As a result, my spreadsheet once again sees the Big 12 as a two-team race between West Virginia (55%) and Oklahoma (36%). Both teams would at least have a respectable shot at the playoffs if they run the table. In the standings, Texas is still right in the race, but their power ranking (38) is much lower than my two favorites (10 and 11). However, the Longhorns could flip the switch yet again if they can beat the Mountaineers in Austin next weekend.
Oh, Rocky.
He's now the toast of the town. As you might have seen live (perhaps after enjoying a Frankfurter), watched on TV, streamed on an iPad in a Japanese hotel room, or read about in newspaper, Purdue came into the game as the hottest team in the Big Ten. But, MSU turned back the Riff Raff and sent them home for failing their mission. Was Rocky perfect? Certainly not. But, he got the job done, and if nothing else his moxy injected some much needed energy into MSU's offense.While it may be a bit early to break out the confetti or party hats, There is a Light now once again at the end of the tunnel for MSU. The rest of the season holds promise once more.
With the win over Purdue, MSU now sits at 5-3 with 3 very winnable games left on the schedule, although two of those are on the road. My calculations peg MSU's expected value of wins to now be at 7.40, with about a 75% chance that MSU finished with either 7 or 8 wins (with 7 being slightly more likely). On the brighter side, I even give MSU a 9% chance to run the table and equal last year's total of 9 wins. On the not-so-bright side, I still give 6-6 an 14% chance. A Bowl Game, however, does seem almost assured, at 99.6%.
Getting excited about just making a bowl game may seem a bit hollow, but after what this offense has been through, I think that it is a tremendous success. But, I will also remind you that the race for the Big Ten East is not yet over. As some have pointed out, in a four-team tie-breaker between MSU, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan, MSU would be the team to go to Indy. I peg those odds at 0.8% right now. That may not be great odds, but they are non-zero. Great Scott!
National Overview
Here is my weekly summary of the results of Week 9. Overall, I went 27-28 (49%) ATS and 3-5 for covers (37.5%) bringing my annual totals to 52-53 (49.5%) for covers and 223-249 (47%) ATS. The FPI was 34-21 (62%) ATS for the week. As the chart shows, it was a very good week for teams like Clemson and West Virginia... and a really bad week for a lot of other teams.
When it comes to upsets, for the favored teams this week it was essentially a Horror Picture Show. I count an astounding 27 upsets, just short of 50% of all games, as tabulated below. A lot of upsets mean a lot of correct upset picks. I went 10-4 (71%) while the FPI went 6-0 (100%). I'm now 35-41 (46%) while the FPI is 26-18 (59%) year-to-date. To put this in a bit of perspective, 27 was over 3 standard deviations from the expected 16.7 upsets. Every week I perform a simple simulation which is basically a series of weighted coin flips for each game. In 2,000 simulations for the week, only 1 resulted in 27 upsets, and that was the maximum number observed. I seriously think that this is a once-in-a-century type of result. If nothing else, I bet it's been a while since Oregon State, Kansas, and Cal all won conference games on the same weekend.
Big Ten
With Michigan and Ohio State both taking the weekend off, it was all about the sub-plot in the Big Ten. In the East, both MSU and Penn State fended off foes from the West (Purdue and Iowa) to stay in the race in the East, even if I peg both team's odds to be less than 1%. As it stands, I still project Michigan to continue their drunken rampage to win the East with odds at 75%, with the Buckeyes trailing at 24%. Maryland is still technically in race after beating Illinois this week, but they would need to run the table and have Michigan lose three times, including at least one to either Rutgers or Indiana. Not likely.
With both Purdue and Iowa taking "Ls" this week, all eyes turned to the result of the Northwestern - Wisconsin game, where the Wildcats won by 14 to extend their lead in the West to a game and a half. Not bad for a team that needed back-to-back miracle comebacks against Nebraska and Rutgers. Conventional wisdom would suggest the division is now their's to lose. However, despite their loss this weekend, my spreadsheet is still carrying a torch for the Iowa Hawkeyes. It now gives them a 70% chance to win the Division, with Northwestern in 2nd at 22% and Purdue and Wisconsin at less than 5%. One way or another Iowa faces Purdue and Northwestern in the next two weeks, and that should settle this very entertaining chase.
SEC
As with the Big Ten, it was a fairly quiet week down South, especially in the West as Alabama, LSU, and Auburn all had byes. (Notice the obvious charity to Auburn by mentioning them in that sentence.) In actual West action, Mississippi State took down Texas A&M, which put a Texas-sized hole in the prayer the Aggies had to win the West. I now peg their odds at less then 0.1%. My calculations now give Bama a roughly 60-40 edge over LSU to win the West. That will all change next week when they square off. Also, Vandy beat Arkansas to hand them their 7th loss of the season, prompting the parents of Arkansas's player to starting looking at the holiday vacation packages to that European city that they've always wanted to visit instead of researching tickets to the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl.
Out East, it was all about cocktails, which ironically has nothing to do with South Carolina. Instead, it had to do with Georgia beating Florida, 36-17. In addition Kentucky eked out yet another win, this time over Missouri, which literally sets up a winner-take-all battle in Lexington next week between the Dawgs and the Cats. My spreadsheet still loves Kentucky, but it loves Uga more, and now gives Georgia a 61% chance to win that game and the Division. In addition, the Dawgs have climbed back into the #1 spot in my power rankings, which makes them a slight favorite (over Bama) to win the SEC overall at 35%.
ACC
Overall, it was a pretty wild weekend in the ACC, with 4 of the 7 games being upsets. Clemson, however, was not one of them. The Tigers breezed past the Seminoles, 59-10, and are still a virtual (99%) lock to win the Atlantic Division. The only team possibly in their way is Boston College, who did manage to upset Miami in Boston this weekend. Considering that Clemson, too, much travel to Boston... in mid November... does give me pause. However, BC would also need to win their 3 other ACC games to win the division, and I just don't see that happening.
In the Coastal Division, chaos continues to reign. As I just mentioned, Miami was upset this week. In addition to the Canes, VA Tech got stung by Georgia Tech, and Duke got scratched up by Pitt. However, Virginia managed to escape the upset bug against UNC and now find themselves with a half-game lead in the Division, ahead of VA Tech and Pitt. My math gives the Cavs a 66% chance now to win the Division, with the Hokies trailing at 24%.
Overall, Clemson is still projected to run away with the ACC. Due to a bit of a a glitch in my playoff calculations, I actually project them to have >100% chance to make the Final Four. That is, of course, false (94% is a better number), but I think barring an meteor strike or a really bad batch of clams on the wrong day at the Clemson cafeteria, I think the Tigers are a shoe-in.
In the Big 12 this week, the Horror Picture Show happened to be the Texas Chainsaw Massacre. Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor all lost (to OK State, Iowa State, Kansas, and West Virginia, respectively) with the Longhorn and Horned Frogs both getting upset. So, Texas was knocked from their short stint at the top of the standings and are now firmly back in the "not back" category. Also, in the "not back" category is Ohio State's non conference win over TCU. Woof. In addition to the Texas Massacres, Oklahoma neutered Kansas State, 51-14. As a result, my spreadsheet once again sees the Big 12 as a two-team race between West Virginia (55%) and Oklahoma (36%). Both teams would at least have a respectable shot at the playoffs if they run the table. In the standings, Texas is still right in the race, but their power ranking (38) is much lower than my two favorites (10 and 11). However, the Longhorns could flip the switch yet again if they can beat the Mountaineers in Austin next weekend.
Pac 12
If the other conferences thought that they had a crazy, upset-filled weekend by early evening, the Pac 12 simply stopped them and said, "hold my sauvignon cabernet." I count 5 upsets in 6 games out west this week including the Beavers winning at Colorado as a 24-point dog and Cal beating Washington as a 11.5-point dogs. Also, the Cougars went into Palo Alto and got the win over Stanford, which suddenly puts Washington State in the driver's seat up North. If the Huskies get tripped up by Stanford next week, the Cougars will be a virtual lock. My math already has them now with a 67% chance to win the title to Washington's 28%. Washington State is also the only Pac 12 team with fewer than 2 losses, making them the conference's only legitimate shot at a playoff bid, the odds of which by my math have grown to ~16%.
No matter who wins the North, it is looking increasingly as though their opponent in the Pac 12 Title game will be Utah. The Utes were the only Pac 12 team to avoid an upset this week, as they went into the Rose Bowl and pantsed UCLA 41-10. That win, coupled with Arizona State's upset win over USC gives the Utes a full game lead in the standings. My calculations now give Utah a 91% to win the Division, with Arizona State in second at 5.6%. Not only that, Utah has risen to #12 in my power rankings and I now project them to have a 56% chance to play in the Rose Bowl for a second time this year.
Independents / Group of Five
As expected, Notre Dame sunk Navy this weekend to remain undefeated. Their four remaining games (at Northwestern, vs. Florida State, vs. Syracuse, and at USC) all should be wins, but being honest, I could see any one of those games going south for the Irish. Perhaps my spreadsheet feels the same, as it only projects a 32% chance that Notre Dame runs the table. If the Irish drop a game and land at 11-1, I still think that the make the playoffs, but I think a lot more prayer will be required on Selection Sunday if that winds up being the case.
In AAC action this week, as expected Houston corralled the Bulls of South Florida. In addition, Cincinnati roped the SMU Mustangs. This rodeo combination of events gave the Cougars a 2-game lead in the West and dropped USF into a tie for 3rd place in the East with the Bearcats. Temple and UCF were both on a bye, but will meet next week in order to break the deadlock in the standings and in my calculations of the likely East champ.
In the Mountain West, the upset bug (code-name: Nevada) bit San Diego State, dropping the Aztecs to 6-2 and most likely out of the NY6 chase. Utah State and Fresno State both rolled, and remain on a collision course for the MWest Title.
In MACtion, Western Michigan got buzzed by the Toledo rockets, and North Illinois got a non-conference win over BYU, and as a result NIU is back on top of my projections for the MAC West at ~40%.
In CUSA, UAB and FIU both won to stay in control of their respective divisions.
And in the Funbelt, Appalachian State was upset by Georgia Southern. This put an end to App State's brief stay in the Top 25, any hopes of a NY6 bid, and possibly their run at the Sunbelt East Division. But, I will say this about Georgia Southern: they only have one loss on the season and it is to Clemson. I will continue to keep my eye on them.
And finally:
If the Season Ended Today... That Would be Weird.
Here are my current playoff projections. Based on my original set of assumption (only conference champs and teams with 1 loss or fewer would make the playoffs) I count only 11 eligible teams remaining. Furthermore, the "expected value" of playoff teams has dropped below 4 for the first time this year, implying that my spreadsheet thinks there is a possibility that there may not be enough 0- or 1-loss teams left to stock all 4 slots. (This is part of the reason Clemson's odds are over 100% in my table). The Top 3 teams are once again not surprises (Clemson, Notre Dame and Alabama). In 4th place this week in Georgia, with Michigan, LSU, and West Virginia, and Washington State rounding out the Top 8.
That's all for now. I am headed home to Michigan tomorrow and hope to hammer out my Week 10 Preview on the plane. Stay tuned, and as always, Go State, Beat the Terps!
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