In part one of this year's math-based preseason analysis of the college football season, we looked back at the 2025 season. Through that analysis, we learned about the historical accuracy of preseason polls (plus-or-minus 25 positions) and regular season win totals (plus-or-minus 2.2 wins). We also explored the impact of changes in ability, schedule, and luck. Now it is time to shift focus to the 2026 season. Over the years, I have developed and refined a way to simulate the entire college football season using schedule information and preseason rankings as the only inputs. I will soon go through the full details of what I learned from this exercise. For today, I will focus exclusively on what my analysis says about the Michigan State Spartans. We will take a close look at the Spartans' 2026 schedule from three different points of view. Opponent Overview The best place to start this analysis is with the simulation's inputs. Figure 1 below summarizes the preseason rankings (...
It is a new dawn and a new day for Michigan State football. First-year head coach Pat Fitzgerald attended Big Ten Football Media Days this week wearing green and white for the first time. In a little over a month, the latest iteration of Spartan football will take to the field. Only time will tell whether the new regime can elevate the Spartans back toward their previous heights. In the meantime, it is time to kick off my annual preview of the upcoming college football season. Over the past several years, I have developed and refined a set of mathematical tools to better understand the sport. With the 2026 season approaching, it is time to open the analytical toolbox and see what we can learn. Before we dive into the upcoming season for the Michigan State Spartans and beyond, it will be helpful to review the results of the past season. General Lessons from the Past During the summer, college football fans and analysts have limited information. Still, there is no shortage of predictions...