Against All Odds, 2025 Week Four: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Early Sunday morning and 2,200 miles from home, the Michigan State Spartans suffered the first loss of the 2025 season. The Spartans were defeated by the USC Trojans, 45-31. I find that beyond the simple feeling of sleep deprivation, my thoughts on the game are mixed.

Several aspects of this weekend's game fall squarely into the "bad" category. We knew that USC has an explosive offense, but the Spartans pride themselves on stopping the run. On Saturday night the Trojans racked up 289 yards on the ground (7.2 yards per attempt) compared to just 112 yards for Michigan State (3.5 yards per attempt). That's not good.

USC only punted once in the game and that was with just 22 seconds remaining. The Trojans converted 75% of their third downs and half of their fourth downs. That's dreadful.

We knew that USC had a strong pass rush, but Spartan quarterback Aidan Chiles was pressured on almost half of his drop back attempts (13 of 27). When pressured, he was sacked twice and only completed three passes. That's borderline ugly.

But the word "ugly" in this game has to reserved for some of the other unfortunate incidents that occurred that evening. The Spartans' defensive leader, linebacker Jordan Hall, was ejected due to a targeting penalty, and multiple players suffered injuries and did not return to action. 

The ugliest and scariest point of the game was just before half time when senior linebacker Wayne Matthews suffered a possible neck injury. He was immediately stabilized, immobilized and taken to a local hospital.

The team issued an update on Sunday morning that Matthews returned home with the team with "his motor skills are intact." Matthews even tweeted that he will "be back in no time." That is, without question, the greatest news of the weekend. But beyond Matthews the Spartans returned to East Lansing even more battered and bruised than ever.

Despite these obvious shortcomings, it wasn't all bad. There were several areas of the game that leave me feeling strangely good. First, Aidan Chiles is continuing to mature before our eyes. While not perfect on Saturday, he continues to make plays with his arm and his feet and he is limiting mistakes. Chiles has thrown 81 passes this year with only one interception and that ball was deflected at the line of scrimmage.

Chiles is surrounded be an arsenal of weapons at the wide receiver and tight end positions. When fully healthy, running back Makhi Frazier is a potential difference maker. This is an offense that can engage in and potential win in a wild-west style shootout.

The biggest positive Saturday's contest was the fight that the Spartans showed in the second half. Despite everything that went wrong in the first half, despite having to roll with multiple second-stringers on defense, despite a 21-point deficit early in the second half, and despite their body clocks saying that it was well after midnight, the Spartans never quit.

Chiles drove the team for a touchdown to cut the deficit to 14 points. After the defense forced a fumble, he once again found the endzone to make it a game with a quarter left to play. The Spartans were then a fingernail away from sacking USC quarterback Jayden Maiava on a key third down.

But Maiava got away from the Spartan defenders. Soon, the rest of the game got away as well. But the Spartans kept the deficit to just 14 points which meant that they coverage the spread for the first time all year. That's doesn't mean much, but it is certain more good than bad.

Now the Spartans return home with an extra week to rest, recover, heal, and evaluate the good, the bad, and the ugly of the first third of the season. Michigan State has been tested. In some areas they have passed and in others they have failed. Only the most optimistic fan expected the Spartans to be 4-0 at this point in the season. A 3-1 start is not bad.

Week Four Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Four showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of seven teams overachieved by beating the opening spread by more than 14 points: Indiana, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Kansas, Central Florida, Washington, and Texas. That's what I call "good." Only one team failed to cover by more than 14 points, yet still won: UConn. That's pretty bad.

A total of 14 teams took ugly upset losses in Week Four. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Four based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Five teams won as double-digit underdogs: Syracuse (+20), Tulsa (+14), Coastal Carolina (+14), San Diego State (+13), and Western Michigan (+12). Other notable upsets include Maryland over Wisconsin (-7), Memphis over Arkansas (-6), and Texas Tech over Utah (-4.5).

My algorithm went 3-2 (60%) on upset picks which brings the year to-date-performance to 15-10 (60%). Historically, that is very good. ESPN's FPI was 2-2 (50%) for the week, bringing its year-to-date tally to 10-13 (44%). That's not bad.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Four.

My algorithm had another strong week, going 3-2 (60%) which brings the year-to-date performance to a very good 11-8 (58%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted in a 2-1 record for the week (67%) which brings the year-to-date results to an also very good 19-12 (61%).

Overall for the week my computer went 23-27 (46%) against the spread (ATS), bringing the year-to-date total to 91-104 (46.7%). That is honestly kind of bad, but not to the level of ugly. The FPI was very good in this category at 28-22 (56%) for the week and 105-90 (54%) so far for the year.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Four.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Four.

I must admit that when I first looked at the point total result this week I was shocked at how good my algorithm performed. My recommended bets went 11-3 (79%) with the one lock pick also being correct.

That said, the overall results for the year are still pretty bad. The locks are performing with a record of just 9-12 (43%) while the full set of recommended bets are 47-53 (47%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Four, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Four.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Four.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Four.

It was a relatively quiet week in the Big Ten as five teams had a bye and three other teams were in contests with intrastate rivals that were all as uncompetitive as expected. Oregon and Washington both got big wins over Oregon State and Washington State while Purdue took a 26-point loss at Notre Dame. 

Iowa pulled away from Rutgers late, and as we know, USC was able to handle the Spartans in L.A. The other three games will likely have some impact on the broader Big Ten race.

The only upset on the board in Big Ten country this week was Maryland's 17-point beat down of Wisconsin in Madison. The Badgers fall to 2-2 and continue to have the most challenging conference schedule. My computer gives Wisconsin just a 24% chance to make a bowl game.

As for Maryland, the Terrapins are 4-0 and up to No. 33 in my latest power ranking. I am not ready to say that they will challenge for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game as their odds are just 6%. 

However, I currently place Maryland in the second tier of Big Ten teams along with No. 18 USC (15% odd to make the Big Ten Championship), No. 24 Washington (8%), No. 16 Illinois (7.5%), and No. 26 Nebraska (3.6%). These teams are all on track to win eight or nine games but not to seriously contend for the conference crown.

Speaking of the Cornhuskers, Nebraska failed to contain the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. As a result the Maize and Blue are up to fourth place in the top tier of my current Big Ten leaderboard with a 25% chance to reach the conference title game.

The most eye-popping result of the weekend was Indiana's demolition of No. 16 Illinois in Bloomington. This win has vaulted the Hoosiers up to No. 2 in my power rankings nationally and to the top of the Big Ten leaderboard. 

My computer give Indiana a 49% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game. This is notably higher than No. 6 Oregon (32%), No. 3 Ohio State (30%), No. 14 Michigan (25%), and No. 10 Penn State (21%). Those teams all currently make up the top tier and primary title contenders in the Big Ten.

The Hoosiers have tough road games at Oregon, at Penn State, and at Maryland yet to come. If Indiana can win two of those three games, they will most likely make the trip to Indianapolis in the first week of December.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State did not get the win on Saturday, but they did manage to cover the 16 point opening spread. In addition, the Spartans got a small secondary bump when Western Michigan upset presumed MAC leader Toledo. As a result, Michigan State inched up to No. 59 in my latest power ranking.

My simulation calculates the Spartans' expected win total to be 5.92 which translates into a 57% chance of at least a 6-6 record and a bowl game. The other potential post season odds are a bit ugly.

I currently give the Spartans a 0.27% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 1-in-1,500 chance to win the Big Ten, a 0.95% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-7,400 chance to win the National Title.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining nine games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Four and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Four and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

As we learn more about each college football team, the picture becomes more clear. My simulation give the Spartans similar odds in the road game at Nebraska (-11.5) and the home games against Michigan (-10) and Penn State (-12). While those lines are look bad, math says that there is a 53% chance that the Spartans can get at least one upset win in that trio of games.

The home game against UCLA (+21) still looks very winnable. But after the Hoosiers' performance this weekend the Spartans' road game at Indiana (-25) looks like it could get ugly for the Green and White. The other three games are the ones likely to determine the Spartans' ultimate fate in 2025.

The good news is that even though Minnesota had a bye, the Golden Gopher dropped 15 spots to No. 71 in my power rankings. Minnesota's only two FBS-level previous opponents took ugly upset losses this week. Buffalo was upset by Troy and California, which beat Minnesota, was blanked by San Diego State. Note that San Diego State could not stay within three touchdowns on Washington State in Week Two.

As a result, my computer is projecting that Michigan State at Minnesota is now a toss up. The projected line for the Michigan State game at Iowa (-4.5) held steady this week.

The bad news is that Maryland suddenly looks a lot better than expected. The projected line for this game is now equal to that of the road game at Iowa: 4.5 points. If the Spartans need a win or two to earn a trip to a bowl, there will be opportunities at the end of the season.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Four. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Four.

It was a fairly uneventful weekend in the SEC as most games followed the expected path. Several teams got blowout nonconference wins, Oklahoma beat Auburn, Missouri beat South Carolina, and Florida was blown out at Miami. The only real surprise was Arkansas fumbling away the game at Memphis.

Oklahoma remains ranked No. 1 nationally and at the top of my SEC leaderboard with 45% odds to make the SEC Championship Game. No. 5 Alabama (27%), No. 11 Georgia (25%), No. 4 LSU (25%), No. 9 Ole Miss (23%), and No. 13 Texas (15%) round out the top six.

In Big 12 action, Texas Tech got a key upset win over Utah, BYU survived a test at East Carolina, Kansas dominated West Virginia, and Arizona State edged Baylor in key conference action. Also, we learned that Oklahoma State is very bad. The Cowboys lost as a two-touchdown favorite to Tulsa.

My computer still has idle No. 12 Houston at the top of the Big 12 leaderboard with a 42.4% chance to make the Big 12 Championship. No. 7 BYU (42.1%) is right on the Cougars' heels. No. 22 Texas Tech (27%) made a big jump up to third place and No. 25 Kansas (19%) rounds out the current conference top tier.

In the ACC, No. 8 Miami Hurricanes solidified their position at the top of the ACC leaderboard thanks to a 19-point win over Florida. I have Miami with a 60% chance to make the conference title game. No. 20 Florida State (36%) remains the most likely team to join them.

As for other possible contenders, No. 45 Georgia Tech (25%) has the best odds followed No. 36 Louisville (18%) and No. 44 Virginia (15%). I am confident that it won't be No. 57 Clemson (0.6%) considering the Tiger's ugly double-digit loss at home to Syracuse.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Four.

The Group of Five team to make the 12-team playoff is still very likely to come out of the American Athletic Conference (AAC). Members of the AAC occupy the top three spots on the Group of Five Leaderboard and six of the top eight spots.

North Texas has assumed the top spot this week at 26% playoff odds following an upset win over conference foe Army. Memphis (21%) moved into second place after the upset win over Arkansas, with South Florida (12%) holding steady in third place.

East Carolina (6.4%) and Tulane (5.4%) both lost and failed to cover against BYU and Ole Miss, respectively. Both teams dropped out of the top four.

Old Dominion (10.3%) from the Sun Belt has the best odds outside of the AAC. Louisiana Tech (5.6%) is also a team to watch from Conference USA. Louisiana Tech easily covered the spread against Southern Miss this weekend and kept the score close at LSU in Week Two.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I hope that this edition was pretty good or at the very least not bad. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice