Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Six: Road Trip!

The Michigan State Spartans spent most of the month of September at home in East Lansing. Things got off to a good start as the Green and White raced out to a 3-0 start.

Two weeks ago, the Spartans boarded a plane bound for Los Angeles. Once they arrived, they found that that the night life out there is not all that they were hoping it would be. Michigan State returned from the west coast banged up and with a loss to USC. It was such a bummer of a trip that they took last weekend off.

This week, the freshly-rested Spartans are preparing for yet another road trip. This time the destination is Lincoln, Neb. and the opponent is the equally-well-rested Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

Lincoln is way closer to East Lansing than Los Angeles. Google Maps tells me that it is a mere 740 miles. One could make the drive in under 12 hours. That may sound like a lot, but just think about breathtaking scenery that awaits once one passes through Chicago and has the opportunity to drive through rural Illinois and Iowa.

As an added bonus, I hear the folks in Nebraska are super nice. Furthermore, the sun likely won't set until well into the fourth quarter. Basically, the whole setup appears to be an upgrade over the Spartans' last business trip.

The Spartans' journey so far this year is still filled with uncertainty. Some fans are optimistic that they will make it to a warm destination in time for the holidays. Other fans see some pitfalls on the map and are bracing themselves for a crash. The road game at Nebraska represents a small fork in that road.

The Spartans showed some interesting promise in the first four games of the season, but there have also been some noticeable, but perhaps correctable, problems. The Michigan State offense has been more explosive and more efficient as quarterback Aidan Chiles has matured. The defense has played well at times, but they blew a tire through large sections of the games against Boston College and USC. 

As for Nebraska, it isn't very clear how good or bad the Huskers really are. Nebraska opened the season with a close win over Cincinnati due in large part to an interception in the red zone with under a minute to play. After blowing out an FCS team and one of the weakest teams in the FBS (Akron), Nebraska lost a close game at home to Michigan. 

We are pretty sure at this point that Boston College isn't very good. But is Cincinnati good? Is USC? Is Michigan? On paper, Nebraska has the second best passing attacks in the nation (351.8 yards per game) and the top passing defense (75.8 yard per game). This suggests that air travel in general on Saturday could be dangerous, but does this data actually tell us anything? 

As we will see below, the Spartans will come into the game in Lincoln as a sizable underdog. But there is room to hope that Michigan State tightened a few lug nuts over the bye week and will come out an improved team. There is also the chance the Cornhuskers might not have as much air in their tires as some believe.

In this scenario, the Spartans could very well move to 4-1 overall with a much brighter outlook on the remainder of the season. The road to a bowl game would become much smoother, and the Green and White would be able to set their sights on some loftier season goals.

On the other hand, while a loss in Lincoln would be disappointing, it would represent a mere detour. Winning at Nebraska is a tall order and there are several much more winnable games left on the schedule. As long as the game is competitive, a loss would not be catastrophic.

This week's game will tell of a little bit more about the Spartans' ceiling this season, but the stakes are about as high as your average Sunday drive. I recommend just sitting back and enjoying the ride.

Michigan State Prediction

The Michigan State Spartans and Nebraska Cornhuskers have met 13 times in history. The Spartans lost the first two meetings in 1914 and 1920. Seventy five years later Michigan State was blown out in two consecutive years by the Tom Osborne-coached machine from Lincoln. 

The teams met again in the 2003 when the other Coach John Smith led the Spartans to defeat in the Alamo Bowl. 

But since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten in 2011, the series is tied at four games apiece. Michigan State is on a two-game win streak, thanks to two home wins in 2021 and 2023. 

Michigan State is just 2-6 against the spread since 2011 with one upset win in 2023 and one upset loss in Lincoln by a point in the playoff year of 2015.  The Spartans' only win in Lincoln came in the Rose Bowl year of 2013. 

Overall the Big Ten era of this series has been very competitive. So far the largest opining point spread has been seven points. The last five games and six of the eight in the series have been decided by five points or less.

This year the point spread opened with the home-town Huskers favored by 11.5 points, making it the largest spread in either direction since Nebraska joined the conference. Historically, this line suggests that there is only a 21% chance that the Spartans will get the win.

While I do believe that there is a path to an upset victory for the Spartans, the preponderance of data points in a different direction. My computer is not even as optimistic as Vegas. My computer's final score projection is Nebraska 37, Michigan State 23.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Six, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Six, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

A glance at Table 1 suggests that this could be one of the most boring weekends in recent Big Ten football history. Driving from East Lansing to Lincoln might actually be more compelling.

Five conference teams have a bye, including primary contenders No. 6 Oregon and No. 3 Indiana. This leaves six conference games and one non-conference game. Only one of the seven games opened with a spread under 10 points.

None of the conference games feature two teams at the top of my current conference leaderboard. No. 1 Ohio State (-24.5) host No. 68 Minnesota, No. 14 Penn State (-26.0) travels to No. 124 UCLA, and No. 12 Michigan (-16) hosts No. 52 Wisconsin. 

Those are all teams that will challenge for a playoff spot versus two teams that may struggle to make a bowl and one team that fired their coach after Week Three and might not win a game this year (UCLA).

No. 16 Illinois (-10) may have a slightly harder time on the road at No. 57 Purdue. Even the No. 99 Northwestern Wildcats (-12.5) found an opponent in Louisiana-Monroe that they are expected to beat easily.

The only game outside of Lincoln, Neb. that looks interesting is No. 43 Washington (-5.5) at No. 31 Maryland. Vegas has the Huskies favored by almost a touchdown against the undefeated Terrapins despite being 2,800 miles from home. 

This line does not make a lot of sense to me or to my computer. I like Maryland in an upset.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football scene in Week Six.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Six including my algorithms' projected scores.

After last weekend, the teams at the top of my SEC leaderboard are No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 5 Alabama, and No. 10 Mississippi. The Sooner and Rebels both have a bye in Week Six while Alabama has a potentially tricky matchup with No. 21 Vanderbilt (+13.5). The fact that the game is at home gives me more confidence that the Crimson Tide will get the win.

No. 11 Texas and No. 13 Texas A&M are still in the mix for the SEC Championship Game. The Longhorns have the challenge of a road trip to No. 50 Florida (+6.5) while the Aggies host Mississippi State (+13.5). 

After last week's loss at Alabama, No. 15 Georgia has a steeper hill to climb to reach the conference title game. That said, the Bulldogs are unlikely to be challenged at home by No. 64 Kentucky (+20.5).

In the Big 12, my computer still has high expectations for No. 19 Houston. The Cougars are underdogs at home against No. 18 Texas Tech (-10.5) in a battle of undefeated teams. Despite the large spread, my computer likes Houston in an upset.

Regardless of the results of the game in Houston, my computer has No. 9 BYU at the top of the Big 12 leaderboard. These other Cougars are not expected to be challenged at home against No. 87 West Virginia (+18.5).

No. 22 Iowa State is the only other undefeated Big 12 team. The Cyclones will try to stay that way on the road at No. 47 Cincinnati (+1.5).

In ACC action, No. 7 Miami appears to be pulling away from the field. However, the Hurricanes have a tough road test at No. 23 Florida State (+3.5). If Miami can get the win, the path to a 12-0 regular season looks very feasible. The biggest potential bumps in the road are a home game against No. 32 Louisville in two weeks and a road game at No. 62 SMU on Nov. 1.

Speaking of Louisville, the Cardinals current sit on the No. 3 position in my most recent ACC leaderboard. This week they host the team with the fourth best odds to reach the conference title game: No. 33 Virginia (+7). The winning team gets to stay on the lead lap of the conference race.

No. 38 Duke might be the biggest threat to Miami for the ACC crown. In order to stay in that position, the Blue Devils will need to survive the long trip to the west coast to face No. 76 California (+3.5) in a game that will kick off at 10:30 p.m. eastern time. 

In Group of Five action, several top contenders have the weekend off including top American Athletic Conference Contenders No. 35 North Texas, No. 27 East Carolina, No. 49 Tulane, and Conference USA favorite No. 48 Louisiana Tech.

The Group of Five playoff contenders that are in action are all at home and all expected to win fairly easily. No. 39 South Florida is a huge favorite against No. 135 Charlotte (+27), No. 44 Memphis should not face a major challenge against No. 100 Tulsa (+20.5), and No. 28 Old Dominion should get past No. 107 Coastal Carolina (+17).

While the Mountain West seems unlikely to generate a playoff team this year, there are two game involving teams from that conference that are worth keeping an eye on. No. 69 Boise State has a chance to get back into the conversation at No. 4 Notre Dame (-17.5). Current Mountain West favorite, No. 36 San Diego State, opens conference play versus No. 127 Colorado State (+6.5).

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Six.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Sic

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Six.

My computer is forecasting a total of nine upsets in Week Six, but only two of those games involve Power Four teams. Both games were also mentioned above. My computer is issuing an upset alert for Texas Tech (-10.5) and Washington (-5.5) at the hand of Houston and Maryland, respectively.

The FPI only offers a single upset prediction this week: New Mexico over San Jose State (-3). My algorithm also likes this upset pick, along with five other Group of Five contests with fairly small point spreads.

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.6 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 50 games is most likely. 

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Six. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My algorithm is offering seven picks against the spread including North Carolina (+13) to cover versus Clemson, Notre Dame (-17.5) to cover versus Boise State, and South Florida (-27) to cover versus Charlotte. 

My analysis of the FPI data does not reveal any recommended bets against the spread this week.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Five. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer highlights 13 point-total bets, two of which qualify as locks. My machines suggests taking the under in Oklahoma State at Arizona (56.5 points) and the over in the Air Force at Navy game (48.5).

In addition, my computer see more than 53.5 points being scored in Lincoln this weekend as the Spartans face the Cornhuskers.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. May the road rise with you. Until we meet again, enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.