2026 College Football Analysis, Part 6: The Group of Six

So far, our math-informed exploration of the 2026 college football season has taken us back to 2025, examined the Michigan State Spartans’ schedule, and delved into the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC races. Today’s stop takes us to the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision conferences.

In the 12-team College Football Playoff, the highest-ranked champion from the newly resurrected Pac-12, Mountain West, American Conference, Conference USA, Sun Belt, or Mid-American Conference will also earn a spot in the bracket.

But which team will it be? Let's pay a quick visit to each conference and once again make some math-driven predictions..

American Conference

The analysis of each of the so-called “Group of Six” conferences follows the same format as the Power Four breakdowns in the previous installments of this series.

Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the American Conference race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength of schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the conference championship game and the odds to make and win the 12-team playoff.

As in the last two parts of this series, the Most Likely Scenario is the one where the favorite teams win all games. The Disruptive Scenario modifies the Most Likely Scenario to inject a historically accurate number of road upsets into the overall schedule.

Table 1: Summary of the preseason projections for the American Conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season

The data in Table 1 suggest a very competitive race in the American this year. Seven total teams have at least an 8% chance to win the conference, and no team has odds better than 20%.

At the top of the charts in the preseason is No. 61 Navy (20% conference odds), followed by No. 68 Tulane (14.8%), and No. 71 Texas San Antonio (UTSA, 13.1%). These three teams appear to have the initial edge over possible spoilers No. 77 East Carolina (10.8%), No. 75 Memphis (9.8%), No. 76 South Florida (9.3%), and No. 79 Army (8.6%).

In the Most Likely Scenario, Navy, UTSA, and Army finish in a three-way tie for first place at 7-1. Navy loses a close game on the road to UTSA (-0.9), Army loses on the road to Memphis (-4.8), and UTSA drops a road game at Tulane (-4.5).

Like the ACC, the American Conference has also moved to using the College Football Playoff rankings and computer rankings as key tiebreakers, which would be in play in this scenario.

This makes the tiebreaker difficult to evaluate, but my analysis suggests Army could sneak past UTSA in the computer rankings if the Roadrunners were to lose a mid-September game at Texas State, as my model forecasts.

In this scenario, Navy is projected as an 8.7-point favorite to beat Army in the American Conference Championship Game, which would be played on Navy’s home field. The teams would then meet again the following week at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, for the traditional Army-Navy game.

In the Disruptive Scenario, almost everything is the same except that Army drops an early conference game on the road at Temple (+2.4). As a result, Navy and UTSA finish in a tie for first place, and Navy would most likely host the American Championship Game due to a projected higher computer/CFP ranking.

In this scenario, Navy is projected as a 6.5-point favorite to beat UTSA in the American Conference Championship Game.

Note that in all of the scenarios above, Tulane is left on the outside looking into the conference title game. Despite a conference schedule that numerically ranks as the third easiest in the league, the Green Wave draw tough road games at No. 79 Army (-0.5) and No. 76 South Florida (-1.3), both of which project as losses in my model.

Overall, there is a 34% chance that at least one American team makes the playoffs.

Pac-12

The Pac is back! Following the great exodus of West Coast teams to the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC over the past two seasons, the “Pac-12” has been reconstituted.

Joining the last two remaining original Pac-12 members, Oregon State and Washington State, are five former Mountain West teams: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State. Texas State also joins from the Sun Belt. The result is essentially a non-power conference with a legacy power conference name.

Table 2 below provides the same set of data for the Pac-12 as Table 1.

Table 2: Summary of the preseason projections for the Pac-12 conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season

Based on the preseason rankings, one Pac-12 team is the clear favorite from every point of view: Boise State.

The Broncos start the season with a consensus ranking of No. 35. The next-highest-ranked Pac-12 teams are No. 70 San Diego State and No. 73 Fresno State. Boise State also gets the advantage of drawing San Diego State at home.

The raw odds give the Broncos a 42.3% chance to win the conference. San Diego State has a 15.4% chance while Fresno State has a 13.7% chance. The math suggests that Texas State (8.6%) and Washington State (7.7%) are the most likely long shot contenders.

Boise State is projected to run the table in both the Most Likely Scenario and Disruptive Scenario. The only games where the Broncos are projected to be less than a 10-point favorite are the road games at Fresno State (+5.6) and at Washington State (+9.4).

In all cases, San Diego State is the most likely team to face Boise State in the Pac-12 title game. Outside of the road trip to Boise, the Aztecs’ two conference road games are at Oregon State (+5.6) and Colorado State (+6.5), which project as the two weakest teams in the conference.

Boise State projects to be a 12-point favorite over San Diego State in Boise in this hypothetical Pac-12 Championship Game scenario.

Overall, there is a 32% chance that at least one Pac-12 team makes the playoffs.

Mountain West

Table 3 below provides the same set of data for the Mountain West as Table 1.

Table 3: Summary of the preseason projections for the Mountain West conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

Despite losing five top teams to the new Pac-12, the Mountain West bolstered its membership by adding Northern Illinois from the MAC, UTEP from Conference USA, and North Dakota State from the FCS ranks.

The new Mountain West remains a relatively strong Group of Six conference. The conference's projected top two teams, No. 63 UNLV and No. 60 New Mexico, would also be the two highest ranked teams in the Sun Belt, MAC, and Conference USA.

But there is a notable drop-off after the Rebels and Lobos, which makes projecting the conference title game relatively straightforward. UNLV (26.9%) and New Mexico (24.1%) have a significant advantage in the raw odds to win the Mountain West title. The three potential spoilers are No. 84 Hawaii (14.9%), No. 85 Air Force (13.5%), and No. 87 North Dakota State (12.3%).

In the Most Likely Scenario, New Mexico goes 8-0 in conference play thanks to the second-easiest conference schedule, including a home game against UNLV (+2). With a conference record of 7-1, UNLV would claim a spot in the conference title game, but New Mexico would get the honor of hosting.

If the two teams were to meet on a neutral field, UNLV would be a slight favorite. But in a true road game, New Mexico would be expected to claim the Mountain West crown.

In the Disruptive Scenario, New Mexico suffers an upset loss at Hawaii (+1), which forces a three-way tie for first place. In this case, there is no clear head-to-head winner, so the tiebreaker will revert to computer metrics and/or the College Football Playoff rankings. 

My analysis of the likely final computer rankings suggests UNLV would claim the No. 1 seed and would face No. 2 New Mexico in Las Vegas. The Rebels are projected to be a 5-point favorite in this scenario, which means that UNLV is my official pick to win the Mountain West.

Overall, there is an 18% chance that at least one Mountain West team makes the playoffs.

Sun Belt Conference

Table 4 below provides the same set of data for the Sun Belt as Table 1.

Table 4: Summary of the preseason projections for the Sun Belt Conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

The Sun Belt remains the only conference with the traditional two-division configuration. In the East Division, No. 74 James Madison (33%) has the best odds to win the division, followed by No. 88 Old Dominion (24.7%) and No. 95 Marshall (16.4%).

In the West Division, No. 94 Troy (26%) holds a narrow lead in raw odds over No. 102 Louisiana (24.9%). No. 105 Arkansas State (18.8%) and No. 106 Louisiana Tech (16%) are the most likely dark horse contenders.

In the Most Likely Scenario, James Madison goes undefeated in conference play to win the East. In the West, Louisiana finishes at 7-1 to win the division.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have the distinct advantage of hosting both Troy (+1.2) and Arkansas State (+4.6). Louisiana only projects to be an underdog at Louisiana Tech (-2.3). Meanwhile, division foe Troy draws James Madison (-9.6) and Arkansas State (-0.2) on the road in addition to the projected road loss at Louisiana.

In this scenario, James Madison would host the Sun Belt Championship Game against Louisiana where the Dukes project to be 12-point favorites.

In the Disruptive Scenario, the key difference is that Old Dominion beats James Madison (-1.1) at home to secure the tiebreaker in the eventual tie with the Dukes for first place. This also assumes that Old Dominion gets upset on the road at Louisiana Tech (+1.9).

In this case, Old Dominion would host the Sun Belt title game, where the Monarchs would be favored by 7.9 points over Louisiana. Therefore, Old Dominion is my official pick to win the Sun Belt Conference.

Overall, there is a 10% chance that at least one Sun Belt team makes the playoffs.

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

The summary of the simulation result for the MAC is shown below in Table 5.

Table 5: Summary of the preseason projections for the Mid-American Conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

This year, the MAC looks from here to be a three-team race between No. 82 Western Michigan (25% conference odds), No. 89 Miami of Ohio (21%), and No. 93 Toledo (18.8%).

In the Most Likely Scenario, Western Michigan beats Miami of Ohio (+5.7) at home, but drops a close game on the road to Toledo (+0.4). The Rockets proceed to win the rest of their games to claim the conference No. 1 seed. 

Western Michigan would claim the No. 2 seed due to a head-to-head victory over Miami. The MAC Championship Game is played at neutral Ford Field in Detroit, where the Broncos project as a 3-point favorite.

In the Disruptive Scenario, the key difference is that Toledo loses the final game of the regular season at Ohio (+1.5), which forces a three-way tie with Western Michigan and Miami. 

This year, the MAC is also using computer rankings as a tiebreaker, and my analysis would place Western Michigan against Miami of Ohio in this scenario, where the Broncos would project to be a 2-point favorite.

As a result, Western Michigan is my pick to win the MAC.

Overall, there is a 6.8% chance that at least one MAC team makes the playoffs.

Conference USA

The summary of the simulation results for Conference USA is shown below in Table 6.

Table 6: Summary of the preseason projections for Conference USA, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

Of the six non-power conferences, Conference USA is generally considered the weakest in 2026.

No. 90 Western Kentucky (24.6%) has the best preseason odds to win the conference, followed by No. 91 Liberty. The group of three most likely sleeper contenders consists of No. 98 Jacksonville State (16.2%), No. 107 Kennesaw State (12.3%), and No. 108 Delaware (11.1%).

Liberty holds the important advantage of hosting Western Kentucky. The teams appear evenly matched, which translates into Liberty being a 3.3-point favorite at home. The two teams are projected to be favored in all other conference games.

As a result, in the Most Likely Scenario, Liberty goes 8-0 in conference play while Western Kentucky goes 7-1. Due to the superior conference win percentage, the Flames would host the Conference USA Championship Game where they would once again be 3.3-point favorites over the Hilltoppers. 

But in the Disruptive Scenario, Liberty drops a pair of road games at Delaware (+1.7) and Kennesaw State (+1.4), while Western Kentucky again finishes at 7-1 to claim the No. 1 seed. In this scenario, Kennesaw State finishes in a tie with Liberty for second place at 6-2 and wins the tiebreaker due to a head-to-head victory.

But Kennesaw State projects as an 8.9-point underdog in this hypothetical title game. So, Western Kentucky is my official pick to win Conference USA.

Overall, there is a 5.1% chance that at least one Conference USA team makes the playoffs.

Group of Six Playoff Outlook

Now that we have reviewed and made selections for each Group of Six conference, Table 7 below summarizes the 25 teams from this group that are most likely to earn the fifth automatic playoff bid. Table 7 also gives the most significant non-conference game for each team. An upset win in the non-conference would certainly bolster the playoff résumé of any of the teams listed below.

Table 7: Overview of the playoff odds and marquee non-conference games for the 25 Group of Six teams most likely to make the playoff.

Based on the picks above, the Selection Committee would need to choose between:

• Boise State (12-1) with a loss at No. 2 Oregon and a best win over No. 70 San Diego State.
• Navy (11-2) with losses vs. No. 3 Notre Dame and at No. 71 UTSA, plus an avenging best win over UTSA in the conference championship game.
• UNLV (12-1) with a loss at No. 69 New Mexico and a best win over No. 55 California.
• Old Dominion (11-2) with losses at No. 31 Virginia Tech and at No. 106 Louisiana Tech and a best win over No. 74 James Madison.
• Western Michigan (10-3) with losses at No. 15 Michigan, at No. 35 Boise State, and at No. 93 Toledo and a pair of best wins over Miami of Ohio.
• Western Kentucky (10-3) with losses at No. 5 Georgia, at No. 6 Indiana, and at No. 91 Liberty and a best win over No. 107 Kennesaw State.

On paper, Boise State is the strongest team on this list and would likely end the season as the highest-ranked Group of Six team if its only loss is to Oregon. As Table 7 suggests, Boise State (17.1%) has by far the best odds to earn a playoff bid.

UNLV (6.1%) could make a compelling case with a single loss and a win over an ACC team, even if California does not have a great year. The Rebels also have the best odds of any Group of Six team to go undefeated in the regular season (6.4%).

Navy has the second-best odds to make the playoffs (7.0%), but the Midshipmen would likely need to run the table in conference play to beat out the eventual Pac-12 and Mountain West champion.

Outside of the picks from my disruptive simulation, a few potential Group of Six sleepers stick out in Table 7. 

No. 68 Tulane plays both No. 50 Duke (-8.2) and No. 36 Kansas State (-11.2) on the road in the first three weeks of the season. If the Green Wave can pull at least one upset in that pair of games and avoid a conference road upset, Tulane could make an interesting case for the playoff bid.

Similarly, if San Diego State can pull an upset in Week 2 at UCLA (-9.9) and use that momentum to win the Pac-12, the Aztecs would have a similarly strong playoff case.

At this point in our preseason tour of the college football landscape, we have explored the endgame scenarios in all ten FBS conferences. For the next stop on our journey, it will be time to put the pieces together and make some predictions regarding the 12-team playoff. Stay tuned.