Bad Betting Advice 2025 Week Three: When You Were Young

We are only three weeks into the season, but the opponent on the Michigan State schedule this week is causing me to feel a bit retrospective. I find myself thinking back to days when we were all a little younger. 

This week the Spartans welcome the Youngstown State Penguins to East Lansing. The Spartans have won all three previous meetings with the Penguins in 2011, 2013, and 2021.

The series began 14 years ago at a time when the program was also towards the beginning of a rebuild. Non-conference games against the FCS opponent from Youngstown, Ohio were scheduled in part due to the many connections between head coach Mark Dantonio and that program. 

Dantonio's first job as a defensive coordinator was at Youngstown State from 1986 to 1990 under head coach Jim Tressel. Jim's nephew Mike also served the Spartans' linebacker coach the first time the Penguins visited East Lansing.

At the time, Dantonio was attempting to shape his Spartan program by establishing many of the same fundamentals that he learned while on the Youngstown State staff. Dantonio constructed his teams to run the ball and to be hard as nails on defense. Some even labeled this style of play "Tressel ball."

Now, as the Spartans prepare to face Youngstown State once again, second-year head coach Jonathan Smith is once again trying to rebuild the Michigan State program using a similar blueprint based on hard-nosed defense and a ground attack. Smith also adds a modern, slightly west-coast flavor.

Coincidentally, past visits to East Lansing from Youngstown State have corresponded with excellent seasons by the Green and White. In 2011, Michigan State won the Big Ten Legends Division enroute to 11 wins, including a win over Georgia in the Outback Bowl.

In 2013, the Spartans won the Big Ten and finished 13-1 after beating Stanford in the Rose Bowl. In 2021, Michigan State won 11 games, culminating with a win over Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl. The expectations at the beginning of those season were modest, at best. That feels like good karma.

Will Smith eventually be able put the Spartans in position to climb the mountain to the heights achieved by Dantonio back when you were young? Is there the potential to climb higher than ever before? Could that ascent happen as soon as this year?

Honestly, I don't know. I would like to believe that they can make it, but fans need to accept they they will have to take it slow. Last weekend's win over Boston College was a step in the right direction, but the remainder of the schedule is a killer. 

I am generally a person that always looks on the bright side, but I am only human. I am not convinced that Michigan State will win enough games to make a bowl game.

But if you would have told me at the beginning of Dantonio's second season that the Spartans were on the cusp of a run of that would include seven double-digit win seasons, three Big Ten title, three New Years Six bowl wins, a playoff appearance, and 10 wins over Michigan over 14 seasons, I would not have believed you.

Both the current season and the tenure of Jonathan Smith are still young and full of potential and possibility. The future is unwritten. It is okay to imagine a return to the type of program success back when you were young. You can dip you feet in that pool of optimism every once in a little while.

Michigan State Prediction

As mentioned above, the Spartans welcome the Youngstown State Penguins to East Lansing this week. The Penguins are members of the Missouri Valley Conference and Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). Michigan State is 10-0 all time against FCS opponents.

When one sees the abbreviation "FCS," one might assume that this weekend will be a complete cake walk. But a closer look gives me some pause.

Not all FCS teams are created equally. In the FBS. there is a clear difference between a top 10 team like Ole Miss and a top 100 team like Northwestern. In Bill Connelly's most recent ranking, Youngstown State is ranked No. 7 in the FCS.

When I dig deeper into my power rankings, on a neutral field, Youngstown State projects to be favored to in hypothetical matchups with both New Mexico (+3) and UMass (+21). This means that Michigan State will have a tougher opponent than either UCLA or Iowa this week.

The Spartans' Week One opponent, Western Michigan, would be favored over the Penguins by less than one point. I project that UCLA would only be a three-point favorite over Youngstown State. As ridiculous as it might sound, Youngstown State might be better than two of the FBS teams on the Michigan State schedule this year.

As one would guess from this preamble, Youngstown State is off to a strong start in 2025. The Penguins are 2-0 with wins over Mercyhurst (24-15) and Robert Morris (56-17). 

Youngstown State is led by Junior quarterback Beau Brungard. In just two games this season, Brungard has completed over 70% of his passes. More interestingly, he has rushed for over 409 yards and over 10 yards per carry. He is credited with seven touchdowns, including six on the ground. 

I don't care who the competition is. Those are impressive stats. Youngstown State could present some unique challenges to the defense. I do not mean to imply that Brungard is the Second Coming or anything, but the Penguins will not be a pushover.

Michigan State should still get a comfortable win. But, something tells me that the game could be much closer, much later in the game than many Spartan fans are excepting. As for a final score, my computer spits out a projection of Michigan State 38, Youngstown State 15.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Three, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Three, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

The Big Ten slate includes 13 non-conference games, six of which are against FCS opponents, and the first two conference games of the season. Washington has the week off.

Only two of the contests have projected spreads under 20 points and only one of the games has a spread below 14 points. The six games against FCS opponents should be fairly easy wins. Iowa should have no trouble with UMass (+33) and Oregon should similarly have no trouble on the road at Northwestern (+28.5).

But there are a few storylines worth keeping an eye on.

Illinois host Western Michigan (+28). From a Michigan State point of view, It will be informative to see how the Broncos fare against a different Big Ten opponent.

Ohio State (-34) is a huge favorite over Ohio, but the Bobcats played Rutgers close in Week One and just beat West Virginia. Both my algorithm and the FPI expect this intrastate clash to be closer than the spread implies.

Similarly, Michigan (-27) should have no trouble with Central Michigan. But, the Wolverines have not been able to beat the spread yet this year. Will that trend continue? Michigan fans will certainly be looking on the bright side here.

UCLA (0-2) is really struggling out of the gate. This week the Bruins face New Mexico (+14). The computers project that this game could be closer than expected as well. It will also tell us a little bit more about the quality of the Wolverine's win over the Lobos in Week One.

USC is a big favorite at Purdue (+20.5) but my computer also sees this game as potentially being closer than expected. Is it on to something?

Wisconsin is a big underdog on the road at Alabama (-20.5), but my faith in Crimson Tide was rattled after the Week One loss at Florida State. My computer also projects this game to be closer than Vegas expects.

The only game that is projected to be competitive is the Golden Gophers' road trip to Berkeley to face California (+1.5). The computers all agree that this one will come right down to the wire, but something tells me that Minnesota will get the win fairly easily.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football scene in Week Three. 

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Three including my algorithm's projected scores.

There are seven or eight teams that could legitimately challenge for the SEC Title this year. In Week Three, we should start to see some indications as to whether some teams are contenders or pretenders. 

Currently, my computer has been impressed with LSU. The Tigers (-9.5) will have a great chance to get their first conference win this week against Florida. The Gators will be motivated to rebound from last week's upset loss to South Florida.

The biggest game in SEC land is Georgia's road trip up I-75 to face Tennessee (+6) as the winner will get an early jump on the conference standings. Both algorithms like the home underdog Volunteers to get the upset win.

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame plan to use Texas A&M (+6.5) as the highlight of their playoff resume. After losing to Miami in Week One, the Irish have vanishingly few opportunities to rack up quality wins. A home loss to Texas A&M would likely kill the Golden Domers' playoff hopes.

The race in the Big 12 is wide open, but so far my computer is high on both Arizona and Houston. They host Kansas State (pick'em) and Colorado (+5) respectively this week. The results should provide at least a little bit of clarity.

In ACC action, Clemson got a scare last week from Troy at home. This week, the computers are forecasting an even bigger scare at Georgia Tech (+5.5). An upset loss could wreck the Tigers' season.

For comparative reasons, I will also have my eye on Boston College as the Eagles travel out west to face Stanford (+10.5). It would certainly help the Spartans' strength of schedule if Boston College were to get a big win.

The remaining seven games in Table 2 highlight some of the projected contenders in the Group of Five conferences. 

In the American Athletic Conference, Tulane (-2.5) and North Texas (-4) are both favored at home against Duke and Washington State, respectively. Memphis will have the challenging task of facing Troy (+6.5) on the road. 

The most interesting matchup is South Florida at Miami (-14.5). The Bulls have already knocked off Boise State and Florida. If South Florida can hang with or even beat the Hurricanes, they will start to look like the heavy favorites in AAC and therefore a heavy favorite to make the playoffs.

The other three games feature potential contenders in the other Group of Five Conferences. Louisiana Tech should get a win over New Mexico State (+10.5), while Old Dominion (+7.5) and Wyoming (+23.5) are underdogs at Virginia Tech and versus Utah.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Three.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Three.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Three.

My algorithm is feeling a bit frisky with a total of nine upset picks, over half of which have a line greater than five points. Interestingly, EPSN's FPI agrees on six of the nine picks and offers no additional suggestions.

The most notable upset picks on the board are South Florida over Miami, Old Dominion over Virginia Tech, Tennessee over Georgia, and Georgia Tech over Clemson. Also note that so far this year my upset picks have been correct over 60% of the time.

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 9.3 plus-or-minus 2.5 upsets out of 47 total games involving two FBS team is most likely. These values are virtually identical to those generated in the first two weeks of the season.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Three. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

This week my computer suggests a total of seven bets against the spread. My analysis of the FPI data supports two of my picks and provides three additional recommendations.

The notable selections here are Ohio to cover against Ohio State (-34), Wyoming to cover versus Utah (-23.5), Kentucky to cover versus Eastern Michigan (+24.5), and Stanford to cover versus Boston College (-10.5).

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Three. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My algorithm is making a recommendation for 22 point total bets this week, including four picks in the "lock" category. After a solid Week One, the point total bets were a disaster in Week Two. If you are thinking that it might be good to avoid these picks this week, you read my mind. I will keep an eye on these picks as the season rolls on, but for now my confidence in them is shaken.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. I will be back early next week to give my view on everything that went down and what it all means. 

If things do not go as smoothly as hoped at the beginning of the game on Saturday, just remember the immortal words of that other Michigan State coach named John Smith: "Smile!" (like you mean it.) Everything will be alright... Most likely.