Against All Odds, 2025 Week Eight: The Pursuit of Happiness

If I am being completely honest, I am confused by many of the thing that I have read and seen about Michigan State Football over the past few weeks.

The results on the field have been frustrating and disappointing so far this season. But the sad truth is that the results are also not that surprising. In case you have forgotten, allow me to refresh your memory about some of the details from my preseason analysis back in August

The experts in Las Vegas set the Spartans' regular win total over/under at 5.5 wins. My simulation of the full season gave a value of 5.26 win. Additional calculation revealed that Michigan State had a 43% chance to reach a bowl game. 

The odds for a 3-9 record or worse were 21%. The odds for a 4-8 record or worse were 38%. After seven games, the expected win total was 3.66.

These calculations tacitly assumed that the Spartans would have neutral luck both on the field and with injuries. It can be argued that a few teams on the Michigan State schedule including Boston College, UCLA, and Penn State are a lot worse than expected. That's true.

But a peak at the current Michigan State injury report and a look at the current turnover margin (-3) suggests to me that the Spartans are on the overall negative side of the luck calculation.

When all this information is taken together, is the current 3-4 record for the Spartans actually a surprise?

As the saying goes, happiness is the difference between reality and expectation. The current reality is not great, but neither were the expectations. Back in the summer, everyone said that this season could be a struggle and that just making a bowl game would be progress. We all hoped and believe that Michigan State could overachieve. So far, that has not happened.

I am not saying that Spartan fans shouldn't be at liberty to feel disappointed, frustrated or even angry. I am not saying that Spartan fans should accept or embrace mediocrity. What I am saying is that Spartan fans need to accept reality and chill out just a little bit.

That reality is that Michigan State remains in the depths of a program rebuild. The program lost traction at the end of the Mark Dantonio era, and Mel Tucker effectively drove the program into the ditch. It is taking the tow truck longer than planned to arrive. Sometimes, patience is required. That's just life.

Furthermore, there are certainly a lot of fanbases with a right to be a lot sadder than Michigan State fans. Would it be better to be a fan of Penn State or Clemson right now? Those teams were supposed to compete for a national title instead of just fighting for a low-level bowl game. 

How about teams like Florida, South Carolina, and Kansas State? Those teams started the season in the top 20. As of today, none of those teams are likely to reach the postseason. Would Spartan fans like to trade places with Wisconsin? The Badgers have scored a total of 20 points in their last four games combined.

For me, the current level of angst that I sense the Spartan fanbase is an overreaction. The danger in overreaction is that it can often make a bad situation worse. 

The modern college sports landscape has turned into a throw money-at-the-problem, instant-gratification pursuit of sports happiness. But a having a winning football program is not an inalienable right. 

It's takes time to chase that dream. More often than we would like to admit, luck and other external factors play a large role in winning a losing. Programs that make impulsive decisions often wind up chasing their own tails.

If Michigan State were to fire part or all of the current coaching staff mid-season, as some talking heads are suggesting, would the Spartans be better or worse off in five years? Maybe Michigan State would roll a Yahtzee on the next coaching staff and become a top five team like Indiana. Sure. That's mathematically possible. 

But as someone who is pretty good at math, I don't like those odds.

Week Eight Betting Results

Let's now take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Eight showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 12 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes Oregon, North Texas, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Central Florida, and Boise State. The only team to fail to cover the spread by 14 points, yet win, was Virginia.

A total of 17 teams were saddened by an upset loss in Week Eight. This is the most upsets of any week so far this season, but this value is very much in line with my prediction of 16.4 late last week. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Eight based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The biggest upset of the week was UAB's upset of Memphis (-21). Other notable upsets in Week eight include Stanford over Florida State (-17.5), Louisville over Miami (-13), SMU over Clemson (-10.5), Arizona State over Texas Tech (-10), Minnesota over Nebraska (-5), BYU over Utah (-3), Missouri over Auburn (-2.5), and Georgia Tech over Duke (-2.5).

My algorithm essentially met expectations this week, so I am fairly happy with it. My computer went 4-5 (44%) which brings the year to-date-performance to 26-35 (42.6%). 

ESPN's FPI went 5-1 (83%) for the week. Someone in Bristol, Conn. is likely ecstatic about these numbers. But the year-to-date performance up to just 16-25 (39%) which is still below expectations.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Eight.

My algorithm was perfectly average this week, going 3-3 (50%) on its recommendations. This brings the year-to-date performance to 25-22 (53%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted in just one recommended picks against the spread, which was incorrect. ESPN's metric thus slips to at 20-15 (57%) for the year.

Considering all 59 games this weekend, my computer went a jolly 33-26 (56%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 199-212 (48%). The FPI did not do as well, going 26-33 (44%) against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performance down to 195-216 (47%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Eight.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Eight.

The point total bets continue to be a sad disappointment. This week the lock picks went 3-4 (43%) which brings the year-to-date performance to 15-18 (46%).

The full set of recommended bets went 3-6 (33%) this weekend, bringing the overall performance for the year to 67-75 (47%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Eight, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Eight.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Eight.

The top three teams in the conference had little or no trouble this weekend as No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, and No. 3 Oregon all won going away at the expense of No. 89 Wisconsin, No. 71 Michigan State, and No. 75 Rutgers.

Indiana (91%) and Ohio State (81%) continue to have a commanding lead in odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game. Oregon (17%) is the only team with over a 5% chance to spoil the party in Indianapolis. All three teams are very likely to make the college football playoffs.

No. 18 Michigan (4.3%) is a distant fourth on my current Big Ten leaderboard thanks to a strong performance at home against No. 34 Washington. 

No. 15 USC (4.0%) dropped a non-conference game on the road to No. 4 Notre Dame, but held steady in my power rankings. No. 22 Iowa (2.5%) also handed Penn State its fourth consecutive loss. 

As a result, Michigan, USC, Iowa, and Washington are all on track for a solid record and bowl game appearance. Penn State, however, now only has a 59% chance to even qualify for the post season.

No. 45 Northwestern had another great weekend, this time by shutting out No. 70 Purdue. No. 64 Minnesota scored the only upset in Big Ten play this week at the expense of No. 52 Nebraska.

Purdue is virtually eliminated for bowl contention with just 0.7% odds to reach six wins. However, Minnesota (93%), Northwestern (89%), and Nebraska (89%) are all in a very strong position to qualify for a bowl bid.

The same cannot be said for either No. 62 Maryland (55%) or No. 73 UCLA (3%). The Bruins were able to protect their home field against the Terrapins this weekend. 

But UCLA already has four losses with road games at Indiana, Ohio State, and USC on the schedule. Maryland has a better shot to get to six wins, but the Terrapins may need to wait until the final game of the season at Ford Field to get it.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Based on just the raw numbers, the Spartans essentially met expectations in this week's loss in Bloomington. The late field goal even allowed Michigan State to cover the spread, which is a result that certainly made some people happy and others quite sad.

The Spartans' overall outlook is largely unchanged. Michigan State actually rose slightly in my computer's power rankings to No. 71, but the expected win total drooped slightly to just 4.32 wins.

The odds for Michigan State just to reach the six win threshold needed to qualify for a bowl game are down to 15%. 

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining five games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Eight and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

With the Spartans holding steady the biggest thing to watch for is the relative performance of the Spartans past and remaining opponents. Michigan had a solid win over Washington, while Penn State and Iowa played each other and were separated by a single point.

As a result, Michigan State is projected as an 11- to 15.5-point underdog in the three remaining games against those opponents. This includes next week's game against Michigan. My simulation correctly predicted the opening 12.5-point spread.

If the Spartans are going to be successful in their pursuit of bowl game berth, they will need to win at least one of those three remaining games. They will also need to win likely both of the other two games on the schedule.

Last week, the road game at Minnesota looked like the most winnable game left on the schedule. However, the Golden Gophers beat Nebraska by 18 points this weekend. This result has pushed that projected spread to six-points for the home team.

Now, the regular season finale at Ford Field against Maryland (-3) looks to be the most realistic chance at a win following the Terrapins loss at UCLA. That said, both teams could be fighting for a sixth win in that contest, which is not ideal for Spartan fans. 

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Eight. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Eight.

We are finally starting to see a little separation in the chase for the SEC title. After the results of Week Eight, only two teams remain undefeated in conference play. Both are currently located at the top of my SEC leaderboard.

No. 10 Alabama (60% odds to reach the SEC Title Game) retired the Tennessee Volunteers this weekend and continue to lead the pack. No. 12 Texas A&M (33%) had a much closer call at No. 41 Arkansas and remain in second place. 

No. 9 Georgia (32%) was also a big winner this weekend. The Bulldogs came from behind to beat No. 16 Ole Miss (11%) and only trail Texas A&M by a few percentage points. Georgia has the advantage of a much easier schedule down the stretch.

No. 5 Oklahoma (27%) remains in pursuit of the SEC title after a double-digit win at No. 63 South Carolina. The Sooners will have a chance at Alabama on Nov. 15 to move up in the standings.

No. 11 Texas (18%) avoided disaster at No. 66 Kentucky in overtime to also stay in the SEC race. No. 21 Vanderbilt (9%) remains in the hunt after taming the No. 14 LSU Tigers (5%).

In Big 12 action, No. 7 Texas Tech (63%) was starting to pull away, but the Red Raider were tripped up at No. 56 Arizona State (8%). The race is now a bit more wide open. No. 13 BYU (62%) is the main beneficiary. The Cougars moved jumped up over 20 percentage points on my Big 12 leaderboard after a home win against No. 8 Utah (15%).

No. 37 Cincinnati (27%) blew out No. 120 Oklahoma State and ascended to third place on my leaderboard. The Bearcats are undefeated in conference play, but they still have games remaining at BYU and versus Utah.

No. 33 Houston (15%) is also still in pursuit of a Big 12 title following a win this weekend over No. 35 Arizona.

If any team would like to win the ACC Conference, please raise your hand. Last week the numbers were pointing to a likely Miami/Duke ACC Championship game. But multiple upsets in Week Eight have turned the race upside down.

First, No. 19 Louisville (37% odds to reach the ACC Championship Game) upset No. 6 Miami (33%). Then, No. 40 Duke (16%) fell at home to No. 32 Georgia Tech (51%) and No. 27 Virginia (36%) barely escaped with a win against No. 51 Washington State.

When the smoke cleared, Georgia Tech emerged as the new favorite, thanks to a 4-0 conference record and a very manageable remaining schedule. Louisville, Virginia, and Miami are the most likely team to join the Yellow Jackets in the ACC Title Game.

No. 53 SMU (15%) remains undefeated in conference play after an upset win over No. 61 Clemson. The Mustangs still have tough challenges ahead versus Miami and Louisville, which makes a return to the ACC Championship Game less likely.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the teams from the Group of Five which are hot in pursuit for a automatic spot in the college football playoff.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Eight.

In American Athletic Conference (AAC) action, the main contenders simply needed to avoid upsets in order to maintain the status quo. Teams such as No. 36 South Florida (60% odds to reach the AAC Championship Game), No. 29 Tulane (52%), No. 23 North Texas (42%), and No. 28 East Carolina (24%) did just that against No. 117 Florida Atlantic, No. 67 Army, No. 76 Texas San Antonio, and No. 97 Tulsa, respectively. 

However, last week's leader, No. 44 Memphis (12%), missed the memo as the Tigers dropped a game on the road to No. 116 UAB. As a result, the odds for Memphis to reach the playoffs as the Group of Five representative dropped to 5% and seventh place.

Tulane (25%), South Florida (25%), and North Texas (19%) currently hold down the top three spots on the Group of Five Leaderboard. 

The next team up is No. 24 San Diego State (8%). The Aztecs had the week off but they are 5-1 and project to be a double-digit favorite in their six remaining games, including a home game on No. 15 against No. 69 Boise State.

Rounding out the top five is No. 49 James Madison. The Dukes are 6-1 and the current favorite (53%) to win the Sun Belt conference title. James Madison took a 14-point loss at Louisville in Week Two but beat No. 42 Old Dominion by 36 points in conference play this weekend.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I know that in my life and am I glad that I have the liberty to pursue the knowledge that sports analytics offer. What can I say? It's make me happy. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.