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Showing posts from October, 2022

Week Nine Recap: A Letter from Paul

Dear Spartan Nation, We all knew that this day would come someday, but that does not make the reality of the situation any easier. We all know how this works. The winner of the annual Michigan / Michigan State game gets to take me back to their town for a full year. Like all of you, I was hoping that the Michigan State Spartans would be able to pull yet another upset on the Wolverines. Sadly, it was not meant to be. I tried to put on a strong face for the camera on Saturday night, but I am sure that some of you could probably tell that I was close to tears. They put that stupid winged helmet on me and made me wear yellow pants. I mean, seriously. Who wears yellow pants? Are they all color blind over there? Gross. They even put one of those hats with the block "M" on it for a while. It was embarrassing. To me, "M" just stands for "Moron." So, I guess this is goodbye for now. I have really enjoyed the last two years in East Lansing. Things have really been g

Week Nine Preview: Stranger Things

Depending on your point of view, this is either one of the best or one of the worst weeks on the sports calendar. It's rivalry week. Fans of both the Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines have been talking for roughly 51 weeks about how the 2022 football contest might play out. As September has turned into late October, the trash talking has only intensified. This Saturday, the two teams will once again play for the Paul Bunyan Trophy on the gridiron in Ann Arbor. Six weeks ago, this looked like a very competitive game on paper, but the season has gone a bit upside-down in East Lansing. Injuries, a lack of development in a few key areas, and perhaps a little bit of bad luck have plagued the Spartans all year. At times the Spartans have looked more like a rag-tag group of kids from the Hellfire Club than Division 1 athletes. As a result, Michigan State comes into the contest as a huge underdog. Naturally, the Wolverines are acting like it's the 1980s or something and t

2022 Week Eight Recap: Cider and Donuts

I hope that everyone out there enjoyed the bye week and a stress-free weekend of college football. For those that live in Michigan, I hope that everyone enjoyed the beautiful weather. I was a perfect time to go visit one of the many venues that make up the Southeast Michigan Cider Mill Industrial Complex to perhaps enjoy some doughnuts and everyone's favorite lightly fermented fall beverage. Michigan State and Michigan were both a bye this week, and so both fan basis had a chance to a full-week head start on trash talking. From what I can tell, there was not a whole lot brewing yet on that front. I am expecting a few things with a little higher proof by kick-off on Saturday. I believe in you, Spartan Nation.  For now, let's jump right into the analysis of games this past weekend. Week Eight Results Figure 1 below shows the results of all 52 games involving two FBS teams in Week Seven. Figure  1:  Results of Week Eight showing the actual point differentials relative to the openi

2022 College Football Math-Based Preview: Mid-Season Update

Back in the summer I went through my annual process of crunching all of the numbers that I could find in an attempt to predict how the 2022 college football season might play out. We have now reached both the mid-point of the season as well as a much-needed bye week for the Michigan State Spartans. It seems like a good time to revisit and revise some of the those projections now that we have a lot more information and data.  Overachievers and Underachievers There are a lot of prognosticator out there who make predictions about the college football season in the summer. Some of those analysts will even use some of the same mathematical tools that I employ. But what makes my method unique and (frankly) more accurate is that my calculations always take into account the known uncertainty in the preseason rankings.  As it turns out, human beings are simply not very good at projecting how good college football teams are going to be before the ball is ever snapped. I look at several years of

Week 8 Preview: Lying Low

Welcome to the bye week, Michigan State fans! We all know that it has been a tough season so far, but last weekend's overtime win seems to have rekindled the fire in the belly of Spartans fans near and wide. Not only that, but we all get a full two weeks to bask on the afterglow of the homecoming win over Wisconsin. By the time Oct. 29 rolls in, it might even feel like a two-game winning streak. Until then, I suggest lying low for a while. Take a break. Go read a book, drink some cider, or carve a pumpkin. If your Wolverine neighbor wants to talk some smack, just smile and wave. We will have time for that next week. Yes. Let's just lie low for a while. It's a good time of year to catch up on some backlogged television. Maybe we can catch one of Michigan State's recent upset wins in Ann Arbor on B1G Football in 60. Let's see, which one should we watch? 2020? 2017? 2015? Maybe 2010? There's just so many to choose from! It's exhausting just thinking about it. I

Week 7 Recap: Momentum

Classical physics defines the property of momentum as the product of mass and velocity. Over the previous month of the season, the Michigan State Spartans seemed to be stuck in place. The velocity was zero.  This fact was weighing heavily on the hearts and minds of Spartan fans, players, and coaches. But this weekend, things finally started to move in a positive direction. Some might call it the product of getting a few players back from injury, better execution, and perhaps (finally) a little bit of good fortune. (It also helps to be playing at home against a team with a less potent passing attack.)  No matter the impetus, Michigan State finally is moving again after Saturday's massive double overtime win over Wisconsin. Dare we say that the Spartans have some momentum? For the first time in a month, Michigan State fans have something to be happy about. Classical physics also describes the concept of inertia, which is the idea that an object in motion tends to stay in motion. The