2023, Week 8 Preview: Under Pressure

Happy Rivalry Week to those who celebrate! A few weeks ago Spartan fans envisioned that this week and this season was going to be a lot more fun. But Michigan State has struggled through controversy and adversity and finds themselves in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The pressure so far this year has almost burned the building down. These are the days it never rains but it pours.

Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor, the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines has laid waste to six straight opponents by an average of 33 points per game. The odds for Michigan State to have anything resembling a good weekend are small, but they are not zero. Earlier this week I laid out my case for optimism in this year's battle for Paul Bunyan. The main points are as follows.

There is a chance that Michigan State is a little better than we realize and possibly much better if they can just eliminate the turnovers and other mental mistakes. There is a chance that Michigan's soft schedule has hidden some issues that a highly motivated Spartan team might exploit. There is a chance that the night game, new uniforms, and the presence of Mark Dantonio on the sidelines might spark some magic. 

Is an upset likely? Of course not. Is it possible? Of course it is. Football is a wild game with an oblong ball played by college kids. In this rivalry anything can happen, and often has.

Ultimately, this game may come down to the emotional aspects of the game more so than the physical or strategic aspects. For the current Michigan State staff, this is likely their last dance in this rivalry. Some those people will soon be out on the street. This is a chance for the staff and players to give themselves one more chance at doing something great. The Spartans have nothing to lose.

On the other sideline, the Wolverines have everything to lose. For the first time in decades, Michigan fans might actually be correct about the ceiling and potential of their team. Furthermore, the Wolverines are motivated more than ever not just to beat the Spartans, but to humiliate them. These factors both create pressure.

Pressure is an interesting thing. If channeled in a certain direction, pressure can be a weapon. But if that pressure is uncontrolled, it can blow up in ones face. How will the untested Wolverines handle being under real pressure, assuming that the Spartans are able to generate that pressure in the first place? 

The answer to that question will determine if Michigan wins in blowout fashion, if the game it close, or if the improbable happens on Saturday night.

MSU Prediction

This week marks the 116th all-time meeting between the Spartans and the Wolverines going back to 1898. Michigan leads the all-time series with a record of 72-38-5, thanks in large part to 44 of the first 50 games in the series being played in Ann Arbor.

Since the Spartans officially joined the Big Ten in 1950, Michigan's lead in the series is a much smaller 39-32-2, and the Spartans have won 10 of the past 15 contests. Michigan State has also done well against the Wolverines against the spread in recent years. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS in the last 15 games.

Michigan State has also historically played the Wolverines close in East Lansing, even in down years. Of the eight Wolverine victories in East Lansing since 1985, only three of those wins were by double digits with the worst loss being a 17-point loss in 1991.

But this year the task of just keeping the game competitive will be difficult. The point spread for the game opened with the Wolverines favored by 24 points. That is slightly higher that the opening spread of 20 points in the ill-fated 2016 season as well as the opening spread of 22.5-points for the game in 2020 in Ann Arbor (which the Spartans' ultimately won).

By these measures, Michigan State will enter Saturday's game as the biggest underdog in series history going back at least to the 1990 game where Desmond Howard and the No. 1 Wolverines got tripped up by the Spartans in Ann Arbor.

Based on the opening spread, Michigan State has roughly a 5% chance to pull the upset this weekend. That is approximately the same odds that a typical No. 15 seed has to upset a No. 2 seed in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament. 

A path for a possible Spartan upset does exist. Michigan State must find a way to play physical, disciplined football for 60 minutes. That means no turnovers, no special teams errors, and limiting missed tackles. It probably also means that Michigan is going to need to be a bit sloppy, especially to start the game. 

Michigan State likely needs to benefit from a tipped-pass pick six, a scoop and score, or a cornerback slipping on the turf. If the Spartans can gain the early momentum, then they will have a chance. If the Wolverines start to feel the pressure and make additional errors, and if the crowd starts to get into it, things will get interesting.

But, unfortunately, I don't see that happening. The Spartans will likely be able to trade blows with Michigan for the first quarter and maybe even the first half. But, the second half will most likely get ugly. It is really just a question of how ugly. The scenario that I outlined above could happen, but it involves MSU playing a cleaner game than we have seen all year and getting a bit of luck. Until that actually happens, I file it under "I will believe it when I see it."

My computer outputs a final score of Michigan 37, Michigan State 10.  I have Michigan covering and the teams just barely squeaking under the 48 point total. That sounds about right. 

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Eight, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Eight, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

No. 33 Maryland and No. 78 Purdue have the week off. This leaves five Big Ten conference games outside of the battle for Paul Bunyan in East Lansing. 

Based on the point spreads and the circumstances, Week Eight is shaping up to be very competitive across the conference with lots of teams feeling some pressure. Four of the games have point spreads of six points or less. The other game is No. 83 Northwestern at No. 56 Nebraska (-13.5) which the computers both suggest will be closer than Vegas expects.

After beating No. 40 Wisconsin last weekend, No. 29 Iowa is suddenly in control of the West division. Both teams face stiff challenges this week as Iowa hosts No. 63 Minnesota (+6) and Wisconsin visits No. 87 Illinois (+4.5). Neither team can afford a loss and the computers like the favorites here to cover.

No. 42 Rutgers (-5) at No. 101 Indiana could be entertaining and the Scarlet Knights can lock up a bowl bid with a win.

The big game on the schedule features No. 1 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State (-5.5) in the first real pressure test of the 2023 Big Ten champaign. The Buckeyes are favored, which is in alignment with the computers' prediction, but the machines also both like the Nittany Lions to cover.

Personally, I like Penn State to pull the upset to take control of the Big Ten race. I am simply not a believer in the Buckeyes this year and I think that there is a real chance that Ohio State finishes at 9-3. 

Either way, though, Penn State is most likely going to need to beat Michigan in Happy Valley if they plan to advance to Indianapolis.

The most interesting scenario is if Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan all beat each other once and finish 8-1 in conference play. In this scenario, the tie breaker will be the conference records of each of those teams' West Division cross-over opponents. 

Penn State has already faced (and beaten Iowa) while Ohio State visits Wisconsin next week. The best team from the west on Michigan's schedule is Nebraska, which puts the Wolverines at a major disadvantage in this tiebreaker scenario. As of today, Iowa's win over Wisconsin puts Penn State into the drivers seat if there winds up being a three-way tie at the top of the standings.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week Eight.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week Eight including my algorithms' projected scores.

The race in both SEC divisions and especially the east could get more interesting this week starting with No. 21 Tennessee at No. 8 Alabama (-9.5). If Tennessee can upset the Crimson Tide, the race in the West would open up, but the impact would mostly be felt in the east. 

The Volunteers are a game back of idle No. 15 Georgia but they will have a chance to host the Bulldogs later in the year. My computer actually projects Tennessee as a slight favorite right now. The Volunteers would once against control their own destiny with a win this week.

No. 32 Missouri is also a game back of Georgia and they also still control their own destiny. The Tigers will need to avoid an upset this week versus No. 51 South Carolina (+6.5) to stay that way.

In Pac-12 action, No. 7 Washington and No. 6 Oregon are the most likely teams to advance to the Pac-12 championship game. Both teams are big favorites versus Arizona State (+27.5) and Washington State (+19.5) respectively.

No. 34 USC will also get a test from the first real conference contender this year as No. 20 Utah (+5) pays a visit to Palo Alto. My computer likes the Utes in an upset.

No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 5 Texas are back in action and similar to the situation in the Pac-12 they are not expected to face much resistance. The Sooners are 19-point favorites versus No. 49 UCF while Texas is a 22-point favorite at No. 71 Houston. 

No. 12 Kansas State has a path to the Big 12 Championship game with Texas on schedule later in the year. The Wildcats will first need to get past No. 25 TCU (+7.5). Farther down the standings. No. 35 West Virginia hosts No. 55 Oklahoma State (+3) in a virtual elimination game in the conference race.

Three teams are currently undefeated in ACC conference play and two of them square off this week as No. 9 Duke visits No. 11 Florida State (-14.5). I would not be at all surprised to see Duke pull off the upset win on the road. Either way the winner will likely join No. 18 North Carolina at the top of the standings as the Tar Hells are 23-point favorites versus No. 89 Virginia.

In other ACC news No. 39 Clemson (-2) visits No. 19 Miami in a battle of teams that everything thought were supposed to be good (but aren't).

Table 3 below summarizes the notable remaining Group of Five action in Week Eight.

Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week Eight including my algorithms' projected scores.

No. 30 Air Force is at the top of my current Group of Five leaderboard as the team with the best odds (34%) to earn a stop in a New Year's Six Bowl. The Falcons (-10) travel to Navy this week for a potentially tricky non-conference rivalry game. I also am now keeping an eye on 5-1 No. 77 UNLV as a potential Mountain West spoilers. The Rebels (-6.5) host No. 99 Colorado State.

The biggest competition for Air Force is No. 48 Liberty. The Flames played on Tuesday night and already have moved to 7-0 with a win over seven-point win against Middle Tennessee State.

In the American Athletic Conference, No. 36 Tulane and No. 38 SMU are both also candidates if they can continue to win. They face No. 104 North Texas (+20.5) and No. 127 Temple (+18), respectively.

In the Sun Belt, No. 68 Georgia State is the only eligible team remaining with fewer than two losses. The Panthers are 2.5-point underdogs at home against No. 102 Louisiana this week, but my computer likes Georgia State in the upset.

The most fun game on the Group of Five schedule is No. 69 Toledo at No. 52 Miami of Ohio (-1). The winner will become the immediate MAC favorite and last remaining hope for New Year's Six glory.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Eight.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Eight.

Figures 1 and 2 together provide a total of eight upset picks for the week which are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week Eight.

This time of year the Sun Belt and especially Conference USA are scheduling games on Tuesday and Wednesday night. As a result, Jacksonville State has already upset Western Kentucky (which was the biggest pick on the board) and UTEP failed to upset New Mexico State.

The notable Power Five upset picks for Week Eight are my computer's picks of Utah over USC and Miami over Clemson. 

A simulation of the full week using the opening Vegas lines suggest that 15.2 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets are more likely this week, which surpasses last week's number as the highest value of the year so far. Several favorites may be under significant pressure.

Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week Eight. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My computer has six recommendations this week and my analysis of the FPI data gives four additional picks many of which are in Power Five match-ups. My computer likes Oregon, Washington, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Duke, and Miami. I will also note that South Alabama did successfully cover against Southern Miss on Tuesday evening.

Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.

Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Eight. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My analysis yields a total of 12 point total picks this week, eight of which are considered locks. Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State obliged by keeping the score under 61 points on Tuesday night. After a strong start to the season, my computer is under pressure to turn things around with the over/under picks.

That is all the advice that I have to give this week other than this: Chins up, Spartan fans. It's going to be OK. You could turn away from it all like a blind man. You could sit on a fence, but that won't work. I understand that your love for the Spartans is slashed and torn. But this is big boy football. This is ourselves under pressure. Pressure is a privilege.

Mmm num ba de. Dum bum ba be. Doo buh dum ba beh beh.

Check back early next week to see how my computer performed.