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Showing posts from December, 2022

MSU Hoops Analysis: Digging into Kenpom efficiency

The Michigan State basketball team (and many of their fans) just wrapped up Christmas. According to what Tom Izzo said following the win last week over Oakland, his players are currently "enjoying" two-a-day practices in preparation for one more non-conference game against Buffalo this Friday and the resumption of the Big Ten conference schedule just after New Year's Day. It is a good point in the season to take a step back and look at where we are now in the season and what fans can expect to see from Tom Izzo's squad in 2023. Personally, I am not sure what to expect. I see this as one of the more fascinating teams in the last 20 years.  In flashes, we have seen a team with excellent guard play, not one, but two excellent "stretch fours" in Joey Hauser and Malik Hall (when he is healthy and not manning the perimeter) and flashes of plus-play at the center position. There is certainly the potential that the team could emerge from Tom Izzo's boot camp thi

Bowl Week Preview, 2022

Michigan State Football fans may have completely shifted their focus to recruiting, basketball, or even hockey. (Yes! Hockey is back in East Lansing, folks!) But that does not mean that the college football season is over. In just a few short hours, it will be time to officially kick off the 2022-23 college football bowl season. It may not be the "most wonderful time of the year" when the team that you root for is stuck at home. But I am guessing that many of you out there are Spartan fans first and college football fans second. So, with this in mind, I would like to continue my tradition of providing a bit of potentially dubious betting advice for the remaining games this year. Bowl Season Picks Every week of this season, I have provided an analysis of the full slate of college football games, including a comparison between the opening point spreads and the predictions from both my computer and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Figures 1 and 2 below show these compariso

Big Ten Hoops Odds Update: After the Gauntlet

It has been a wild ride so far for Michigan State basketball, but the initial season opening gauntlet is now complete. The Spartans have played 10 games over a span of 30 days including two different trips to the Pacific Time Zone. Eight of those games were against high-major opponents currently ranked in the top 80 of Kenpom. Six of those games were played without at least one key starter (Malik Hall), four of those games were held at neutral sites, and three of those contests were true road games.  All things considered; it is actually kind of amazing that Michigan State is currently 6-4. Honestly speaking, just the past eight days have been a rollercoaster ride. First, Spartans fans were feeling confident after returning from the PK85 tournament in Portland, Ore. Then, Michigan State was reeling after two very poor performances in losing efforts at Notre Dame and versus Northwester. But, the Spartan's rebounded nicely Wednesday night with a win at Penn State. But where does this

Championship Week Preview

Football season might be over for the Michigan State Spartans, but the college football season is far from over. This weekend 20 teams will compete for a conference championship and the results of those games will determine the match-ups in the College Football Playoffs and the New Year's Six Bowls.  How are those game likely to shake out and what are the possible bowl game scenarios? Let's use a little math to see how things might play out. Championship Week Betting Preview Every week of the college football season, I compared the initial Las Vegas point spreads to the predictions for each game made by both my algorithm and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) computer. The analysis will often lead to betting recommendations, which historically have done well (other than this year... sorry). Figures 1 and 2 below summarize this comparison for Championship Week, 2022. Figure 1:  Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lin