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Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 5: Into the Wild

Just a few weeks ago, Michigan State’s season seemed young and full of optimism. Even after a closer-than-expected loss at Notre Dame in Week 3, the future in East Lansing looked bright. Then came a wild, dispiriting home loss to Nebraska. Add the news that starting running back Cam Edwards, Michigan State’s best offensive weapon, will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Spartan Nation has been left disenchanted. At times like these, it can help to pause, reflect, and get away from it all. Maybe the answer is to pack some gear into a magic bus and set forth for the wilds to the north and west. That is where the Spartans are headed this week: into the wilds of Camp Randall to face a pack of ill-tempered members of the weasel family. A few weeks ago, this matchup looked manageable. After all, Michigan State gave Notre Dame a better fight than Wisconsin did when those teams met in Week 1. But last week, the Badgers mounted a frantic comeback in State College and took down ...
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Against All Odds, 2026 Week 4: Stop Me if You Think You've Heard This One Before

Upon reflection, Michigan State’s 17-point loss to Nebraska on Saturday evening gave me a distinct feeling of déjà vu. I entered the game optimistic that the Green and White could keep it competitive and give themselves a solid chance to win. I exited the stadium feeling a bit depressed. This Michigan State team has little margin for error. To compete with even a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team, the Spartans must be sharp and must win most of the 50-50 plays. Quite the opposite happened. Instead, the Spartans were once again hampered by bad bounces, including an 11-yard forward fumble that gave Nebraska a first down, momentum-killing questionable calls, turnovers, and another wave of injuries to key players. All four factors mattered, and together they turned what could, or perhaps should, have been a competitive game into a borderline blowout at home. But we have all been down this road before. Over the past decade, Michigan State has found a nearly infinite number of strange ways to ...
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Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 4: High Fructose

The first few weeks of the college football season can be a time of excess. Although we are already a quarter of the way through the season, a few teams have enjoyed a steady diet of cupcakes. For many teams, margins of victory have been high, players from deep on the bench have seen the field, and each weekend has brought the sweet feeling of a blowout victory. In many cases, however, those wins have provided little more than empty calories. The Michigan State Spartans will face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday. So far, the Huskers' résumé has the aftertaste of high-fructose syrup. Nebraska has three home wins against Ohio, Bowling Green, and North Dakota by a combined score of 139-35. However, the better of the two MAC teams, Ohio, barely cracks the top 100 of my latest power poll, and North Dakota plays in the FCS. The only FBS win by any Nebraska opponent this season is Ohio's four-overtime victory over Jacksonville State, which moved up from the FCS only four seasons a...
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Against All Odds, 2026 Week 3: Glasses in Various Stages of Fullness

Saturday night’s result left me conflicted. Michigan State went on the road to face No. 3 Notre Dame and lost by double digits. A little more than 10 years ago, that would have felt like a tremendous opportunity lost. Plenty has changed over the past decade. The Spartans have had four head coaches and made only four bowl appearances during that span. The program has fallen on hard times, and Saturday’s loss was another reminder that Michigan State still does not measure up to the nation’s best teams. Despite those realities, I could not help feeling encouraged by the performance. The Spartans entered as nearly 30-point underdogs but lost by 17. Early in the fourth quarter, Michigan State had the ball near midfield, trailing 20-10 and driving with a chance to make it a one-score game. That represents significant improvement from the last several times Michigan State faced elite competition. Consider the Spartans’ deficits after three quarters: 2025 vs. No. 3 Indiana: 35-10 2024 vs. No. ...
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Bad Betting Advice, Week 3: Four Leaf Clover

As the Michigan State football team prepares to face Notre Dame's shamrock-loving Fighting Irish, Spartans fans will likely see more than a few references to four-leaf clovers this weekend. My model currently ranks Michigan State No. 46 and Notre Dame No. 1 in my latest power poll. As a result, the Spartans' chances of leaving South Bend with a victory are slim. Still, the four-leaf clover offers a useful framework for imagining how an upset might happen. The four leaves of a four-leaf clover traditionally represent faith, hope, love, and luck. If the Spartans are to pull off this upset, they will likely need all four. The first leaf represents faith, which in this case means trust in brighter days. With the arrival of new coach Pat Fitzgerald and generally positive results through two weeks, Spartans fans have reason to believe better days are on the horizon. The second leaf represents hope, or optimism and the courage to look forward. If the Spartans are to have a chance Satu...
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