Against All Odds, 2025 Week 12: Plans

Back in 2005, the indie rock group Death Cab For Cutie penned a lyric in their song "What Sarah Said," that has stuck with me over the years. The song opens with the line:

"And it came to me then that every plan is a tiny prayer to father time."

Going into the 2025 college football season, Michigan State fans were optimistic about the future. There was the belief that head Coach Jonathan Smith had a plan to rebuild the Spartan program. There was the hope that Year Two under the new staff would show significant improvement on the field. Many Spartan fans had plans to book a trip to a bowl game for the first time since the Peach Bowl in 2021.

But after last weekend's loss to Penn State, the Spartans have been eliminated from bowl contention. Michigan State has clinched a fourth consecutive losing season in East Lansing for the first time since the early 1980s. This particular prayer to father time appears to have gone unanswered.

The frustration from the fanbase over the current seven-game losing streak is significant. Some feel like nervous pacers in the hospital waiting room, praying for a miraculous recovery for a football program that appears to be on its deathbed. Other fans simply want to burn the house down and start over again.

As the end of the season looms, a difficult decision is on the horizon for Michigan State athletic director J Batt. The internal debate in his head circles around the concept of whether the glass is still half empty or half full. Are there roads still left in the shoes of the current Spartan staff? Or is sticking to the plan made by the previous athletic director simply telling Spartans fans to follow him into the dark?

The fate of the Jonathan Smith tenure in East Lansing will likely come down to Batt, and it is unclear which direction, if any, he is currently leaning. No matter what happens over the next two weeks, Batt needs to have a plan and he needs to execute it.

If Batt intends to keep Smith for another year, they need to work together on a plan to bolster the team in the offseason through the portal and possibly through some other changes to the staff.

If Batt plans to let Smith and company go at the end of the season or before, he needs to have already been working the back channels to identify and secure Smith's replacement. That plan needs to already be in motion, at least partially.

The worst case scenario would be for Smith to be fired with no clear candidates in mind to replace him. As the old saying goes, failing to plan is planning to fail. A coaching search is not simple matter. Remember that Jonathan Smith was Michigan State's Plan A candidate two years ago.

I believe that Batt, armed with far more information than any member of the fanbase, will ultimately make the "correct" decision, whatever decision that happens to be. But if he doesn't, I would not plan on a Spartan turn around happening any time soon.

Week 12 Betting Results

Let's take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 12 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 14 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes James Madison, Texas Tech, Washington, Miami, BYU, Utah, Georgia, and Missouri. Texas A&M was the only team that won but failed to cover the spread by 14 points or more.

A total of 13 teams were upset in Week 11, which just under the value of  14.6 that I predicted last week. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 12 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Based on the opening spread, the biggest upset of the week was Navy over South Florida (-10). Other impactful upsets on the board were Oklahoma over Alabama (-7.5), Arizona over Cincinnati (-6.5), Virginia over Duke (-6), and Clemson over Louisville (-3).

My algorithm went 3-2 (60%) for upsets on the week which brings the year to-date-performance to 37-48 (43.5%). ESPN's Football Power Index made only one pick this week and it was wrong. This makes the FPI's year-to-date record 17-29 (37%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 12.

There was just a single recommended pick on the board in Week 12 and my algorithm got it right. This brings the year-to-date performance to 31-29 (52%). The FPI held steady with a year-to-date tally of 20-16 (56%).

Considering all 58 games this weekend, my computer went 37-21 (64%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 315-310 (50.4%). The FPI also had a good week. It went 32-26 (55%) which brings the year-to-date performance to 298-237 (48%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 12.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 12.

My computer missed on both lock picks but got the sole other picks correct. 

As a result the year-to-date performance for the locks is now at 23-27 (46%). The overall performance for my set of recommended point-total bets is now to 77-85 (47.5%). It is generally not a good plan to count on my point total picks so far this year.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 12, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 12.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 12.

There were no upsets in Big Ten play this week, so the overall race remains largely unchanged. 

No. 2 Indiana and No. 1 Ohio State won easily, as expected, versus No. 77 Wisconsin and No. 70 UCLA, respectively. The Hoosiers now have over a 99% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, while Ohio State has odds of 82%. 

No. 4 Oregon took care of business versus No. 68 Minnesota and continues to have the best odds (12%) of any of the remaining Big Ten teams to find their way to the conference title game. Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon all remain in solid shape to make the college football playoffs.

In the other notable conference results, No. 14 USC came from behind to best No. 17 Iowa and No. 21 Michigan survived a tough rough test at No. 56 Northwestern. As a result, USC (4.6%) and Michigan (2.7%) are both still technically in the hunt for the Big Ten Championship Game.

Both Iowa and Minnesota had vanishingly small conference title odds coming into the weekend, but loses by both teams dropped those odds down to zero. 

Zero also happens to be the odds for Michigan State, Wisconsin and UCLA to make a bowl game. Those three teams join Purdue in the "making other plans for the holidays" club. No. 62 Maryland is now also one game away form bowl elimination after taking a loss this week to No. 18 Illinois.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

With the loss to Penn State, the Spartans do not need to worry about making plans for the postseason. Furthermore, the expected win total for the Spartans is now just at 3.58.

There is no need to visualize the Spartans odds in the next two games. My simulation projects that the point spread in next week's contest in Iowa City should be +18. The line actually opened with Iowa as 16.5-point favorites.

The game at Ford Field against Maryland continues to trend as close to a tossup. My simulation currently projects the Terrapins as 1.5-point favorites.

Based on these spreads, I give the Spartans a 6% chance to win out and get to a record of 5-7. I calculate a 45% chance of splitting the pair to finish at 4-8 and a 49% chance to loss out and finish at 3-9.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the battery of other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 12. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 12.

The biggest result of the weekend overall was No. 8 Oklahoma's upset win on the road over No. 9 Alabama. Ironically, Oklahoma was still eliminated from SEC Championship contention due to action elsewhere in the conference.

Specifically, No. 11 Texas A&M staged a furious comeback over No. 49 South Carolina, No. 12 Ole Miss beat No. 52 Florida, and No. 7 Georgia eliminated No. 16 Texas.

There are now only four teams alive for the SEC title game. Alabama (70%) has the best overall odds, but Georgia (64%) and Texas A&M (56%) are close behind. Ole Miss (10%) is more of a long shot.

In Big 12 action, No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 13 BYU both cruised to victory over No. 65 UCF and No. 51 TCU, respectively. The Red Raiders (98%) and Cougars (77%) are inching closer to a rematch in the conference championship game.

 

No. 6 Utah (16%) also notched a victory over No. 58 Baylor to stay in contention. The same is true for No. 50 Arizona State (7%), thanks to a close call against No. 69 West Virginia.

While the odds are certainly in the favor of Texas Tech and BYU, a loss by either team would likely result in either Utah or Arizona State sneaking into the conference title game. That said, No. 48 Cincinnati (2%), No. 32 Houston (0.9%), and No. 23 Arizona (0.2%) are also technically still alive in the Big 12 race.

The chase for the ACC crown continues to be messy. The biggest ACC result this week was No. 39 Virginia's upset win at No. 60 Duke. The win launched Virginia back to the top of my ACC leaderboard with a 57% chance to make the conference title game.

No. 55 Georgia Tech (54%) is right behind the Cavaliers after barely surviving a road test at No. 109 Boston College. No. 35 SMU (49%) was idle last week, but the Mustangs moved up in the standing thanks to the chaos around them.

Three other ACC teams remain in contention with just two weeks remaining. No. 37 Pittsburgh (18%) was defeated soundly by No. 5 Note Dame, but the Panthers are tied in the loss column at the top of the standings. 

No. 10 Miami (12%) is a game back, but still in the hunt thanks to a win over No. 61 North Carolina State. Even 5-5 Duke still has a 10% chance to reach the ACC title game. However, No. 47 Louisville is now out of the race after an upset loss to No. 54 Clemson.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the teams from the Group of Five which are vying for a automatic spot in the college football playoff.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 12.

No. 73 Navy's upset win over No. 29 South Florida was good new for No. 26 North Texas (which took care of No. 117 UAB) and No. 36 East Carolina (which beat No. 44 Memphis.)

North Texas (39%) has moved to the top of the Group of Five Leaderboard as the current favorite to win the America n Athletic Conference. If the Mean Green do not win the AAC, No. 34 James Madison (33%) is the next most likely option.

No. 53 Tulane (13%) still has an outside chance to win the AAC and make the playoff after this weekend's win over No. 102 Florida Atlantic. I am also still keep an eye on No. 24 San Diego State (5% playoff odds) in the Mountain West.

Playoff Projection

As for the overall playoff picture, the data given in the table above is a result of a algorithm that attempts to emulate the opinion of a committee. That is a good plan for most of the season, but ss the actual college football playoff rankings are released, we get a better sense of the real leanings of the playoff committee.

Based on all the data above, the Big Ten is almost sure to get Ohio State and Indiana into the field. Oregon also is in good shape if the Ducks win out.

It also looks like exactly five teams from the SEC are likely to make the field: Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma.

Texas Tech is highly likely to make the field along with the ACC Champion (Virginia or Georgia Tech) and the Group of Five Champion (North Texas or James Madison).

That leaves just one available slot. My math pretty heavily favors BYU as the most deserving team based on a strong strength of resume (No. 6). However, Notre Dame is ahead of BYU in the current standings and the Irish are unlikely to lose another game. 

BYU will likely need to upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game to make the playoffs, assuming no other major upset for the teams in the current top 10.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. You can plan on it.