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Showing posts from August, 2012

2012 College Football Preseason Analysis

It is that time of year again!  What time you ask? Fanson baby watch 2012?  Well, yes, but it is also time once again to break open the football spreadsheet.  I introduced the spreadsheet last, year, but just to refresh everyone’s memory, I starting putting the spreadsheet together in grad school and I have been making steady improvements to it over the years.  I used to just track scores and standings, but over time I have refined the algorithms to predict game outcome / point spreads and generate power rankings.  As the 2012 season approaches, I have once again inputted the schedule information into the latest version of the spreadsheet and am taking an early look at what to expect.  If I take the pre-season rankings for each team, convert that to an estimated power ranking, and simulate the season by correcting for a teams performance at home or on the road (roughly a 3-point advantage for the home team), I have been able to predict the final record of all 124 FBS teams.  This year