Hello, is this 911? I need to report a robbery.
A few months ago, I had hope the Michigan State might be a program that was retooling after a tougher than expected 2022 season. Despite having the most difficult schedule in the country in 2023, I believed that the Spartans were building towards being competitive in the Big Ten again. I was hoping that we would see some positive progress this year.
This hope has been stolen for me and from the Spartan family. The suspect is a well-known head football coach in the state of Michigan... No, not that guy, the other guy. He is 51-years old, bald, and has a bad tendency of engaging in completely inappropriate Zoom meetings. He's goes by Mel... That's right... I also heard he tried to steal a bunch of money from a school, but that's another story.
Without proper leadership for Michigan State football, the team has seemed flat, listless, and rudderless over the past few weeks. They have been robbed of the chance to improve and to compete at the level that they are capable of competing. Fans have been robbed by this Mel character of the chance to see good football being played.
To make matter's worse, this past weekend one of my neighbors broke in and completely ransacked the place. Among other things, he took my favorite lumberjack trophy... What? Yes, I like to collect trophies. Stay with me. Based on the current state of the football program, it was like we turned off the security system and left the doors unlocked...
How do I know that it was my neighbor? He has literally been gloating about it all around town ever since. Also, he left some bits of ugly yellow and blue fabric and the stench of weasel in the place. It will likely take a week or two just to get the smell out.
Are you saying that it sounds like I wasn't prepared at all? Well, I suppose that if you put it like that, no I guess I wasn't prepared. Yeah, OK. That's on me.... What's that? Has my neighbor even began accused of cheating or stealing anything else? Well... that's a long story, too. How much time do you have?
Week Eight Betting Results
Where were we? Ah yes, let's now steal a glance at the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
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| Figure 1: Results of Week Eight showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
Based on Figure 1, a total of 13 teams overachieved by beating their opponents by more than 14 points. This group of fortunate schools include LSU (not shown), Michigan, UCLA, Kansas State, and Missouri.
In contrast there were three teams who barely escaped the week with a victory and failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points: Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington.
An additional 18 teams were less fortunate, as their opponents stole an upset victory. This total number is slightly higher than predicted (15.2) but the total number of upsets on the year so far (100 exactly) perfectly matches the year-to-date expectation (99.7).
Table 1 below summarizes these 18 games in comparison to last week's upset predictions.
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| Table 1: Upsets in Week Eight based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week. |
At the top of the board is Virginia's upset of North Carolina (-23) which is the second biggest upset of the year and only the third where the spread was greater than 20 points. Other notable upsets include Mississippi State over Arkansas (-7), Minnesota over Iowa (-6), Utah over USC (-5), Boston College over Georgia Tech (-5), BYU over Texas Tech (-4), Oklahoma State over West Virginia (-3), Miami over Clemson (-2), Baylor over Cincinnati (-1.5), and Toledo over Miami of Ohio (-1).
My computer had a strong week on the upset front, going 4-3 (57%) to move the year-to-date record to a solid 17-23 (43%). ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) was not so fortunate. It went 0-3 to drop the year-to-date record to 10-21 (32%).
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.
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The news was not as good on this front in Week Eight. My computer went just 2-4 (33%) which drops the year-to-date record below .500 at 15-17 (47%). The FPI did slightly better for the week (2-3 or 40%) but overall trails my machine with a record of just 23-37 (38%).
When the results of all 54 games are taking in consideration, both machines had a miserable week of this front as well. My computer went 23-31 (43%) to drop the year-to-date record to 208-222 (48.4%). The FPI is doing slightly worse. It went 22-32 (41%) this week and for the year is just 207-233 (48.1%).
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Eight.
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| Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Eight. |
After stealing my heart for almost a year, my method of making point total picks now has me feeling empty. Overall these picks went just 4-8 (33%) in Week Eight with the "locks" going just 3-5 (38%). For the year the point total bets have a record of 71-77 (48%) while the locks have dropped to 17-20 (46%).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Eight, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls and the values listed in parathesis are the odds for each team to win their division.
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| Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Eight. |
Ohio State's win over Penn State and Michigan's win over the Spartans have resulted in the Buckeye (45%) and the Wolverines (42%) pulling ahead of Penn State (13%) for the best odds to represent the Big Ten East in the Big Ten Championship Game.
No. 1 Michigan has reclaimed the top spot in my power rankings this week, but No. 2 Ohio State has slightly better odds to win the East because with a win over Penn State already on the ledger. The Buckeyes, therefore, have an easier remaining schedule.
In other Big Ten East news, No. 49 Rutgers became bowl eligible thanks to a win over No. 104 Indiana.
In Big Ten West action, No. 39 Iowa lost to rival No. 58 Minnesota based on a late play that the Hawkeyes claim was not (a) fair (catch). Iowa fans feel that they got robbed. Meanwhile No. 45 Wisconsin used a strong fourth quarter to steal win in Champaign over No. 81 Illinois.
No. 54 Nebraska was able to evade an upset to No. 88 Northwestern.
When the dust settled, Iowa (35%) holds a slight lead in my odds table over Wisconsin (34%), despite the Badger's one game lead in the Big Ten standings. Wisconsin hosts Ohio State next week and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Hawkeyes.
After the top two, Nebraska (14.7%) and Minnesota (14.6%) are the only other two teams with reasonable odds to sneak into the top spot. Both teams have just two conference losses.
Remaining Schedule for Michigan State
It should come as no surprise that the Spartans' prospect took a sharp downward turn following the almost criminally poor performance against Michigan. Michigan State has dropped to No. 89 in my power rankings and the season expected win total has dropped to just 3.24 wins. As Table 5 shows, the odds of getting to six wins are now at just 0.8%.
With this knowledge in hand, it is time for the hard conversation about the possibility to make a bowl with a 5-7 record. Some may scoff at the idea of backing into the lowest tier of bowls, but the additional practices, likely under the gaze of the next head coach, would be extremely valuable in the rebuild of the program.
The data in Table 5 also reveal that the odds of getting to 5-7 are just 10%. If the Spartans were to achieve that record, there are two criteria that would need to be met to earn a bowl invitation.
First, there would need to be fewer than 82 FBS teams with six wins or more. As of today, my calculations suggest that only 77.75 teams are expected to reach that win total. The math is projecting that four or five slots could be available for teams with a 5-7 record. My calculations suggest that between 16 and 17 teams will comprise this pool of candidates.
The tie-breaker to determine which schools will get bowl invitations from this group is the most recent academic progress rate (APR). Michigan State is currently ranked No. 28 in APR. Based on the expected win totals of the team ahead of the Spartans as they stand now, it is more likely than not that Michigan State would quality for a bowl with a 5-7 record this year.
We will dig into those number more as the season continues, if needed.
Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for all five of Michigan State's remaining games.
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| Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Eight and based on a 70,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference. |
As expected, the prospects for the remaining games are moving in the wrong direction. The opening spread for next weekend's game at Minnesota opened with the Golden Gophers as seven-point favorites, just a point off from my computer's projection of +8.
My computer now projects Michigan State to be a 4.5-point underdog at home against Nebraska on November 11. The road game at Indiana now looks like a toss-up.
The Ohio State and Penn State games project to be a virtual repeat of what we witnessed against the Wolverines.
National Overview
Let now review the action from Week Eight including my updated College Football Playoff Leaderboard as shown in Table 6.
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| Table 6: College Football Playoffs leaderboard following the results of Week Eight. The table includes each contender's odds to win their conference, make the playoffs, and win the national title. The table also gives each team's current power ranking, strength of record (SOR), and strength of schedule (SoS). |
No. 2 Ohio State (59% chance to make the playoffs) and No. 3 Michigan (55%) both have odds of making the playoffs that are in the top four nationally. No. 3 Penn State (25%) is also still in the running from the Big Ten. My simulation suggests that there is close to a 40% chance that at least two Big Ten teams qualify for this year's four-team playoff.
The team with the second best odds to make the playoff is No. 9 Florida State (56%). The Seminoles have the second best strength of record to date, behind only Ohio State. This is due, in part, to Florida State's win over No. 11 Duke this weekend and the Seminoles relatively easy remaining schedule. Florida State projects to be favored by double-digits for the rest of the regular season.
As a result, my computer give Florida State a 98% chance to reach the ACC Championship game. The most likely opponent is Duke (46%), thanks in large part to No. 66 Virginia upsetting No. 26 North Carolina (27%). Idle Louisville (19%) is also still in the running.
The fourth most likely team to make the playoffs, according to my computer, is No. 6 Oklahoma (45%). The Sooners failed to cover badly against No. 35 UCF, but they still project to have a 89% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.
No. 5 Texas (48%) is the most likely other participant but the Longhorns also struggled to beat No. 59 Houston this weekend. By contrast, No. 4 Kansas State (42%) pummeled No. 33 TCU. The Wildcats shot up my power rankings and are just behind Texas in my odds table with a game in Austin still on the schedule. No. 42 Oklahoma State (11%) is also still in the race after beating No. 43 West Virginia.
No. 7 Alabama (32%) owns the fifth best odds to make the playoff after handling No. 18 Tennessee this weekend. The Crimson Tide have a 75% chance to win the SEC West with No. 12 LSU (19%) as the only plausible threat.
Tennessee's loss dropped the Volunteers two games behind idle No. 15 Georgia. Tennessee now has just a 13% chance to win the SEC East. Georgia (59%) still has a sizable lead in the division race even though my computer gives the Bulldogs only the tenth best odds to make the playoffs (18%).
No. 22 Missouri (21%) defeated No. 57 South Carolina to emerge as the current biggest threat in the SEC East. The Tigers and idle No. 48 Florida (7%) both still control their own destiny.
No. 13 Washington has the sixth best playoff odds (29%) following a head-scratcher of a poor performance at head against No. 111 Arizona State. The Huskies won, but one of the top offenses in the nation failed to score an offensive touchdowns against one of the weakest teams in the FBS.
Washington retains the best odds to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game (72%), ahead of No. 8 Oregon (49%) who won but failed to cover versus No. 55 Washington State. Idle No. 14 Oregon State (36%) remains in the hunt along with No. 21 Utah (24%) which upset No. 28 USC (11%) in the Coliseum, as my computer predicted.
The updated Group of Five leaderboard is shown below in Table 7.
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No. 27 Air Force got the win at No. 84 Navy to stay undefeated and to maintain pole position in the race for a New Year's Six Bowl with odds of 43%. No. 52 Liberty also stayed undefeated with a win over No. 101 Middle Tennessee State and remains in second place with a 26% chance to reach a New Year's Six Bowl.
After the top two, No. 37 Tulane (7.5%) and No. 29 SMU (2%) are both still in play from the American Athletic Conference after wins over No. 99 North Texas and No. 131 Temple this weekend. Idle No. 46 Fresno State (7.5%) is also still alive if the Bulldogs can run the table and win the Mountain West Championship Game. However, they will need someone to beat No. 61 Wyoming to regain control of their own destiny.
Farther down the list, No. 62 Toledo (7%) is likely the last hope for the MAC after stealing a mild upset win at No. 65 Miami of Ohio (0.7%). In the Sun Belt, my computer projects that idle No. 19 Troy (3.8%) would beat any other Group of Five team on a neutral field, but with two loses already, it will be an uphill climb.
Against all odds, I have reached the end for today. Thank you for allowing me to steal a bit of your time today. Stay tuned for a fresh batch of Bad Betting Advice later this week.
Other Tables and Figures
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