2023 Week 9 Preview: Go For Broke

In some college football seasons, there comes a time when it feels like giving up might be the correct answer. This is certainly an emotion felt by fans and I would guess that some players might be feeling that way as well. The Michigan State football team is suffering through a five-game losing streak. They just suffered the worst home loss in the history of their most bitter rivalry and the worst loss in the series overall since 1947. 

But with five games left on the schedule, the show must go on. The list of "things left to play for," is starting to dwindle, but it is not yet empty. There is a good chance that Michigan State will suffer two more big loses to Ohio State and Penn State before the season is complete. However, there are also three very winnable games left on the schedule. One of those games is this Saturday afternoon.

The odds that Michigan State wins the six games needed to automatically qualify for a bowl game are vanishingly small (less than 1%). However, my most recent analysis suggests that the Spartans would have a strong chance (over 50%) to make a Bowl Game with a final record of 5-7.

However, all of that analysis goes out window with a loss this weekend. If the Spartans are to have any chance to earn a bowl bid and those valuable extra practices, it is time to go for broke this weekend against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Getting off the mat is going to be difficult. But if the Spartans can muster the same effort that they showed against Iowa and Rutgers, but with fewer mistakes, a win is more than possible. 

A win on the road against a solid Big Ten West team would be the first signs of positive momentum in over seven weeks. That positive momentum could easily carry over into the Spartans' final true home game of the year next weekend versus Nebraska. That game would suddenly also become much more winnable.

Michigan State's players and fans desperately need a feel-good win. The opportunity will be there this weekend in Minneapolis. It's now or never for the 2023 season. It is time to go all-in It is time to go for broke.

MSU Prediction

Michigan State currently holds a 30-18 overall lead in the series with the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but the series has been one of streaks. Minnesota dominated the series over the first few decades of Big Ten play, winning 11 of the first 17 contests from 1950 to 1976.

The Spartans would respond by reeling off 17 straight wins over the next 20 years. Starting in 1998, the Gophers won six of the next eight games before the Spartans turned the tables in 2010 and won the next five games in a row. That streak was broken last year with Minnesota's 34-7 shellacking of the Spartans in East Lansing.

Interestingly, the Spartans have struggled with the Gophers relative to the Vegas lines. Michigan State is just 3-12 against the spread versus Minnesota since 1997. This is concerning this weekend, as Michigan State opened as a seven-point underdog. Historically this gives the Spartans a 31% chance to get the upset win on the road.

As stated above, this is a win that Michigan State absolutely needs and absolutely can get. I would love to say that I am confident that the Spartans can get the job down. But I am not, and neither is my computer.

My computer expects that both the Minnesota winning streak and the streak of the Spartans not coving will continue. I am projecting a final score of Minnesota 27, Michigan State 18. Unfortunately, this seems like a plausible outcome.

This game will once again likely come back to the amount of emotional energy that the Spartans have in the tank. Unfortunately, I suspect the tank is close to empty. I fear that the collective will may be broken. If they can draw from some reserve of energy, passion, and resolve, then I think that they will have a chance. But I will need to see that to believe it.

Big Ten Overview

Now it is time to go to a summary of the upcoming action in the Big Ten in Week Nine, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. See Table 1 below. Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Nine, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI

No. 39 Iowa, No. 81 Illinois, No. 1 Michigan, and No. 49 Rutgers all have the week off, which leaves just four conference games outside of the contest in Minneapolis. For those teams with extra time this weekend, it might be a good chance to do some electronic fall clean-up, including deleting some of those old files that are taking up space or even recycling some outdated or broken hardware. Give it some thought.

As for the other teams, No. 3 Penn State (-31.5) looks to bounce back this week against No. 104 Indiana, and No. 30 Maryland (-13.5) looks to become bowl eligible at No. 88 Northwestern. No. 54 Nebraska (-3) host No. 79 Purdue with a chance to get closer to bowl eligibility.

In the grand scheme of things, those second two games are likely to have little impact on the Big Ten race or overall college football landscape. But, there are a few subplots worth watching. 

From the Michigan State point of view, Nebraska is on the short list of Big Ten teams in potential competition with the Spartans for a bowl bid, if Michigan State can get to five wins. In that scenario, it would benefit Michigan State fans to root against Nebraska getting to six wins. The Spartans would earn a bowl spot over the Corn Huskers if both team were to finish at 5-7.

From the Big Ten East race point of view, there is still a plausible scenario where Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan finish in the three-way tie with one loss apiece. In this case, the tie-breaker is the combined conference record of each team's west division cross-over opponents. 

As of today, Ohio State is projected to win this tie-breaker, but an upset here or there could easily change the outcome. Michigan needs Nebraska to finish ahead of Wisconsin to beat out Ohio State. Meanwhile, Penn State is rooting for Northwestern to finish strong.

Speaking of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 45 Wisconsin, those two teams meet in Madison in what is no doubt the Big Ten game of the week. The Buckeyes are favored by 14-points and the computers both like Ohio State to cover. 

At the beginning of the season and as recently as last week, I was picking this game to break Wisconsin's way. After the last few weeks, I am not so sure. Either way, the outcome will have a big impact on the race in both the east and west divisions of the Big Ten.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week Eight.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week Eight including my algorithms' projected scores.

In Pac-12 action this week, No. 13 Washington (-26.5) should be able to maintain the lead in the standings with a road trip to Palo Alto to face No. 103 Stanford. But the other pacific northwest schools in the race for second place face challenging road games.

No. 14 Oregon State (-4.5) has a tricky road game at No. 25 Arizona and No. 8 Oregon (-4.5) has an even trickier road game at No. 21 Utah. The results of those two games will bring more clarity to the biggest challenger to Washington for the Pac-12 crown.

The Big 12 looks like a three-team race between No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 5 Texas, and No. 4 Kansas State. All three of those teams are double digit favorites. Texas (-19.5) and Kansas State (-16.5) are likely to be safe at home against No. 38 Brigham Young and No. 59 Houston, respectively. However, Oklahoma (-10) has a tougher test at No. 34 Kansas. 

The computers like all three favored Big 12 teams to cover, but I wonder if at least one of those games might break differently.

The schedule is light this week in the SEC with both No. 7 Alabama, No. 12 LSU, and No. 22 Missouri on a bye week. The only game of significant consequence is No. 15 Georgia (-14.5) versus No. 48 Florida. The Gators still control their own destiny in the east division and an upset win have a huge impact nationally.

In ACC action, No. 9 Florida State has just a few small speed bumps in their way before they get to the ACC Championship game. This week's bump is at No. 95 Wake Forest (+20). Three other teams are vying to the other spot in the title game. 

No. 26 North Carolina (-11.5) could get a test from No. 71 Georgia Tech, but the biggest ACC game this week features No. 11 Duke at No. 32 Louisville (-4). The loser of this game might be out of conference race. While Vegas and the FPI are going with the Cardinals, my computer likes the Blue Devils in an upset.

Table 3 below summarizes the notable remaining Group of Five action in Week Nine.

Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week Nine including my algorithms' projected scores.

The biggest game on this list is No. 52 Liberty at No. 67 Western Kentucky, which took place on Tuesday night. Despite my computer's upset prediction, the Flames won 42-29 to stay undefeated. The Hilltoppers were the most difficult team on the schedule. With the win on Tuesday, Liberty has a very realistic chance to run the table and make the New Year's Six.

The eventual winner of the Mountain West may have something to say about that. No. 27 Air Force (-11.5) is also undefeated and looks to stay that way this week at No. 94 Colorado State. The battle for the second spot in the Mountain West Championship game heats up this week as well. No. 76 UNLV visits No. 46 Fresno State (-8.5) and No. 61 Wyoming visits No. 63 Boise State (-5.5). Those four teams all have no more than one conference loss.

No. 37 Tulane and No. 19 Troy are longer shots to make the New Year's Six, but that still have a chance if they can keep winning. Tulane visits No. 80 Rice (+11.5) this week while Troy visits No. 91 Texas State (+4.5).

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Nine.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Nine.

Figures 1 and 2 together provide a total of nine upset picks for the week which are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week Nine

Many of these picks are in Group of Five game or Power Five game with limited impact on division or conference races. The exception is my computer's pick of Duke (+4) to beat Louisville and to some extent, Iowa State (+1.5) to beat Baylor.

My weekly simulation of the action projects that 13.1 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets are most likely this weekend. That total is down compared to the previous two weeks and is the lowest total since Week Three.

Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week Nine. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

Combined the computers posit 11 total recommended bets including wagers on Iowa State, UCLA, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Texas, and Duke all to cover.

Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.

Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Nine. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My analysis yields a total of 12 point-total recommendations this week, including seven of which meet the criteria of "locks."  Interestingly, 10 of the 12 picks are for the over this week. Hopefully my machine can get out of the poor house this week with a stronger performance.

That's all the advice that I have to give this week. If any of these picks pique your interest, I encourage you to go for it. Check back next week to see how the computers fared.