Against All Odds, 2025 Week Seven: Dark Clouds

I noticed something odd during my drive to East Lansing on Saturday morning. When I left my house, the skies were mostly clear and the sun was shining. It looked like a beautiful fall day in Michigan. I was expecting a beautiful day for football in Spartan Stadium.

But as I approached East Lansing from the east on I-96, I noticed a large bank of grey, dark cloud rising up in front of me. It looked like some sort of meteorological depression was hovering over the city. I did not realize it at the time, but it was a dark portent for what was about to transpire on the gridiron.

I was confident that after two tough road games in a row, the Michigan State Spartans would play a disciplined, sharp game of football on homecoming against the 1-4 UCLA Bruins. I expected a double-digit, feel good win that would set the stage for the backend of the season and a likely bowl game for the first time since 2021.

I was wrong.

Instead, it was UCLA that came ready to play. The Bruins mauled the Spartans in every phase of the game. UCLA brought a level of energy to the contest that Michigan State did not come close to matching after the first seven minutes.

I have always believed that Jonathan Smith was the correct man to lead the Michigan State program following the fall from grace of former Spartan coach Mel Tucker. Smith was the top coach on the board at the end of the 2023 season. I was mildly surprised that Michigan State was able to reel him in.

But the Spartans have struggled over the past season and half since Smith's arrived. Rebuilding a program is a difficult challenge, and a stormy days are to be expected. But this loss feels different. This loss feels like one that a different John Smith took on a rainy homecoming day in 2006 against Illinois. 

That Fighting Illini team finished 2-10 on the season. That win at Spartan Stadium was only the program's second Big Ten win in four seasons. John L. Smith won only one more game that season before being fired after four years in East Lansing.

I am not saying that Michigan State should move on from Jonathan Smith. I continue to be an optimist and I think that any coach needs more than 18 games to establish a program and a culture. If nothing else, while it might seem like fun at the time, jumping on the coaching carousel again this quickly more often than not simply makes one dizzy, if not nauseous.

But I cannot deny that the vibes following the loss on Saturday are not good. Dark clouds have descended on the Michigan State program once again. Coach Smith and his staff desperately need to give Spartan fans something to feel good about. But the forecast for the next few weeks does not look any brighter. The weather is likely to get worse before it gets better.

If you are looking for other words of encouragement or a path forward for the program, I don't have much more to offer. I am also lost in the storm right now. But I will leave you with this.

As I drove home from East Lansing Saturday afternoon, at some point in my drive I realized that the I could see blue skies once again. The sun was once again visible in the sky. Bad weather is always temporary. The sun will rise again on the Michigan State program. I just can't forecast when. 

Week Seven Betting Results

Let's now take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Seven showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 12 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes Texas San Antonio, Western Michigan, Iowa, San Diego State, Utah, Wake Forest, Clemson, and USC. The only team to fail to cover the spread by 14 points, yet win, was Ole Miss.

A total of 13 teams lost in upset fashion, which was a few less than the value of 15 upsets predicted by weekly simulation. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Seven based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The biggest upset of the week was Penn State's loss at home to Northwestern (+21.5). In back-to-back weeks, Penn State was the victim of the two biggest upsets of the year. They say that lightning doesn't strike twice, but I am sure they also said James Franklin's job was safe. Neither statement appears true.

Other notable upsets in Week Seven include Marshall over Old Dominion (+13), Pittsburgh over Florida State (+9.5), UCLA over Michigan State (+7.5), Colorado over Iowa State (+3.5), and South Florida over North Texas (+2.5)

There was also a dark cloud hanging over my algorithm's upset picks this week. It went just 2-10 (16.7%) which brings the year to-date-performance down to 22-30 (42.3%). Just two weeks ago my upset pick performance was sitting at over 58%. The direction of the wind changed quickly.

ESPN's FPI went 1-3 (25%) for the week, bringing its year-to-date tally to an even darker 11-24 (31.4%). 

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Seven.

It was a little bit brighter on this front in Week Seven. My algorithm went 5-6 (45.5%) which brings the year-to-date performance up to 22-19 (54%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted in no recommended picks against the spread. ESPN's metric remains at 20-14 (59%) for the year.

Considering all 56 games this weekend, my computer went 27-29 (48%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 166-186 (47%). The FPI performed a bit worse, going 25-31 (45%) against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performance down to 169-183 (48%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Seven.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Seven

The lone lock picks was wrong, but the other three recommended picks were correct resulting in a record of 3-1 (75%) for the week.

Year-to-date, the locks are a gloomy 12-14 (46%) while the full set of recommended bets are 64-69 (48%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Seven, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Seven.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Seven.

The big winners in the Big Ten were No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana as both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers went on the road and earned wins over No. 14 Illinois and No. 7 Oregon. Indiana (91%) and Ohio State (82%) have a commanding lead in the race to reach the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Ducks (10%) still have an outside shot to back into the conference title game, but no other team has odds greater than five percent. 

No. 15 USC (4.6%) took care of business against No. 21 Michigan (3.7%) but both teams are mostly likely now vying for spots in non-playoff bowl games. It is like being outside on a chilly day with just a windbreaker.

A handful of other Big Ten schools are in a similar situation. No. 20 Washington (3%) got a win over No. 64 Rutgers. No. 19 Iowa (2.7%) rocketed up my Big Ten leaderboard after blowing out and shutting out No. 80 Wisconsin. No. 36. Nebraska (0.91%) was able to avoid a road upset at No. 47 Maryland.

Those three teams are all on track for an 8-4 record and a solid bowl game.

No. 14 Illinois is likely out of the hunt for the Big Ten title after losing to both Indiana and Ohio State. However, the Fighting Illini have a solid chance to run the table. If Illinois finishes at 10-2, a playoff berth is a very real possibility.

The rest of the conference will be battling each other simply for bowl eligibility. In this tier, Maryland has the best odds to get to six wins at 81%, followed by No. 73 Minnesota (67%). The Golden Gophers were able to hold off No. 49 Purdue this weekend.

No. 70 Northwestern scored the upset of the week at No. 42 Penn State and now both teams are squarely on the bowl eligibility bubble. I currently have the Wildcats (51%) with slightly higher odds than the Nittany Lions (45%).

None of the remaining five Big Ten teams has better than a 20% chance to reach the postseason.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Following last weekend's loss to Nebraska, the analysis that I performed the next day told me that the situation for the Spartans was not as bad as most people were making it out to be. One week later, the data might be saying that things are even worse than some fans fear..

The blowout loss to No. 83 UCLA at home has blown a hole in the Spartans' metrics. Michigan State sank to No. 77 in my recent power ranking. The new expected win total plummeted to just 4.40 wins.

In my updated simulation of the full college football season, the Spartans have no shot to win the Big Ten or to make the playoffs. The odds for Michigan State just to reach the six win threshold needed to qualify for a bowl game are down to 18%. 

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining six games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Seven  and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

If the Spartans are to salvage the season by getting to six wins, they will need to find a way to win half of the games in Figure 2. 

Next week's road game at Indiana (-27.5, based on the opening line on Sunday) will likely be the toughest game Michigan State plays all year. Even if  the Hoosiers are hungover and jetlagged following the big win at Oregon, it is hard to imagine the Spartans keeping this game within three touchdowns. A win would be the biggest upset of the season so far.

But after that, there will be opportunities for some wins. This assumes that the lack of energy and execution that took place against UCLA was an isolated incident. If the Spartans can find their way back to the level of play in even the road games at USC and Nebraska, they will have a chance. If not, a 3-9 record is absolutely on the table. As Table 5 implies, there is currently a 26% chance for this very dark future.

I currently project that the Spartans will be about an 11-point underdog against Michigan on Oct. 25. But Michigan State actually played USC better on the road than Michigan did. With that game in Spartan Stadium with the Spartans' backs against the wall, anything could happen.

The game on Nov. 1 at Minnesota (+3.5) appears to be the most winnable game left on the schedule. It will almost certainly need to go into the win column if the Spartans have any chance at the postseason.

After the bye week, Penn State (+7) will be coming to town, and this game is looking more winnable by the minute. On Sunday, Penn State fired coach James Franklin. Starting quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season with an injury. The wheels have completely come off the Nittany Lion bus.

Furthermore, Penn State's next three games are at Iowa (-3), at Ohio State, and versus Indiana. The Nittany Lions could easily be 3-6 by the time they make it to East Lansing. Will they even have the will to fight be then?

The Spartan then travel to Iowa (-17) on Nov. 22. The Hawkeyes are honestly a tough team to figure out. They looked lackluster in the first four weeks of the season, but Iowa played Indiana tough and blew the doors off Wisconsin in the last two games. 

The Hawkeyes will be coming off a road trip to USC right before they host Michigan State. If they are a step slow and a bit sleepy, maybe the Spartans will have a chance.

Finally, Michigan State closes out the season against Maryland (+6.5) at Ford Field. The Terrapins got off to a 4-0 start in September, but they just lost back-to-back home games to Washington and Nebraska. Maryland has a reputation of fading as calendar turns to November.

If I put on my green colored glasses, I can imagine at least one or two wins in final six games. The odds of a 4-8 record are 32% and the odds of a 5-7 record are 24%. If the Spartans are going to make it to six, they are going to need to beat the odds. The road ahead feels like driving through a hailstorm at night.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Seven. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Seven.

Every week I expect that the SEC race will become clearer, but we are seven weeks into the season and it is still cloudy. 

For the last several weeks, No. 6 Oklahoma sat up the top of my SEC leaderboard. But after a 17-point loss to No. 11 Texas, the Sooners' odds to make the SEC Championship Game have tumbled down to just 19% and fifth place. Oklahoma now sits just ahead of Texas (16%) and No. 10 LSU (16%).

The Sooner's loss is a gain for No. 9 Alabama (55%), No. 8 Texas A&M (32%), No. 17 Ole Miss (26%) and No. 12 Georgia (25%) who make up my current top four. Alabama earned a rugged win on the road at No. 29 Missouri. Texas A&M got a 17-point win and covered against No. 41 Florida, while Georgia similarly covered at No. 33 Auburn.

Ole Miss won this weekend as well, but it was a lackluster three-point win at home against No. 51 Washington State.

In Big 12 action, No. 5 Texas Tech extended their lead on my conference leaderboard with a 25-point win over No. 37 Kansas. I now give the Red Raiders an 84% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. No 16 BYU (41%) remains in second place after a six-point win at No. 40 Arizona.

The other teams with solid odds to play in the conference game are No. 13 Utah (34%), which blew out No. 62 Arizona State, and No. 38 Cincinnati (23%), which beat No. 63 Central Florida.

As mentioned in last week's preview, it was a quiet week in the ACC with the top three teams on a bye week. No. 45 Georgia Tech almost exactly covered the spread in a 15-point win over No. 81 Virginia Tech. 

Overall, the race is status quo with No. 4 Miami (78%) with a commanding lead in odds to reach the conference championship game. No. 27 Duke (46%), No. 28 Virginia (33%), and Georgia Tech (23%) make up the rest of the top four.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Seven

Lost in some of the Power Four chaos this weekend was the fact that four teams lost which appeared in last week's Group of Five top six, including three teams which were favored.

No. 30 North Texas was upset at home by No. 32 South Florida in the American Athletic Conference. No. 25 Old Dominion was upset by No. 78 Marshall in Sun Belt action while No. 56 Louisiana Tech lost badly at No. 66 Kennesaw State in Conference USA.

In addition, No. 35 Tulane fended off an upset attempt by No. 23 East Carolina.

When the dust settled, the top three spots on my Group of Five leaderboard are occupied by the top three teams on my AAC leaderboard. No. 31 Memphis didn't even play this week and they rose to the top of the list with a 24.8% chance to make the playoffs. 

South Florida (24.2%) and Tulane (22%) are right on the Tigers' heals with North Texas (8.1%) currently in fourth place.

Old Dominion (2.5%) dropped to seventh place while Louisiana Tech (0.7%) dropped to eleventh place. It looks like both the Sun Belt and Conference USA are unlikely to send their eventual champion to the college football playoffs

As a result, the most likely non-AAC team to make the playoffs from the Group of Five is now No. 24 San Diego State (6.6%) from the Mountain West. The Aztecs are 5-1 with the only loss coming at No. 51 Washington State.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I've sunshine and I've seen rain in my tenure following Michigan State sports. Just like the weather in Michigan, things can and will change quickly. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.