Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Seven: One-Hit Wonders

There are times when a certain person, group, or piece of creative media rises into the public consciousness, seemingly from nowhere. In some cases, these concepts burst onto the scene and burn as bright as a supernova but soon fade into eternal darkness. 

In pop music, artists of this ilk are known as one-hit wonders. I would wager that many or all of you have heard the songs "Come on Eileen", "Tainted Love", "My Sharona", "Baby Got Back", "Mickey", and "I'm Too Sexy". Some of you can probably name the singer or group behind each of those songs. But can you name literally any other song from that artist?

Me neither.

The world of sports can also have its share of one-hit wonders and I am not just talking about the theme of my Against All Odds article from earlier in the week. Sometimes a player, a coach, or a program can turn the beat around for a game or even a season before fading once again into obscurity. 

But sometimes it is difficult, especially early on, to distinguish between a one-hit wonder and a trend. One can easily be mistaken for another. 

I once believed that a certain bald head coach who lived in East Lansing a few years ago would lead the Spartans to a Big Ten title. I also thought at the beginning of the year that Indiana football was unlikely to repeat the success of 2024. My computer currently has the Hoosier ranked No. 2 in the country.

This week's homecoming clash with the Bruins of UCLA will be a similar test of the one-hit wonder concept on several different fronts and both positive and negative.

On the Spartans' sideline, there were a lot of surprising misses in the loss at Nebraska last weekend. The Michigan State running attack was surprising unproductive. Quarterback Aidan Chiles was strangely inaccurate. Special teams play, which had been a strength, suddenly surrendered at least 10 points.

But there were also some hidden-gem hits buried in the rubble of the loss in Lincoln. The Spartan defense generated a pass rush for the first time since Week One. Cornhusker quarterback Dylan Raiola was sacked five times. Nebraska was held scoreless for six straight possessions, despite in some cases having excellent starting field position. 

Michigan State also learned that backup quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has the ability to lead the team down the field and into the end zone without make key mistakes that haunted his previous game experience. These are all major signs of progress.

The Bruins may also be experiencing a one-hit wonder moment of their own. Coming into last week's against against Penn State, the Bruins were winless. All signs suggested that UCLA was the worst team in the conference. It was not out of the question that the Bruins could go winless on the season.

But somehow UCLA was able to rise up at home and score the biggest upset of the season so far against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Does this mean that going forward the Bruins are suddenly going to play at a level similar to what was expected at the beginning of the season? Or, did the stars align for the Bruin in one shining moment against a sleepy and potential overrated team playing over a 2,500 miles from home and across the big country?

In my years of studying the data behind sports, I have learned the importance of not overreacting to single data points. More often than not, the data regresses to the mean. Even though we are only about half way through the 2025 football season, we have enough data to make a reasonable guesses as to what is real and what is just a little bad luck.

On Saturday, I do not expect multiple special teams blunders from the Spartans. I expect Aidan Chiles to revert to his previous self, and despite concerns about the offensive line, I expect the Michigan State rushing attack will be whipped back into shape.

I also expect to see a version of UCLA, a west coast team playing at 9 a.m. PDT, to revert to a version closer to the one that lost at UNLV by seven points, New Mexico by 25 points, and at Northwestern by three points.

I believe UCLA's performance last week was a one-week wonder, as were many of the issues the Spartans experienced in Lincoln. Furthermore, I think that some of the progress that Michigan State displayed last week on defense, although inconsistent, was not a one-week wonder. I believe that is a positive trend.

If I am right, I also believe that Michigan State will win this week's game when they take on UCLA, possible by multiple touchdowns. I even still believe that this success might turn into something more than just a passing fad for the remainder of this season and beyond.

In other words, relax, Spartans fans and don't worry, be happy.

Michigan State Prediction

The Michigan State Spartans and UCLA Bruins have only met six times in history and the last meeting was over 50 years ago. 

The first meeting of two school was the final game coached by Spartan legend Biggie Munn. Michigan State defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl to close out the 1953 season. Two years later in 1955, new coach Duffy Daugherty defeated the Bruins again in the Rose Bowl.

In the fall of 1965, the Spartans opened the season by hosting UCLA in East Lansing. Michigan State won that game, but the Bruins would later exact their revenge on Jan. 1 in the Rose Bowl. The loss was the Spartans' only loss of the season, but they would go on to share the National Title with Alabama anyway.

The two schools would not meet again until a home-at-home series in falls of 1973 and 1974. Michigan State lost both of those contests which brings the series record to 3-3 with the Bruins on a three-game win streak.

This year the point spread opened with Michigan State favored by 7.5 points. The line appears to be moving in the Spartans' direction, but based on the opening line Michigan State has a 70% chance of winning the game.

For the reasons outlined above, this point spread seems heavily influenced by recency bias. My computer is far, far more optimistic than Vegas. It proclaims that the spread is far too low. My algorithm is picking the Spartans in a homecoming blowout win: Michigan State 40, UCLA 18.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Seven, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Seven, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

For the first time this season, all 18 Big Ten teams are in conference action this week. Four of the nine games opened with spreads under 10 points. The top six teams in my Big Ten leaderboard all face another team from the same top group.

The biggest game on the schedule is No. 2 Indiana at No. 8 Oregon (-9.5), and the winner will have the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game. If Oregon wins, the Ducks will have an excellent shot to once again finish the regular season at 12-0. 

Indiana's upcoming schedule is tougher with road games remaining at Penn State and at Maryland, but the Hoosier would also be in a good position for conference glory with the win in Eugene. My computer is betting on Indiana with the upset.

No. 3 Ohio State is also a serious contender to make the Big Ten Championship Game. This week the Buckeyes have their second toughest remaining test at No. 12 Illinois (+14). A win keeps Ohio State in the lead pack. 

If Illinois were to upset the Buckeyes, the Fighting Illini would become a bona fide contender. My computer likes Illinois to cover but not to win.

No. 11 Michigan and No. 15 USC (-2.5) are not currently in the top three on my Big Ten leaderboard. The winner of the match between the two will get to stay in the Big Ten and Playoff race while the loser is likely headed for a traditional bowl game.

The remaining Big Ten games will likely only impact bowl positioning for the teams in the middle of the conference. 

No. 30 Washington is on trajectory for an eight-win season. The Huskies are unlikely to face much resistance at home against No. 71 Rutgers (+10.5).

No. 26 Nebraska and No. 39 Maryland also both seem safely in position to earn a bowl bid. The Cornhuskers are 3.5-point favorites on the road and will look to bad their bowl resume.

No. 46 Iowa and No. 52 Wisconsin are both currently trending towards the bowl-season bubble. Iowa (-3) is favored on the road, but my computer likes the Badgers in an upset win.

I am strangely intrigued by No. 37 Purdue at No. 86 Minnesota (-10). My computer thinks that Purdue is much better and Minnesota is much worse than Vegas thinks. I have the Boilermakers winning by double digits on the road as long as they do not have to walk the approximately 500 miles between West Lafayette and Minneapolis.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football landscape in Week Seven.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Seven including my algorithms' projected scores.

The race in the SEC continues to be difficult to predict, but each week seems to bring slightly more clarity. My computer has Oklahoma ranked No. 1 in the country and as the favorite to win the conference. However, the Sooners as a slight underdog to Texas (-3) in the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas. If my computer is correct, Oklahoma will win by double digits.

Three other potential SEC contenders will also face tough tests this week. No. 5 Alabama goes on the road to No. 33 Missouri (+5), No. 7 Texas A&M hosts No. 48 Florida (+7.5), and No. 16 Georgia visits No. 17 Auburn. My computer is picking both Texas A&M and Alabama to win and cover. However, I am issuing an upset alert for Georgia.

In the Big 12, No. 10 Texas Tech has risen to the top of my leaderboard. The Red Raiders are double-digit favored versus No. 28 Kansas (+14). Both computers like the Jayhawks to cover the spread.

No. 14 BYU projects as the second-best team in the Big 12 right now, but the Cougars might not stay in that position if they stumble on the road at No. 43 Arizona (+1.5).

Other potential Big 12 games of note are No. 34 Cincinnati (-10.5) versus No. 64 UCF, No. 18 Utah (-7.0) versus No. 53 Arizona State, and No. 31 Iowa State (-3.5) at No. 56 Colorado. Each of those teams needs to avoid the upset bug if they wish to stay near the top of the charts.

It projects to be a very quiet weekend in the ACC as the top three teams on my conference leaderboard, No. 6 Miami, No. 27 Virginia, and No. 29 Duke, are all idle. The most interesting game on the docket is No. 51 Georgia Tech (-14.5) versus No. 77 Virginia Tech.

In the Group of Five, the race in the American Athletic Conference heats up with a pair of games involving current conference favorites.

The biggest game is No. 57 South Florida at No. 23 North Texas (-2.5). I have the Mean Green as the favorite to win the AAC and to claim the Group of Five playoff spot. This week's clash with the Bulls with be their toughest test to date. My computer projects North Texas as a double-digit winner while the FPI forecasts a nailbiter.

The undercard in the AAC features No. 22 East Carolina at No. 41 Tulane (-6.5). Both teams are in the top five of my current Group of Five leaderboard, and my computer likes East Carolina with the upset. Either way, the winner the two featured AAC games will become the new favorites to reach the playoffs.

That said, it is still worth keeping an eye on No. 19 Old Dominion from the Sub Belt and No. 24 Louisiana Tech from Conference USA. Old Dominion is on the road at No. 96 Marshall (+13) while Louisiana Tech travels to No. 94 Kennesaw State (+6.5). My computer has both teams covering easily.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Seven.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Seven.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Seven.

My computer is off to a strong start with upset picks this year, but it had a tough Week Six on high volume. In Week Seven, my algorithm continues to be aggressive by spitting out an additional 12 upset picks. We will see if last week's performance was a one-week wonder or a concerning trend.

The most notable upsets picks of the week are Purdue over Minnesota (-10), Indiana over Oregon (-9.5), East Carolina over Tulane (-6.5), Auburn over Georgia (-3.5), and Oklahoma over Texas (-3).

The FPI data only suggests three upset picks in Group of Five, all of which are in alignment with my machine.

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 15.0 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets out of 54 games is most likely. This is the highest number of predicted upsets in any given week so far in the 2025 season. Perhaps my computer is on to something.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Seven. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My algorithm is offering 11 recommended picks against the spread including many of the upset picks from Table 3 above: Purdue (+10), New Mexico (+15.5), Temple (+7.5), Indiana (+9.5), and Oklahoma (+3.0) are all expected to cover as underdogs.

My computer is also confident that Michigan State (-7.5) will cover the spread against UCLA. My honest advice to any Spartan fan is to never bet on Michigan State, for and against, under any circumstance. It is impossible to separate emotion from reason. That said, this is the most confident that I have been in years that the Spartans will cover a spread.

My analysis of the FPI data does not reveal any recommended bets against the spread this week.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Seven. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

For some reason, my computer is only recommended a total of four point total bets. Only one is considered a lock: Charlotte and Army to combine for over 47.5 points.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. Unlike a one-hit wonder, I will be here each week to share my "wisdom." Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.