Against All Odds, 2025 Week One: Fine Wine

The beginning of a new college football season is like opening an unfamiliar bottle of fine wine. One is never quite sure what to expect.

Sure, you can take a pretty good guess as to what it might taste like. The brand, the age, the style, and the writing on the bottle gives an indication of what to expect. One might even be able to find some online reviews to give a sense if how good the particular bottle might be.

Week One provided the first sip of the 2025 college football season. It is a time to get an initial impression of what is to come from the full bottle.

For the Michigan State Spartans the initial taste was a pleasant one. The first half was a bit sweet as the Green and White found the endzone three times in the first four drive. The offense was not as spicy as expected and there was definitely an earthy character as the Spartans put up 130 yards rushing in the first 30 minutes. The defense was bold, giving up just 89 yards and three first downs.

But the finish on Friday night left a bit to be desired. It left Spartan fans with a slightly bitter and acidic aftertaste as the offense failed to score any points at all in the second half. Furthermore, the Spartans gave up a pick-six interception and failed to recover an on-side kick in the final three minutes of the game. But we also have to admit that the finish had more than just a few notes of vanilla.

At the end of the day, Michigan State got the job done in Game One. The offence moved the ball well, and they did not need to rely exclusively on quarterback Aidan Chiles and wide receiver Nick Marsh to do it. A few bright notes appeared on the offense, specifically sophomore running back Makhi Frazier (103 yards on 14 carries) and senior transfer wide receiver Omari Kelly (75 yards on five catches). 

The Spartan defense was bold all night. The Western Michigan offense did not score a point and the Broncos never even crossed the Michigan State 20-yard line. The defense registered four sacks, eight quarterback hurries, and 11 tackles for loss.

On balance, the first sip of the 2025 Michigan State season left a positive impression. Time will tell what will happen as the bottle opens up and is allowed to breathe. Other, more pleasant notes may emerge. The Spartans will be just fine.

As for some of the improvements to Spartan Stadium, I cannot say if the concessions now sells wine or not. I never made it to the front of the line. But that is a topic to whine about another time.

Week One Betting Results

For those who are unfamiliar with the way I structure this series, here is a quick primer. Every week during the college football season I will present my computer's recommended wagers in my Bad Betting Advice column. Following the week's action, I will provide an update on the weekend's result along with some comments on the action across the country.

One figure that I prepare is a comparison of the outcome of each game relative to the opening point spread. That result for Week One of 2025 is shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Results of 2025 Week One showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Each data point represents one game. The position of the data point either above or below the solid diagonal line reveals whether the favored team beat the opening spread or not. The farther a data point is from the center diagonal, the bigger the deviation from the spread. 

The two dotted, diagonal lines represent one standard deviation from the mean (the opening spread) which is equal to just over 14 points. In other words, in roughly one-third of all college football games, the final point differential is two touchdowns away from the opening spread. Favored teams whose data points falls outside of the dotted line either overachieved or underachieved by a significant margin (over one standard deviation).

A total of nine teams enjoyed the sweet aroma by ending up in the overachiever category in Week One due to beating the spread by more than 14 points: USC, Ole Miss, Virginia, Utah, Arizona, Fresno State, Maryland, Purdue, and Appalachian State.

There are two favored teams that endured that skunky feeling by failing to beat the spread by at least 14 points, yet still won: Michigan and Wake Forest. 

I should also mention that in both the over and underachieving category, the underdog may just be a lot worse or a lot better than expected. Over the course of the season it will become clear if this sentiment is real or simply sour grapes.

The data points that appear below the solid red line in Figure 1 represent favored teams which lost in upset fashion. Table 1 below summarizes those eight games and compares these results to the upset picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in 2025 Week One based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Week One saw four upsets where the opening line was at least 9.5 points. The most notable of these upsets are Florida State's upset of Alabama, and South Florida's take down of Boise State.

My algorithm went a solid 3-2 (60%) for upset picks while the FPI experienced more bitter tannins in route to a 2-5 (29%) record.

There were a total of nine upsets in the games involving two FBS teams, which is consistent with my weekly simulation's prediction of 9.6 upsets. In addition, Army and Middle Tennessee State both took upset loses to FCS opponents.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for 2025, Week One.

My computer decided not to sample any bets against the spread in Week One, but my analysis of the FPI data resulted in a heavy pour of 10 upset picks. ESPN's metric went 5-5 (50%) on these picks. The FPI was 0-1 in Week Zero, bringing the year-to-date total to 5-6 (45.5%).

Overall, my picks went just 15-29 (34%) against the spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 17-31 (35%). The FPI has a much stronger week, going 23-21 (52.3%) which brings the year-to-date total to 25-23 (51.2%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week One.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for 2025, Week One.

My computer's "lock" picks got off to a great start with a record of 4-1 (80%) in Week One. However, the locks were 0-2 in Week Zero which drops to year-to-date tally to 4-3 (57%). 

The larger set of recommended point total bets did not fare as well. Those picks went just 10-14 (42%) bringing the year-to-year record to 10-18 (36%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week One, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following 2025, Week One.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after 2025, Week One.

From one point of view, the Big Ten had a solid Week One. The conference went 16-2 overall and both losses (Northwestern at Tulane and UCLA to Utah) were in games where the Big Ten team was the underdog. Based on the opening spreads, my calculations suggested that 15 wins total was most likely.

Also, Ohio State got perhaps the biggest win of the weekend by beating No. 1 Texas in Columbus. But if we continue to swirl and sip this first glass of Big Ten performance, more flaws start to emerge.

Relative to the spread, only four of the 15 Big Ten teams that faces FBS-level opponents covered: Ohio State, Maryland, Purdue, and USC. Northwestern and UCLA didn't just lose, both teams were blown out. Even Iowa's win over FCS opponent Albany was a bit underwhelming.

The movement in the odds from the updated simulation correlate to the relative performances of the Big Ten teams. Ohio State (42%) and Oregon (41%) now have improved odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game. In contrast the odds for Penn State (31%) and especially Michigan (8%) sagged.

Wisconsin (17%) saw the biggest move in the odds table, thanks to a shutout win over Miami of Ohio. Maryland (5%) and Purdue (2%) took big jumps in my power rankings of over 30 slots. But those two teams still have a lot of work to do to be considered real contenders. 

It is too early to draw any real conclusions from these data, but performance in Week One is often a harbinger of surprising things to come.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

The Spartans failed to cover the 17-point opening spread due to the late pick-six by back up quarterback Alessio Milivojevic. However, based on the total number of point scored, my algorithm graded the Spartans' performance as a net positive. Michigan State rose nine spots in my power ranking to No. 49.

In addition, almost all of the Spartans' future opponents were down graded my power ranking following Week One. As a result, all of the predictive metrics for Michigan State moved in a positive direction.

The Spartans have an improved chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game (3.1%) and an improved number of expected wins (6.65.) My simulation now give the Green and White a 71% chance to win at least six games and to qualify for a bowl game.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining 11 games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are shown in Figure 2 as a reference.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following 2025, Week One and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

The projected point spreads have improved in every future game with the exception of the Ford Field finale with Maryland (+0.5). The Spartans now project to be a much larger favorite at home versus Boston College (+6.5) and UCLA (+10). For the remaining games on the schedule, Michigan State  projects to be between a one-point and eight-point underdog in each contest instead as a double-digit underdog.

However, my analysis still projects that the Spartans will only be favored in four more games this season. Therefore, the most likely scenario remains a final record of 5-7. The data is moving in a positive direction for Michigan State fans, but there is still some work to be done.

National Overview

In the final section for today, I offer up a sampler of the finest vintages of action from around the country in Week One.

The results in the SEC were a mixed bag, as the conference members went 5-5 against the spread in games against FBS opponents. On the bright side, LSU got a big upset win at Clemson. Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee all avoided upsets against Power Four and solid Group of Five competition. Kentucky was the only team in the that group that failed to cover.

On a more sour note, Texas could not get the win at Ohio State and Alabama was blown out at Florida State. When the dust settled, my simulation now gives Georgia (30%) and LSU (29%) the best odds to make the SEC Championship Game.

Big 12 members went 4-3 against the spread versus FBS opponents, including TCU's upset win at North Carolina on Monday night and Utah's dismantling of UCLA in Pasadena. On the flip side, Baylor, Cincinnati, and Colorado all lost as home underdogs to Auburn, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech, respectively. 

On the merits of a strong Week One performance, my simulation now favors Utah (46%) and TCU (38%) as the two favorites to make the Big 12 Championship Game.

ACC teams went 5-6 against other FBS opponents in Week One and five of those games ended in an upset. As mentioned above, North Carolina and Clemson were bitten by the upset bug. Conversely, Florida State, Cal, and Miami all scored upset wins over Alabama, Oregon State, and Notre Dame, respectively.

As a result, my computer now gives Miami (45%) and Florida State (29%) the best odds to qualify for the ACC Championship game.

Finally, in Group of Five action, the American Athletic Conference had a strong week. Its members went 7-2 against the spread versus FBS opponents. The action was highlighted by South Florida's upset win over Boise State and Tulane's beat down of Northwestern. 

Farther down the projected standings, Rice and Temple earned upset wins as well. The only blemish on the record was Army's overtime loss to FCS opponent Tarleton State. 

As a result of this strong start, AAC teams current hold the top four spots in my Group of Five playoff leaderboard. Tulane (23%) currently has the best playoff odds, followed by South Florida (22%), North Texas (11%), and Memphis (8%).

Against all odds we've made it to the end for today. Now that we have uncorked the bottle of college football vintage 2025 and taken the first few sips, I am confident that this bottle will be full of complexity and surprise. Stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis and a fresh batch of Bad Betting Advice right around the corner.