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2026 College Football Analysis, Part 6: The Group of Six

So far, our math-informed exploration of the 2026 college football season has taken us back to 2025, examined the Michigan State Spartans’ schedule, and delved into the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC races. Today’s stop takes us to the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision conferences. In the 12-team College Football Playoff, the highest-ranked champion from the newly resurrected Pac-12, Mountain West, American Conference, Conference USA, Sun Belt, or Mid-American Conference will also earn a spot in the bracket. But which team will it be? Let's pay a quick visit to each conference and once again make some math-driven predictions.. American Conference The analysis of each of the so-called “Group of Six” conferences follows the same format as the Power Four breakdowns in the previous installments of this series. Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the American Conference race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of pro...
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2026 College Football Analysis, Part 5: The SEC, Big 12, and ACC Races

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have reviewed the results from 2025, taken a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and analyzed several scenarios in the Big Ten race. In today's installment, let's take a quick look at the races in the other three power conferences and make some predictions about which teams are most likely to earn automatic bids to the 12-team College Football Playoff. SEC Overview and Prediction Similar to the analysis done for the Big Ten, Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the SEC race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength-of-schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the SEC Championship Game and to make and win the 12-team playoff. Table 1:   Summary of the preseason projections for the SEC conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of ...
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2026 College Football Analysis, Part 4: Forecasting the Big Ten Race

In the previous installment of this series, the numbers established the shape of the 2026 Big Ten race. Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana sit at the top of the projected standings, but the path to Indianapolis is unlikely to be orderly. The next step is to move beyond the raw odds and examine the specific games, tiebreaker scenarios, and upset paths that could determine which two teams actually reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Big Ten Championship Scenarios In Part 3 of this series, I introduced a table summarizing my preseason simulation of the Big Ten race. It includes each team’s consensus preseason ranking, expected wins, two projected final records, strength of schedule, and odds to reach and win both the Big Ten Championship Game and the 12-team College Football Playoff. For reference, that table is duplicated below. Table 1:   Summary of the preseason projections for the Big Ten conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulatio...
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2026 College Football Analysis, Part 3: Big Ten Odds and Strength of Schedule

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have explored the historical accuracy of preseason rankings, looked back at last season, and mapped the potential paths for the 2026 Michigan State Spartans. Today, the focus shifts to the Big Ten race. Strength of Schedule The first piece of the puzzle is relative strength of schedule. Figure 1 summarizes my calculations for the overall schedules of all 18 Big Ten teams. Figure 1: Overall strengths of schedule for the 2026 Big Ten conference. The overall FBS rank is shown in each bar. There are several ways to calculate strength of schedule. My approach starts with preseason power ratings, which I use to generate projected point spreads for every potential college football matchup. I then calculate how many games a reference, borderline Top 25 team would be expected to win against each schedule. For example, against Michigan State's schedule, that reference team would have an expected win total of 7.65 games, or a ...
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2026 College Football Analysis, Part 2: Michigan State's Schedule

In part one of this year's math-based preseason analysis of the college football season, we looked back at the 2025 season. Through that analysis, we learned about the historical accuracy of preseason polls (plus-or-minus 25 positions) and regular season win totals (plus-or-minus 2.2 wins). We also explored the impact of changes in ability, schedule, and luck. Now it is time to shift focus to the 2026 season. Over the years, I have developed and refined a way to simulate the entire college football season using schedule information and preseason rankings as the only inputs. I will soon go through the full details of what I learned from this exercise. For today, I will focus exclusively on what my analysis says about the Michigan State Spartans. We will take a close look at the Spartans' 2026 schedule from three different points of view. Opponent Overview The best place to start this analysis is with the simulation's inputs. Figure 1 below summarizes the preseason rankings (...
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