It has been a wild ride so far for Michigan State basketball, but the initial season opening gauntlet is now complete. The Spartans have played 10 games over a span of 30 days including two different trips to the Pacific Time Zone. Eight of those games were against high-major opponents currently ranked in the top 80 of Kenpom. Six of those games were played without at least one key starter (Malik Hall), four of those games were held at neutral sites, and three of those contests were true road games.
All things considered; it is actually kind of amazing that Michigan State is currently 6-4.
Honestly speaking, just the past eight days have been a rollercoaster ride. First, Spartans fans were feeling confident after returning from the PK85 tournament in Portland, Ore. Then, Michigan State was reeling after two very poor performances in losing efforts at Notre Dame and versus Northwester. But, the Spartan's rebounded nicely Wednesday night with a win at Penn State.
But where does this now leave Michigan State in the broader context of the Big Ten race? Last week, I rolled out my annual math-based preview of the Big Ten season. But those numbers did not reflect any of the drama that played out over the last eight days. Today, it is time to check in on those numbers to see where the Spartans now stand a full two games into the Big Ten regular season.
Updated Big Ten Wins and Odds
As a very brief review, I have developed a computer simulation that uses adjusted efficiency data from Kenpom to project point spreads and game outcome probabilities for the entire Big Ten season. I also take the additional unique step of including a historically accurate amount of uncertainty into the numbers to improve the accuracy of the calculations.
Using this simulation, I can generate accurate statistics on the number of win each Big Ten team is expected to earn, odds for each team to win at least a share of the Big Ten title, and even odds for the seeding and eventual outcome of the Big Ten tournament.
Table 1 below shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix which reflects all games played through Wednesday, Dec. 7.
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| Table 1: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Dec. 8, 2022 |
Frankly, the data above is likely pretty concerning for Spartan fans. The current expected win total for Michigan State is essentially right at nine games. The data above gives the Spartans a only a 42% chance to finish the regular season with a 10-10 record or better.
This is a drop of a game-and-a-half over the past week. Part of this drop is due to the loss to Northwestern, part of it is due to Michigan State's over 2.5 drop in efficiency margin, and part of it is due to the fact that the Big Ten now looks like a stronger conference than it did a few weeks ago. As Table 1 shows, Kenpom currently has 11 of the 14 Big Ten teams ranked in the top 50 of efficiency margin.
Table 2 below provides an update on the odds for each team to win or share the Big Ten regular season title.
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| Table 2: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Dec. 8, 2022. |
Michigan State's Big Ten odds were only about six percent in my preseason analysis but now they are down to under two percent. Part of the reason is that my updated simulation says that it might take at least 16 wins to earn a regular season banner this year. There is only a 28% chance that the eventual Big Ten regular season champion(s) has 15 wins or fewer.
From a big-picture point of view, Purdue is in very good shape for Big Ten title. The Boilermakers' odds are up to 45%. Interestingly, Illinois now has the second-best overall odds at 16.7%, with preseason favorite Indiana just behind at 16.0%. The fact that both the Fighting Illini and Hoosiers already have a conference loss is certainly a benefit to Purdue.
The data in Table 2 contains a few other interesting details. For example, Illinois is 0-1 in conference play right now and ranked below Indiana in Kenpom, yet the odds for the Fighting Illini are higher than the odds for Indiana. Closer to home, Michigan State is ranked above both Wisconsin and Michigan in Kenpom, yet the Spartans have lower odds than both of those teams. The reason for these differences is found in the updated strengths of schedule.
Remaining Strength of Schedule
I outlined my method for calculating strength of schedule in the season preview. Briefly the method that I use involves calculating the number of expected wins for average high-major team if they were to play the schedule of each Big Ten team. Once the season starts, it is more informative to review the strengths of schedule for the remaining Big Ten games on a win percentage basis. The results of this calculation are shown below in Figure 1.
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| Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule for the remaining conference games as of Dec. 8. |
As the figure shows, Michigan State now has the most difficult remaining schedule in the conference. This is exactly why getting the win this week in State College was so critical. The road ahead in the New Year is a challenging one.
From the viewpoint of the overall conference race, Purdue and Indiana have remaining schedules of average difficulty while Illinois and Maryland have a relatively softer draw. Of the teams currently in the top five of Table 2, Ohio State has the most challenging remaining slate.
Big Ten Tournament Projections
It is extremely early to think about the Big Ten Tournament, but the data exists, let's take a quick look. Table 3 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed.
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| Table 3: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Dec 8, 2022. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update |
Based on the data that we have today, Michigan State is projecting to earn the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which would be the lowest seed for the Spartans in the history of the event. That said, these numbers have an extremely large variation at this point in the season.
There is actually over a 50% chance that Michigan State will earn a No. 9 seed or better. The odds that the Spartans finish in the top four with a double bye at 11% while the odds to finish in the bottom four are currently 33%. In other words, there are a lot of potentially plausible outcomes.
Table 4 shows the current odds for each team to advance through and win the Big Ten Tournament.
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| Table 4: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Dec. 8, 2022. |
As usual, these odds map almost exactly to the Kenpom efficiency margin values used as an input to my simulation. Michigan State's current odds are just below three percent.
Michigan State Schedule and Outlook
Figure 2 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games. This figure provides a snapshot of what fans can expect once conference play starts up again in 2023.
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| Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins |
The data in Table 1 suggests that Michigan State is most likely to finish the regular season with a 9-11 conference record. That number is essentially derived from the data in Figure 3. As we can see, the Spartans project to only be favored in five of the remaining 18 conference games. But, the majority of the games are solidly in the "toss-up" range with only three games total projecting to have a spread higher than six points: the games at Illinois, at Indiana, and at Purdue.
What is the worst-case scenario for the Spartans? If we can assume that Michigan State can win the next three non-conference home games (which is not a given but which is a reasonable assumption), a 9-11 conference record would translate to an overall record of 17-14.
Michigan State has obviously played a very challenging non-conference schedule and will play a challenging conference schedule. That said, I would be very nervous entering the Big Ten Tournament with a conference record under .500. I believe that a record of 10-10 in conference play will be needed for Spartan fans to feel relaxed on Selection Sunday.
As stated above, the current data gives Michigan State only about a 42% chance to finish conference play at 10-10 or better. So, what do the Spartans need to beat these expectations?
The answer is actually very simple. The Spartans need to start playing better than they have over the past few weeks. If Michigan State's efficiency improves to the level that it was prior to the injury to Mail Hall (around +18) then the Spartans' prospects improve significantly. Instead of only being favored in five of the remaining games, the Spartans would project to be favored in half of them.
The good news is that it is reasonable to expect better play starting in January. This team needs time to rest and to heal and they need time to practice. The Spartans will get all of those things over the next month. If Hall does return to full strength early in 2023, I fully expect that we will see a much more efficient team. That will naturally translate inro a higher number of expected wins.
But, simply getting at or a little above .500 is not the goal. That is the minimum expectation in East Lansing. Will the Spartans be able to challenge for a Big Ten title?
At this point those odds seem long, even if Michigan State starts playing a lot better by New Years' Day. The fact remains that the Big Ten conference looks tougher than expected and the Spartans' remaining schedule is the most challenging in the conference. If Michigan State does challenge for the title, they are also going to need a bit of luck.
In this case, "luck" means the ability to win more than half of the toss-up games on the schedule. Improved play can get Michigan State to maybe 13 wins. But if the Spartans want to get to the 15 or 16 wins needed to hang a banner, they are going to need to beat the odds by a few games. It would also help if the Boilermakers and Fighting Illini were to run into a bit of bad luck along the way.
In my season preview, I showed that luck (perhaps better referred to as "grit") is almost always an essential part of any Championship team. Can the Spartans display that needed level of grit in addition to improved play? Possibly. If nothing else, history shows that it is never wise to bet against Tom Izzo.
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