Best and Worst Case Scenarios to close out the season

With only four games left in the regular season, the Big Ten race is in the home stretch for the Michigan State Spartans. The calendar says that March is less than a week away, and MSU still has a lot to play for.

Followingly a humbling loss to the Wisconsin Badgers, the Spartans reeled off two straight wins over the UCLA Bruins and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Table 1 below shows the updated Big Ten enhanced standings as of the morning of Feb. 25/

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of Feb. 25.

The Spartans were not the only members of the Big Ten's upper echelon to take a loss over the past week or so. The Purdue Boilermakers lost at home to the Michigan Wolverines. The Nebraska Corn Huskers dropped a game at Iowa, and Illinois Fighting Illini blew a 23-point lead and lost to UCLA in overtime.

As a result, MSU is currently in a four-way tie in the loss column for second place. Michigan has a commanding three-game lead in the standings. The Wolverines officially clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title on Tuesday night with a home win over Minnesota. There is only a two percent chance that any team will even tie Michigan. 

The Spartans are not yet mathematically eliminated in the title race, but the odds are down to 1-in-270. Michigan State would need to run the table and have Michigan lose the next two road games at Illinois and at Iowa. For all intents and purposes, the Big Ten race is over.

So the focus for Michigan State fans turns to the post season, starting with the Big Ten Tournament. Table 2 below gives the current odds for each team to earn each possible seed.

Table 2: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds.

Obviously, Michigan is heavily favored to earn the No. 1 seed, but the other three triple bye seeds are still up for grabs. Of the four teams with four losses in the standings, Michigan State is currently on the outside looking in in regards to a top four seed. 

MSU currently has just a 29% chance to earn a top four seed and the triple bye which would allow the Spartans to start the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. Michigan State is currently trending as the No. 5 seed (32% odds) or No. 6 seed (36%) odds.

Michigan State is currently around a full game behind the top four in the conference in expected wins. The Spartans have the second toughest remaining schedule (ahead of only Michigan) as well as only the fourth highest Kenpom efficiency (No. 9 nationally).

If the currently favored team were to win all 31 remaining Big Ten games, MSU would finish at 14-6 and tied with Wisconsin for fifth place. The head-to-head result would leave the Spartans with the No. 6 seed.

The Spartans' most likely first Big Ten Tournament opponent is Washington (21%). USC (19%) and Minnesota (16%) are the two next most likely opponents.

As far as the NCAA Tournament, this weekend the Selection Committee revealed their current seed list. This provides a hint as to where Michigan State will potentially land on Selection Sunday. The Committee currently has MSU ranked as the No. 14 team on the seed line. This translated in the No. 4 seed in the West Region in the partial preview bracket.

However, it should be noted that Michigan State did not even appear in the 2025 preview bracket in mid February. The Spartans finished strong last year, won the Big Ten, and eventually earned the No. 2 seed in the South Region.

Best and Worst Case Scenarios

With just four games remaining plus the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans resume is already quite healthy. Figure 1 below gives a snapshot of MSU's four remaining regular season games.

Figure 1: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

Michigan State is projected to be an overwhelming favorite to beat Rutgers on Senior Day, but the other three games will be very challenging. The Spartans currently project to be about a 4.0-point favorite at Indiana, but MSU has historically struggled to win in Bloomington.

Thursday night, Michigan State is expected to be about a 5.5-point underdog at Purdue. In the regular season finale in Ann Arbor, the Spartans project to be roughly a 10-point underdog to the Wolverines.

The odds shown in Figure 1 can be used to estimate the odds that MSU will finish anywhere from 16-4 to 12-8. The odds for each scenario are shown below in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Michigan State projected conference win distribution as of Feb. 24. The odds for a triple bye and the most likely Big Ten Tournament seed are given for each scenario.

Figure 2 also gives the odds for a triple bye and the most likely Big Ten Tournament seed are given for each scenario.

Note that Thursday night's game at Purdue will have a major impact on the Spartans' eventual position on the Big Ten Tournament bracket. A win over Purdue would push MSU's odds for a triple bye (i.e. a top four seed) to around 75%. A lose to Purdue would sink the odds down to below 10%.

Best Case Scenario: 16-4 Final Record

The best scenario for the Spartans would be to win the final four games of the season to finish at 16-4. The odds of such as run are just 3%. It is a long shot, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.

If MSU were to finish strong with wins at both Purdue and Michigan, the Spartans would be one of the top three seeds in the Big Ten Tournament, depending on the results elsewhere in the conference. The most likely scenario is that MSU would earn the No. 2 seed where the Spartans could face a team like UCLA on Friday evening in their first game in the conference tournament

Michigan State would be in a strong tie breaker position relative to both Purdue and Illinois, but the Spartans would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Nebraska.

In this scenario there is also close to a 12% chance that the Spartans end up in a tie for first place and share the Big Ten title with Michigan and potentially up to two other teams. In this case, MSU would be the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament in over 90% of these cases.

As for the NCAA Tournament, MSU's seed would depend on the performance in the Big Ten Tournament. My projections suggest that a No. 3 seed would be a lock with a chance to move up to a No. 2 seed, if the Spartans were to make the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. 

I would not rule out the possibility that the Spartans could even grab the final No. 1 seed if they were to defeat Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament Final, depending partially on the results in the other high-major conference tournaments.

Scenario No. 2: 15-5 Record

As mentioned above, running the table is a long shot, but the Spartans have a more reasonable 24% chance to win three of the final four games to finish at 15-5. The most likely paths to 15-5 involve splitting the road games at Purdue and Michigan while beating Indiana and Rutgers.

In this scenario, there is an 86% chance that the Spartans would earn a top four seed in the Big Ten Tournament and the triple bye that would come with it. For the purpose of conference tournament tiebreakers, beating Purdue is more important than beating Michigan.

The overall odds give MSU a 39% chance to earn the No. 3 seed and a 30% chance to earn the No. 4 seed with both the No. 5 and No. 6 seed also in play. The most likely first opponent in the conference would be a team such as Wisconsin.

As for NCAA Tournament positioning, my analysis suggests that Michigan State would be safely on the No. 3 seed line, but a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament, such as an appearance in the finals, could push the Spartans up to the No. 2 seed line.

Scenario No. 3: 14-6 Record

As implied from Figure 2, a final record of 14-6 for the Spartans is the most likely outcome with overall odds of 50%. There are six different ways to get to 14-6, but the most likely scenarios are the ones where MSU beats Rutgers and wins one of the three remaining road games, most likely at Indiana.

The odds for the Spartans to each a top four bye are less than 10% and the lone road win likely needs to occur at Purdue in order for Michigan State to sneak up into the No. 4 seed slot.

If MSU loses to Purdue, the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the Big Ten Tournament is most likely, depending on the final record of the Wisconsin. The Badgers are projected to lose at Purdue in their final game of the regular season. 

If Wisconsin picks up a second loss at Oregon or at Washington, they would finish behind MSU in the standings and the Spartans would get the No. 5 seed. But, if Wisconsin also finishes at 14-6 as well, the Badgers win the head-to-head tie breaker and the Spartans end up as the No. 6 seed.

Michigan State would likely begin the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday against a team such as USC or Minnesota.

For the point of view of the NCAA Tournament, this is the "status quo" scenario. Michigan State would essentially be treading water right now on the border of the No. 3 and No. 4 seed lines. The Spartans performance in the Big Ten Tournament would like be the deciding factor. An early exist would result in a No. 4 seed and a deep run likely would bump MSU up to the No. 3 seed line.

Scenario No. 4: 13-7 Record

In this scenario, the Spartans limp to the finish line. They most likely beat Rutgers but lose the three road games to finish at 13-7.

There is an 80% chance that MSU would earn the No. 6 seed in the Big Ten Tournament with this finish. However, both the No. 5 and the No. 7 seeds would also be in play. The Spartans most likely first opponent in the Big Ten Tournament would be Washington on Thursday evening.

The good news for the Spartans is that none of the three road loses in this scenario are particularly bad. All three are considered "quad one" games. Therefore, Michigan State would likely be solidly on the NCAA No. 4 seed line heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

An early exit to a team like Washington would put the Spartans in jeopardy of slipping to a No. 5 seed. However, a deep run to the conference tournament final would likely give Michigan State a few more high quality wins. There is even a chance that MSU could play themselves back up to the No. 3 seed line.

Worst Case Scenario: 12-8 Record

The fifth and final scenario is the one where Michigan State crashes and burns, dropping the next four games to finish at 12-8. Fortunately, the overall odds of this scenario are less than 0.5%.

If disaster were to strike, the Spartans would still most likely wind up with the No. 6 seed (52% odds) in the Big Ten Tournament, but the No. 7 seed (42%) would also be a strong possibility. The No. 8 and even the No. 9 seed would also both be on the table. MSU would most likely face Washington, USC, or Indiana in the first game.

In this case, the Spartans would very likely be a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament entering the Big Ten Tournament. My calculations suggest that even a loss to a team like Washington in the first game in Chicago would not push the seed for MSU any lower. That said, a No. 6 seed might be in play if the Spartans were to lose five straight.

Conversely, the Big Ten Tournament also provides several opportunities for quality wins. Another quality win over a team such as Purdue or Illinois would likely bump the Spartans back up to the No. 4 seed line, even with the weak finish to the regular season.

Add it Up

Based on the analysis above, here is my current feeling about how the total number of wins on Selection Sunday will translate into the Spartans' NCAA Tournament seed:

• 29 wins: No. 2 seed (with a chance at a No. 1 seed)
• 28 wins: No. 2 seed
• 27 wins: No. 2 or No. 3 seed
• 26 wins: No. 3 seed
• 25 wins: No. 4 or No. 4 seed
• 24 wins: No. 4 seed
• 23 wins: No. 5 seed
• 22 wins: No. 5 or No 6 seed