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This may feel like cold comfort to Michigan State fans, but based on the results of the past few weeks, I think that it is fair to label the Spartans as "the team that lived."  Yes, the Spartans just returned from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette with a double-digit loss to Purdue. Yes, over the past seven games the Spartans have also dropped games at Indiana, and at Illinois. But in 2019, Cassius Winston and Xaiver Tillman didn't get wins in those buildings either. The Spartans also lost a home game to Purdue in that span. But they made up for it by taking down Wisconsin at the Kohl Center. Michigan State also managed to protect home court against Rutgers and Iowa.  While it would have been nice to post a record better than 3-4 in that stretch, the Spartans survived and now they have a chance to advance. How did the events of the past week impact Michigan State's season outlook and place in the Big Ten race? Let's dig into the numbers to find out. Updated Big Ten S

Sometimes, basketball is truly a strange game and the 2022-23 Michigan State Spartans have had a strange season. At times, this team has played well overall, yet fallen short in late stages of the game. Loses to Gonzaga, Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana come to mind. In other games, the Spartans did not appear to be as sharp, yet they were able to gut out a win. In this category, the wins over Kentucky and Michigan come to mind. Thursday night’s 63-61 win over the Iowa Hawkeyes also falls into this category. “Well, we've lost a couple we deserved to win,” Spartans’ Head Coach Tom Izzo said to open the postgame press conference.  “Tonight, we might have won one I'm not sure we deserved to win. So as Jud (Heathcote) always said, an ugly win is better than a pretty loss.” Why was the game so ugly? Coach Izzo broke down the areas where he felt that his team fell short on Thursday night. Part of it had to do with his team’s defensive. “We had some trouble with the ball screen

Alright, already. Just over two weeks ago the Michigan State Spartans were coming off of a grinder of a win over their archrivals, the Michigan Wolverines. The data at the time told us that the next five games were going to be challenging. Based on the projected point spreads (which were fairly accurate) the math said that most likely Michigan State would end up 2-3 in that stretch and 5-4 in conference play by Jan. 24.  For better or worse, the math was correct. While only winning 40% of the last five games is not ideal, there are reasons for optimism. The Spartans were very competitive and even held second-half leads in all five contests. Furthermore, Michigan State played most of those five games without senior forward Malik Hall, and the Spartans only got two days of rest between all five of those games. Despite the losses, it does feel like progress was made. In other words, despite the bad news that came, I encourage you not to worry. I have a feeling that good news will still wo

On Thursday night in the Jack Breslin Student Events Center, there were a lot of things for Michigan State Spartan fans to feel good about. The Spartans shook off a two-game losing streak with a much-needed win over the visiting Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  It wasn't just that the Spartans won, it was also the way that they won and who they beat. Rutgers is no longer the Big Ten doormat that they were in the first five years or so of their membership in the conference. These Scarlet Knights are a ranked, well-coached, tough as nails Tournament team and bona-fide conference contenders. Michigan State did not just win by making a few more plays down the homestretch by feeding off the raucous home crowd. No. These Spartans took control of the game late in the first half and never relinquished it. Furthermore, there were no late-game meltdowns. These Spartans slowly extended the lead in the second and won going away, 70-57.  Perhaps most importantly, these Spartans did it with their most

You win some; you lose some. Coming into last Friday night's game at Illinois, the Michigan State Spartans had won seven straight games, were healthy, and seemed to be hitting their stride. Now, just a few days later, the Spartans find themselves in the two-game losing streak after faltering late against the Fighting Illini and at home against the Purdue Boilermakers. There is certainly no shame in losing in Champaign or to the No. 3 team in the country, especially back-to-back. But the fact is that Michigan State had multiple possession leads deep into the second half of both games. If a few plays go differently in each game, the Spartans could be in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. Instead, they are on a two-game skid. To make matters worse, Malik Hall seems to have reinjured his foot and is now back on the shelf for an undetermined period of time. Things could be going better in East Lansing. In order to better understand the trajectory of the current Michigan Stat

 Be careful, Spartan fans. It's a jungle out there. When I first looked at the Big Ten schedule last fall, it was clear that the schedule in January was not going to be fun and games. A closer look at the schedule also identified the most difficult stretch: back-to-back road games at Wisconsin and at Illinois in the span of four days. The Spartans went 1-1 over those two games and for 30 minutes or so on Friday night, it looked like it might be 2-0. But the home-town Fighting Illini may the winning plays down the stretch and managed to snap Michigan State's seven-game win streak. Where does Michigan State stand in the Big Ten race with six games now in the books? Let's run the numbers and see where things stand. Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 31% of the regular season now complete. Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 16, 2023. The Purdue Boilermakers are currently kings of the jungle with a

A few weeks ago, I introduced two of the most important areas of basketball data analysis: tempo-adjusted efficiency (as summarized well by Ken Pomeroy) and the "four factors of basketball success". In those introductions, I showed where the current Michigan State Spartans basketball team stands in those areas relative to past Michigan State teams and the rest of the current field. Now that Michigan State has a few more games in the win column, it is time to briefly revisit those numbers. Updated Kenpom Efficiency Figure 1 below is the updated Kenpom efficiency scatter plot with data through Jan. 12 (after Michigan State's win over Wisconsin). For those who may be unfamiliar with this plot, I broke down what all the data means in my previous article.  Figure 1: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Jan. 13, 2023. The bad news for Michigan State fans is that despite the return of both Jaden Akins and Malik Hall from injury, and despite big wins over Nebraska, Michigan, and