In a world fraught with conflict and uncertainty, two proud football teams will meet on the gridiron Saturday night to once again decide which University will get bragging rights for the next 12 months. The winner will get a cool wooden statue of a lumberjack. The coach of the winning team will also get to enjoy a full week of not getting asked if he is getting fired. Probably. That's right. It's Michigan Week. That special time every fall in the Great Lakes State that pits neighbor against neighbor, brother against brother, green versus blue, Spartans versus Wolverines. It's an all-out civil war. But this year both teams find themselves dealing with different kinds of adversity. The Spartans (3-4) are struggling with their identify in the midst of a four-game losing streak and a three-year streak with no bowl game. Meanwhile, the Wolverines' (5-2) unrealistic dreams for a Big Ten title and playoff berth are fading. Michigan continues to grapples with the challenges o...
If I am being completely honest, I am confused by many of the thing that I have read and seen about Michigan State Football over the past few weeks. The results on the field have been frustrating and disappointing so far this season. But the sad truth is that the results are also not that surprising. In case you have forgotten, allow me to refresh your memory about some of the details from my preseason analysis back in August The experts in Las Vegas set the Spartans' regular win total over/under at 5.5 wins. My simulation of the full season gave a value of 5.26 win. Additional calculation revealed that Michigan State had a 43% chance to reach a bowl game. The odds for a 3-9 record or worse were 21%. The odds for a 4-8 record or worse were 38%. After seven games, the expected win total was 3.66. These calculations tacitly assumed that the Spartans would have neutral luck both on the field and with injuries. It can be argued that a few teams on the Michigan State schedule including...