Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

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The Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle: 2026 update

Prior to the overtime thriller over the Illinois on Saturday night, the Spartans had lost two game in a row and had not played well for three straight games. To fans, it feels like Michigan State does this almost every year. It is the very nature of college basketball that good teams sometimes take bad losses, such as a road loss at Minnesota. It happens. But, it is the timing of the skid that feels so familiar. Several years ago in some the corners of MSU Spartans sports internet, someone pointed out that Michigan State's winning percentage frequently took a noticeable dip in late January and early February. This was time of year was christened as the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle." I decided to also dig into this phenomena from a few different angles. I have a good database of MSU game result and spread data back to the 2006 season. I decided to study this effect using three factors: raw win percentage, performance against the spread, and performance relative to the Vega...

After a disastrous night in Minneapolis, where do the Spartans stand in the Big Ten race and beyond?

I believe that it is time to provide Michigan State Spartans fans with some perspective. Prior to Wednesday night's disaster at Minnesota, MSU was 19-3 on the season which was tied for the best start in program history with the 2018 team that won the Big Ten title outright. The Spartans have high-quality wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Indiana, and at Washington. MSU's other three loses have all come against top 10 opponents in games where that Spartans were highly competitive. Michigan State led Duke with just over four minutes to play and it was just a one-point game at the two-minute mark. Michigan State led Nebraska by three points at the four-minute mark and trailed by just two points with the ball and under 20 seconds to play. Last Friday night against Michigan, it was a one-point game at the four-minute mark before the Spartans ran out of gas. The three other teams who have given Michigan State a loss have lost a combined four games and one of them w...

Michigan State and Big Ten Odds Update for Feb. 2

Friday night in East Lansing was not the kind of evening that Spartans fans were hoping for. Michigan State came out of the gate surprisingly tight while the visiting Wolverines were surprisingly poised. A bizarre sequence in the final minutes of the first half was triggered by a controversial hook-and-hold call on Cam Ward. This call catalyzed an 8-0 Michigan run that put the Spartans in an 18-point hole in the blink of an eye. MSU managed to storm back in the second half and even briefly take the lead, but the damage done in the first half was too much to over come. The Spartans clearly ran out of gas in final five minutes as the Wolverines secured a double-digit victory at the Breslin Center. Broadly, a look at the stats sheet shows that the two teams were even in a remarkable number of areas. Turnovers, rebounds, free throws, and even two-point shooting all essentially cancelled out. But the one area where Michigan carved out an significant advantage was three point shoo...

Michigan State Odds Update for Jan. 28

Every night in the Big Ten has the potential for chaos, but Tuesday night's the action was particularly drama-filled. In Piscataway, New Jersey, the Michigan State Spartans trailed by as many as 12 points multiple time in the second half but rallied to tie the game with under 20 seconds to play to force overtime. In Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines trialed a short-handed Nebraska squad by as many as 11 points before taking the lead in the final seconds. Depending on which set of data one believes (ESPN or Kenpom), the Spartans had only a 10-15% chance to get the win over Rutgers in the final minutes of the games. Michigan had between a 20-30% chance to win late in the second half. But both the Spartans and Wolverine escaped Tuesday evening with a win. Purdue was not so lucky in Bloomington as the Boilermakers lost to rivals Indiana by five points. Table 1 below gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings through Wednesday night's conference action Table 1 : Enhanced Big T...

Michigan State Odds Update for Jan. 25, 2026

It was a very eventful week of Big Ten basketball. The Michigan State Spartans were able to complete the west coast swing with a sweep of Washington and Oregon. On Saturday, MSU shook off any hint of jetlag and demolished the Maryland Terrapins at the Breslin Center. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Nebraska, Michigan, and Illinois all picked up two additional wins. But it was a tough week for Purdue. The Boilermakers lost in the final minute at UCLA and then were upset at home on Saturday by the Fighting Illini. As a result, Table 1 below gives the updated Big Ten enhanced standings through Saturday, Jan. 24. Table 1 : Enhanced Big Ten standings through Jan. 24, 2026. The Cornhuskers sit alone at the top of the standings with a perfect 9-0 record, an impressive road win/home loss score of +5, and a strength of resume of +4.46 wins better than expected for an average power four team playing the Huskers' conference schedule to date. Michigan State, Illinois, and Michigan are tied for secon...

Michigan State odds update for Jan. 19

Saturday night the Michigan State Spartans did something that no other Tom Izzo coached team has ever done. MSU won a regular season conference game in the pacific time zone in the 80-63 win at Washington. OK, so maybe the win was not that big of a deal. The road game at Washington ranks as just the ninth toughest game on the conference schedule. But considering two of the Spartans three conference losses last year came in the city of Los Angeles, getting the west coast road win was a hurdle that needed to be cleared. With the win over the Huskies, the Spartans move to 6-1 in conference play. Let's dig into the data to see where MSU stands and how the Big Ten race is likely to play out. Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, Jan. 19. Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 19, 2026 Purdue and Nebraska are at the top of the standings with perfect 7-0 records. The Cornhuskers currently have an edge in strength of conference resume (+3.64) over...