Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

In the previous installment of this series, the numbers established the shape of the 2026 Big Ten race. Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana sit at the top of the projected standings, but the path to Indianapolis is unlikely to be orderly. The next step is to move beyond the raw odds and examine the specific games, tiebreaker scenarios, and upset paths that could determine which two teams actually reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Big Ten Championship Scenarios In Part 3 of this series, I introduced a table summarizing my preseason simulation of the Big Ten race. It includes each team’s consensus preseason ranking, expected wins, two projected final records, strength of schedule, and odds to reach and win both the Big Ten Championship Game and the 12-team College Football Playoff. For reference, that table is duplicated below. Table 1:   Summary of the preseason projections for the Big Ten conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulatio...

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have explored the historical accuracy of preseason rankings, looked back at last season, and mapped the potential paths for the 2026 Michigan State Spartans. Today, the focus shifts to the Big Ten race. Strength of Schedule The first piece of the puzzle is relative strength of schedule. Figure 1 summarizes my calculations for the overall schedules of all 18 Big Ten teams. Figure 1: Overall strengths of schedule for the 2026 Big Ten conference. The overall FBS rank is shown in each bar. There are several ways to calculate strength of schedule. My approach starts with preseason power ratings, which I use to generate projected point spreads for every potential college football matchup. I then calculate how many games a reference, borderline Top 25 team would be expected to win against each schedule. For example, against Michigan State's schedule, that reference team would have an expected win total of 7.65 games, or a ...

In part one of this year's math-based preseason analysis of the college football season, we looked back at the 2025 season. Through that analysis, we learned about the historical accuracy of preseason polls (plus-or-minus 25 positions) and regular season win totals (plus-or-minus 2.2 wins). We also explored the impact of changes in ability, schedule, and luck. Now it is time to shift focus to the 2026 season. Over the years, I have developed and refined a way to simulate the entire college football season using schedule information and preseason rankings as the only inputs. I will soon go through the full details of what I learned from this exercise. For today, I will focus exclusively on what my analysis says about the Michigan State Spartans. We will take a close look at the Spartans' 2026 schedule from three different points of view. Opponent Overview The best place to start this analysis is with the simulation's inputs. Figure 1 below summarizes the preseason rankings (...

It is a new dawn and a new day for Michigan State football. First-year head coach Pat Fitzgerald attended Big Ten Football Media Days this week wearing green and white for the first time. In a little over a month, the latest iteration of Spartan football will take to the field. Only time will tell whether the new regime can elevate the Spartans back toward their previous heights. In the meantime, it is time to kick off my annual preview of the upcoming college football season. Over the past several years, I have developed and refined a set of mathematical tools to better understand the sport. With the 2026 season approaching, it is time to open the analytical toolbox and see what we can learn. Before we dive into the upcoming season for the Michigan State Spartans and beyond, it will be helpful to review the results of the past season. General Lessons from the Past During the summer, college football fans and analysts have limited information. Still, there is no shortage of predictions...

In the game of football on the offensive side of the ball, skill players such as quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers are often the ones who make the highlight reels. But n the background of almost all explosive plays in a offensive lineman who made a key block or picked up a blitzing defender. The five men who make up the offensive line form the backbone of all successful offenses. Issues at just one of the five positions can turn a very good offensive into a below-average one. Unfortunately, offensive line play in East Lansing has not been a strength for most of the last decade. In 2025, the Spartans averaged just 122.8 rushing yards per game and 3.78 yards per carry. Both values ranked outside of the top 100 of 134 Division I teams.  In fact, Michigan State has only average over 130 yards per game or over 4.0 yards per carry once since 2017 and that was in 2021 when future Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, Jr. carried the rock for the green and white. New head coach Pat ...