Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from May, 2019

Stats-Based Bracket Prediction: A Retrospective

A few days after Selection Sunday this year, I posted a very detailed analysis of the 2019 NCAA Men's basketball bracket, including several predictions.  I made my picks this year based on an analysis of Kenpom efficiency data, as well as on historical upset trends. I entered a few different on-line pools using slightly different versions, and I wound up winning each pool going away. Among other things, I corrected predicted Auburn to win the Midwest Region, and I correctly predicted Virginia was going to beat Texas Tech in the Final.  I had never before done such a through analysis of the tournament, and the next obvious question was: did I just get lucky this year, or is this a method that can be used in the future, with some expectation of success? In the weeks since the tournament ended, I have done an even deeper dive into the data, and I think I have the answer, which is "Yes... and No." First off, I should say a little about the methodology that I used this yea