Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

Throughout the Big Ten basketball season. I have historically conducted an analysis on the results of a series simulations which provides various odds regarding the trajectory of the Michigan State men's basketball season and the Big Ten race as a whole.  In addition, I have provided additional analysis of Michigan State and the Big Ten race using Kenpom efficiency data compared to historical data and the set of statistics known as the "four factors of basketball success." As the season goes on, the data changes almost daily. This post is meant to be a one-stop shop for the most updated data on the Big Ten race. In addition, this post will contain a explanation of how to read each table or figure. Analysis of the data will be done elsewhere. This post contains "just the facts." Last Update: Jan. 13, 2025 Percentage of Big Ten games completed: 48 of 180 games (27%) Enhanced Big Ten Standings Table 1:  Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 13, 2025. Table 1 below ...

On Thursday night, the Michigan State Spartans sailed to another double-digit win over Big Ten newcomers the Washington Huskies to improve their record to 13-2 overall and 4-0 in the conference. As a result, the Spartans have rejoined the Michigan Wolverines in a tie on the top of the conference. In other Big Ten action, it was a very good week for Illinois, Oregon, Wisconsin and especially Michigan. All four teams picked up big wins including a 39-point win by Illinois over Penn State, an 19-point win by Michigan at UCLA, a 31-point win by Wisconsin over Iowa, and a two-point victory by Oregon at Ohio State On the other hand, UCLA picked up back-to-back loses to at Nebraska and versus Michigan. As a result, the updated Big Ten leaderboard is shown below in Table 1. Table 1:  Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 10, 2025. Michigan now has the best odds to win the conference at 45% with the Fighting Illini...

Two weeks ago, I presented my two-part preview of the Big Ten basketball season, including a ton of data about how the season is likely to play out. In just this short period of time, already a lot has changed. Most importantly, the Michigan State Spartans traveled to Columbus last Friday and earned a hard-fought win over the Ohio State Buckeyes, 69-62. The Spartans are now 3-0 in conference play, 12-2 overall, and in the midst of a seven-game win streak. Michigan State is tied at the top of the conference with the Michigan Wolverines. Since Christmas, a lot of the data related to the conference race has shifted. For today's update, let us focus on the updated odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title as shown below in Table 1. Table 1: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 6, 2025. The Spartans have moved up six-and-a-half percentage points and one spot on the leaderboard since Christmas Eve....

At first glance, the Michigan State Men's Basketball team had a good day on Monday. The Spartans beat the Western Michigan Broncos 80-62 in the final game of both the non-conference season and the calendar year. The No. 18 ranked Spartans are off to an 11-2 start for the first time since 2022. Most experts project that Michigan State is positioned to contend for a Big Ten title and to earn its best NCAA Tournament seed since before COVID.  At the same time, however, the Spartans' performance left a little bit to be desired. Michigan State was sloppy with the ball in committing 17 turnovers. The Spartans gave up 11 offensive rebound and allowed the Broncos to go on a 10-0 run right out of halftime. Michigan State also missed seven layups and shot just 6-for-20 (30%) from deep. While the Green and White won by 18 points, the point spread was over 25 points. Based on all of these measures, it was a lackluster performance. Coach Tom Izzo seemed to agree. "It seemed like we wer...

The 2024-25 college basketball season is underway and most teams in the newly expanded coast-to-coast Big Ten just wrapped play prior to the holidays. In early December each team completed one home and one road game in conference play. Throughout the Michigan State football season, I provided bi-weekly updates on the odds of various season outcomes. I utilized my own power rankings and a set of simulation and other analytical tools to generate these odds. My process for college basketball is very similar. The major difference is that I prefer to use efficiency metrics, specifically those tabulated by Ken Pomeroy ("Kenpom") to estimate point spreads and odds. These data correlate well to point spreads and point spreads correlate to actual game results. There is no reason for me to recreate the wheel. I have recently performed my first simulation of the 2024-25 Big Ten season using the updated Kenpom efficiency data through December 22. The results of the simulation and other c...