Against All Odds, 2026 Week 2: Rise

At halftime Saturday, there was cause for concern in the stands and on the sideline at Spartan Stadium. Visiting Eastern Michigan had just marched 78 yards on 13 plays, mostly on the ground, to cut Michigan State’s lead to seven.

Despite that lead, Eastern Michigan had outgained Michigan State 162-143 and held the ball for 6 1/2 minutes longer. For the second time in two weeks, the Spartans were struggling to put away a Mid-American Conference opponent.

Entering the season, fans did not know what to expect from the first year of the Pat Fitzgerald era in East Lansing. Still and moving images available to the public during the offseason had been limited. The Week 1 performance was fine, but hardly inspiring. Seven quarters into a new era of Spartan football, doubt was creeping in, and the defense was the immediate concern.

“There was a lot of not very happy people on our defensive headphones and defensive staff when we went in at halftime,” Fitzgerald said.

There were plenty of unhappy people in the stands and in their living rooms, too.

But the MSU staff turned that anger into energy, fueling a dominant second-half performance. The Spartans outgained the Eagles 329-57 after halftime and outscored them 21-0.

It was the type of performance Spartan fans have awaited for at least a year. It was the first real sign that Michigan State’s program may be on the rise.

Yes, it was only one half against a lower-level MAC opponent. Still, the energy and execution with which the Spartans have responded after halftime in both games are noticeable.

The team’s entire vibe feels different. It also feels familiar. It feels like Spartan football again. Bumps along the road are inevitable, and one very likely awaits next week in South Bend.

I could be wrong, but the Spartans’ trajectory appears to be pointing up. Then again, I could be right.

Week 2 Betting Results

Now it is time to review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For more on how to read it, see last week’s edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 2 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Fifteen teams overachieved in Week 2, including Mississippi State, Utah, Nebraska, Toledo, and Alabama. Seven teams notably underachieved but still won, including Washington, Texas Tech, and Ole Miss.

Nine favorites lost outright in Week 2. That total does not include Northern Illinois and Nevada, which lost to FCS opponents Illinois State and Montana State, respectively, because both FBS teams opened as underdogs.

Table 1 summarizes those nine upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Week 2 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week's upset projections.

The week’s biggest upset was Oklahoma State (+21.5) over Oregon, making the Ducks the second Big Ten team this season to lose as a favorite of more than 20 points. Other notable upsets included Duke over Illinois, Michigan over Oklahoma, and Texas over Ohio State.

My algorithm had an OK week, going 3-5 (37.5%). That brought its season record to 4-7 (36%), slightly below my 40% benchmark for upset picks.

FPI went 1-1 (50%) on upset picks, bringing its season record to 1-3 (25%). SP+ endured a miserable 0-6 week, dropping its season tally to 1-7 (12.5%).

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread. 

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 2 picks against the opening spread.

It was a tough week for the machines against the spread. They could have been right, but they were far more often wrong.

My computer was a miserable 3-12 (20%), although six misses came by fewer than four points. FPI was better at 4-5 (44%), while SP+ was also terrible at 4-12 (25%).

Across all 86 games, my algorithm went 36-50 (42%) ATS, FPI went 45-41 (52%), and SP+ went 34-52 (40%). My computer and SP+ are below .500 for the season, while FPI is barely above water.

Table 3 shows the Week 2 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 2 point-total wagers

The point-total results were the week’s lone betting bright spot. My computer went 8-5 (61.5%), lifting its season record to 17-14 (55%).

My analysis of SP+ data did not generate any over/under bets this weekend, so that total remains at 5-2 (62.5%) on the year.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 2, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

It was a rough week for the Big Ten, and the conference’s public image likely took a hit. The conference went 6-11 ATS, and one cover came from Purdue merely losing by fewer points than expected at home against Wake Forest.

As noted above, Illinois, Oregon, and Ohio State suffered upset losses. Minnesota also lost by 25 at home to Mississippi State despite entering as only a 1.5-point underdog.

Even after those results, Ohio State edged up to No. 2 in my power poll and still owns the conference’s best title odds at 28%. A one-point road loss to a top-five opponent barely hurts a team’s metrics.

No. 7 Penn State (19%) and No. 8 Indiana (19%) are the likeliest challengers.

No. 11 USC has the next-best odds at 8%. No. 21 UCLA, No. 18 Iowa, and No. 15 Michigan each sit near 5%.

Following its surprising win over Oklahoma, Michigan jumped 19 spots and returned to my computer’s top 15. 

Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans

Michigan State pulled away from Eastern Michigan and covered by double digits. As a result, the Spartans climbed 22 spots to No. 45 in my power poll.

The Spartans’ expected win total has risen to 6.7, corresponding to a 71% chance of reaching six wins and qualifying for their first bowl game since 2021.

I now give MSU a 1.3% chance to win the Big Ten and a 4.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff.

The Spartans’ strong second half against the Eagles brightened the prospects of the Green and White. For the second week in a row, several future opponents also struggled.

Illinois and Oregon were upset, while Wisconsin, Washington, and Rutgers failed to cover.

Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for Michigan State’s remaining 10 games, alongside the preseason projections for comparison.

The model now favors Michigan State in five of its remaining 10 games: at Wisconsin, Illinois, at Northwestern, Washington, and at Rutgers. The home game against Nebraska, with MSU projected at -1, is essentially a toss-up. Even the Oregon game, projected at -2.5, suddenly looks winnable.

The Spartans will be a substantial underdog next weekend at Notre Dame. After routing Rice 52-0, the Fighting Irish sit at No. 1 in my power poll.

Notre Dame appears to have opened as a 29.5-point favorite, more than a touchdown above my model’s projection. Either way, next week’s road will be difficult.

Beyond South Bend, Michigan State is projected as a clear underdog only at UCLA (-8.5) and Michigan (-8).

The simulation now gives Michigan State nearly a 20% chance to finish at least 9-3 and a 35% chance to finish 8-4 or better.

National Overview

Let’s take a quick spin around the country.

In the SEC, No. 3 Texas posted the season’s most impressive win so far, rallying past No. 2 Ohio State. My computer, however, viewed the one-point home victory as merely meeting expectations in a top-five matchup.

Fair or not, my algorithm was slightly more impressed by No. 5 Alabama’s 28-point road win at Kentucky. The Crimson Tide now lead my SEC board with a 19.6% chance to win the conference.

Texas is second at 19.4%, with No. 6 LSU (17.3%) and No. 4 Texas A&M (16.3%) also on the lead lap. All four SEC teams rank in this week’s top six.

In the Big 12, it remains too early to read much into the results, but that never stops my computer from drawing conclusions.

Preseason favorite Texas Tech delivered a second lackluster performance against a lower-level opponent, beating Oregon State by 11 on the road. The Red Raiders fell to No. 30 in my power rankings and fourth on my Big 12 board, with an 11% conference-title chance.

The Big 12 teams on the rise are No. 17 Baylor (17.8% conference odds), No. 23 Kansas State (14.4%), and No. 27 Utah (16.9%). Utah routed Arkansas, and Kansas State beat Washington State by 27.

Baylor lost to Auburn in Week 1, but the computer liked its 41-point win over Prairie View A&M. Auburn’s rout of Southern Miss also strengthened Baylor’s résumé.

The tune is similar in the ACC, where my computer is more impressed by No. 9 Virginia’s ability to overwhelm overmatched teams than by the ability of No. 10 Miami and No. 14 SMU to overwhelm other overmatched teams.

Virginia leads my ACC odds at 25.5%, followed by Miami (20.5%) and SMU (17.8%).

It is early, and these trends could be wrong. They also could be right.

No. 32 Boise State handled No. 67 Memphis at home in the weekend’s marquee Group of Six matchup. My computer, however, was more impressed by No. 36 North Dakota State’s road victory over No. 47 Air Force.

North Dakota State has risen to the top of my Group of Five board with a 23% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Boise State (13%) remains second, 10 percentage points behind the Bison.

Rounding out the top five are No. 41 North Texas (11%), coming off an upset and blowout of UNLV; No. 59 South Florida (7%), which upset Army; and No. 61 New Mexico (6%), which scored 70 against Mercyhurst.

Against all odds, we have reached the end of the road. As the Spartans prepare to face the Irish, I will leave you with a familiar blessing.

May the road rise to meet you. May the wind be always at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face, and may the rains fall softly upon your fields until we meet again later this week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.