Skip to main content

Posts

Analysis of 76-team NCAA Tournament Expansion

After a quiet summer and fall, dark clouds are once again forming near the horizon of the college basketball world. Certain perceived power brokers are once again discussing the possibility to expand the NCAA basketball tournament. I have made my opinions on this matter crystal clear: it is an objectively terrible idea. Any person in a decision-making role who advocates for such expansion should be publicly and repeated ridiculed until forced out of the sport.  I have written previously about the many reasons why expansion is such a bad idea. Briefly, there is no evidence to support the idea that the current format does not allow in enough worthy teams. Instead, expansion will almost exclusively benefit unworthy, mediocre high-major teams at the expense of mid- and low-major teams.  Expansion also will disrupt the current schedule and popular activities such as office pools. This very likely will impact fans enjoyment of the tournament. To this end, in a world where people can...
Post a Comment
Read more
Recent posts

Where does MSU go from here after the humbling loss at Wisconsin?

There are a few things about the 2025-26 Michigan State Spartans basketball team that have become clearer over the past few weeks and in particular after Friday the 13th's dismal performance in Madison against the Wisconsin Badgers. One odd observation it how opposite this season feels compared to last season. Last year's team started slow and gained momentum as the season went on. This year's team started strong and now stuck in the mud. Last year's team struggled during the trip to the west coast. This year's team honestly has only played well on the road at Washington and at Oregon. Last year's team put the Michigan Wolverines in their place with double-digit wins in both meetings. This year's team allowed the skunk bears to win at Breslin for just the fourth time in over 30 years. Both teams lost three of four games in the late January and early February "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle" part of the schedule. Last year's team rallied to win the...
Post a Comment
Read more

Michigan State Stats Update for Feb. 13

The Big Ten race is always a rollercoaster, but the past week has been a more volatile ride than usual. Last Saturday, the Michigan State Spartans got a much needed win over No. 5 Illinois in overtime at the Breslin Center. After three straight games of subpar performance, the version of the Spartans which can make a serious post-season run finally reemerged. Some would argue that MSU broke out of the typical mid-season slump know in some circles as the Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle. But East Lansing was not the only locale that was gripped by drama this week. On Tuesday night, Purdue went into to Lincoln, Neb. and scored an upset win over the Corn Huskers. Later in the evening, the Wisconsin Badgers managed to to hand the Fighting Illini their second straight overtime loss, this time in the friendly confines of State Farm Center in Champaign, Ill.  On Wednesday night, Michigan trailed by as many as 16 points in the second half at Northwestern. It looked for a while like the upset bug ...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle: 2026 update

Prior to the overtime thriller over the Illinois on Saturday night, the Spartans had lost two game in a row and had not played well for three straight games. To fans, it feels like Michigan State does this almost every year. It is the very nature of college basketball that good teams sometimes take bad losses, such as a road loss at Minnesota. It happens. But, it is the  timing  of the skid that feels so familiar. Several years ago in some the corners of MSU Spartans sports internet, someone pointed out that Michigan State's winning percentage frequently took a noticeable dip in late January and early February. This was time of year was christened as the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle." I decided to also dig into this phenomena from a few different angles. I have a good database of MSU game result and spread data back to the 2006 season. I decided to study this effect using three factors: raw win percentage, performance against the spread, and performance relative to the Vega...
Post a Comment
Read more

After a disastrous night in Minneapolis, where do the Spartans stand in the Big Ten race and beyond?

I believe that it is time to provide Michigan State Spartans fans with some perspective. Prior to Wednesday night's disaster at Minnesota, MSU was 19-3 on the season which was tied for the best start in program history with the 2018 team that won the Big Ten title outright. The Spartans have high-quality wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Indiana, and at Washington.  MSU's other three loses have all come against top 10 opponents in games where that Spartans were highly competitive. Michigan State led Duke with just over four minutes to play and it was just a one-point game at the two-minute mark. Michigan State led Nebraska by three points at the four-minute mark and trailed by just two points with the ball and under 20 seconds to play. Last Friday night against Michigan, it was a one-point game at the four-minute mark before the Spartans ran out of gas. The three other teams who have given Michigan State a loss have lost a combined four games and one of them w...
Post a Comment
Read more

Michigan State and Big Ten Odds Update for Feb. 2

Friday night in East Lansing was not the kind of evening that Spartans fans were hoping for.  Michigan State came out of the gate surprisingly tight while the visiting Wolverines were surprisingly poised. A bizarre sequence in the final minutes of the first half was triggered by a controversial hook-and-hold call on Cam Ward. This call catalyzed an 8-0 Michigan run that put the Spartans in an 18-point hole in the blink of an eye. MSU managed to storm back in the second half and even briefly take the lead, but the damage done in the first half was too much to over come. The Spartans clearly ran out of gas in final five minutes as the Wolverines secured a double-digit victory at the Breslin Center. Broadly, a look at the stats sheet shows that the two teams were even in a remarkable number of areas. Turnovers, rebounds, free throws, and even two-point shooting all essentially cancelled out.  But the one area where Michigan carved out an significant advantage was three point shoo...
Post a Comment
Read more