Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

In part one of this year's math-based preseason analysis of the college football season, we looked back at the 2025 season. Through that analysis, we learned about the historical accuracy of preseason polls (plus-or-minus 25 positions) and regular season win totals (plus-or-minus 2.2 wins). We also explored the impact of changes in ability, schedule, and luck. Now it is time to shift focus to the 2026 season. Over the years, I have developed and refined a way to simulate the entire college football season using schedule information and preseason rankings as the only inputs. I will soon go through the full details of what I learned from this exercise. For today, I will focus exclusively on what my analysis says about the Michigan State Spartans. We will take a close look at the Spartans' 2026 schedule from three different points of view. Opponent Overview The best place to start this analysis is with the simulation's inputs. Figure 1 below summarizes the preseason rankings (...

It is a new dawn and a new day for Michigan State football. First-year head coach Pat Fitzgerald attended Big Ten Football Media Days this week wearing green and white for the first time. In a little over a month, the latest iteration of Spartan football will take to the field. Only time will tell whether the new regime can elevate the Spartans back toward their previous heights. In the meantime, it is time to kick off my annual preview of the upcoming college football season. Over the past several years, I have developed and refined a set of mathematical tools to better understand the sport. With the 2026 season approaching, it is time to open the analytical toolbox and see what we can learn. Before we dive into the upcoming season for the Michigan State Spartans and beyond, it will be helpful to review the results of the past season. General Lessons from the Past During the summer, college football fans and analysts have limited information. Still, there is no shortage of predictions...

In the game of football on the offensive side of the ball, skill players such as quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers are often the ones who make the highlight reels. But n the background of almost all explosive plays in a offensive lineman who made a key block or picked up a blitzing defender. The five men who make up the offensive line form the backbone of all successful offenses. Issues at just one of the five positions can turn a very good offensive into a below-average one. Unfortunately, offensive line play in East Lansing has not been a strength for most of the last decade. In 2025, the Spartans averaged just 122.8 rushing yards per game and 3.78 yards per carry. Both values ranked outside of the top 100 of 134 Division I teams.  In fact, Michigan State has only average over 130 yards per game or over 4.0 yards per carry once since 2017 and that was in 2021 when future Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, Jr. carried the rock for the green and white. New head coach Pat ...

It has been over a month since Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans were eliminated from the NCAA Tournament by the UConn Huskies in the Sweet 16. It will also be approximately six months before the next year's team takes to the court again.  With the commitment of Anton Bonke on April 22 and the departure of guard Divine Ugochukwu via the transfer portal, it will likely be a quiet summer in East Lansing on the basketball front. But one thing that Spartan fans can count on is that one of the best coaches in the history of the game will once again be patrolling the sidelines next season in the Breslin center. As summer beckons, it is a good time to look back and reflect on the amazing career, so far, of Tom Izzo. Big Ten Dominance Tom Izzo is currently the winningest coach in the history of the Big Ten conference. He will likely hold onto this title for the foreseeable future. As of the end of the 2026 season, he currently holds the record for both total wins at a Big Ten s...