MSU Hoops Odds Update: The Sorting Hat

This may feel like cold comfort to Michigan State fans, but based on the results of the past few weeks, I think that it is fair to label the Spartans as "the team that lived." 

Yes, the Spartans just returned from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette with a double-digit loss to Purdue. Yes, over the past seven games the Spartans have also dropped games at Indiana, and at Illinois. But in 2019, Cassius Winston and Xaiver Tillman didn't get wins in those buildings either.

The Spartans also lost a home game to Purdue in that span. But they made up for it by taking down Wisconsin at the Kohl Center. Michigan State also managed to protect home court against Rutgers and Iowa. 

While it would have been nice to post a record better than 3-4 in that stretch, the Spartans survived and now they have a chance to advance.

How did the events of the past week impact Michigan State's season outlook and place in the Big Ten race? Let's dig into the numbers to find out.

Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 51% of the regular season now complete.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 30, 2023.

Purdue continues to be Head Boy of the Big Ten house with a record of 10-1 and a very strong plus/minus rating of +5. Following the Boilermakers is a group of nine total teams with either five or six wins, including Michigan State. 

As for luck (also known as "grit" or the ability to win toss-up games), only Purdue, Northwestern, and Michigan State have scores significantly greater than +0.5. Ohio State (-2.34) is the only team with less than a half game of negative luck. The 10 remaining Big Ten teams are close to neutral in this metric.

Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten win matrix as of Jan. 30 and based on the results of a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation which uses Kenpom efficiencies to derive the odds for all remaining Big Ten games.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Jan. 30, 2023.

As expected, Purdue continues to have a huge lead in expected wins. My calculations now give the Boilermakers better than a 50-50 chance to win 17 games or more, which would clinch a Big Ten title even if Northwestern were to run the table (which has odds of about one in 7,000).

After Purdue, the teams in the middle of the conference are finally starting to sort themselves into tiers.

Rutgers (12.85) continues to hold onto second place in expected wins, but third place Illinois (11.70) is now just over a game back with Indiana less than a half of a game behind the Fighting Illini. 

The teams currently sitting between the No. 5 and the No. 8 in expected continue to be bunched up. Less than 0.3 of a game separates Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State and Iowa. 

After Iowa, Penn State (10.03) is now a half game back of the middle pack with Michigan (9.08), Ohio State (8.70), and Wisconsin (8.30) all decidedly below .500 and in the danger zone when it comes to the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Nebraska (6.05) and Minnesota (2.51) fans are free to investigate Spring Break vacation destinations as their teams will have the later weeks in March free. I hear that Universal Studios is nice.

Table 3 below shows the updated Big Ten Champions odds matrix.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 30, 2023.

At this point, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Purdue is going to run away with the regular season Big Ten title, barring some catastrophic injury on their roster. My calculations give Purdue a 97.4% chance to win or share the title, and in 95% of the simulations, Purdue is the sole champion.

Rutgers has the next best odds at just under four percent. Only Indiana and Illinois have odds greater than two percent.

For the record, Michigan State's current odds of sharing the Big Ten title are about 1-in-670.

Strength of Schedule Update

Figure 1 below shows the updated strengths of schedule for the remainder of the Big Ten schedule.

Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule (SoS) for the remaining conference games as of Jan. 30, 2023. SoS is calculated as the expected win percentage an average high-major team would have if they were to play each team's remaining schedule.

For the last three weeks, I have discussed in this space how Michigan State has the most difficult remaining schedule in the conference and how the gauntlet at the end of January was brutal. Figure 1 above shows that the gauntlet is now officially in the rear-view mirror. 

Following the game at Purdue, the Spartans' remaining schedule is now the sixth easiest in the Big Ten. Furthermore, several teams near Michigan State in expected wins (see Table 2 above) have remaining schedules of comparible difficultly (Iowa), moderately higher difficult (Illinois and Penn State), or significantly higher difficulty (Northwestern and Indiana).

Of the teams in competition for the remaining three top four seeds in the Big Ten tournament (assuming that Purdue will almost certainly get one of them) only Rutgers and Maryland have easier remaining schedules than Michigan State.

For reference, Figure 2 below shows the overall strength of schedule data for each team, including the raw calculations and the corrected value (which attempts to adjust for the benefit or penalty that each team gets for not having the chance to play themselves). 

Figure 2: Updated Big Ten overall strengths of schedule using the raw values (left) and the corrected values (right) which accounts for the benefit (or penalty) for a team to not need to play themselves.

Big Ten Tournament Odds

Speaking of the Big Ten Tournament, if the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 69 Big Ten conference games left. That said, we can accurately project the odds that each team will earn each possible seed in the Big Ten Tournament using the magic of simulation.

Table 4 below provides these odds.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Jan. 30, 2023. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update last week.

Similar to the expected win matrix shown in Table 2, the projected Big Ten Tournament seed distribution table shows a similar type of sorting. Purdue is very likely to earn the No. 1 seed, with Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana leading the rest of the field in the chase for the coveted tournament double bye.

At the bottom end of the conference, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Minnesota should all make plans to arrive in Chicago a day early. Four of those five teams are likely to start play on Wednesday in the first round.

As for Michigan State, the Spartans project to be the No. 8 seed in the tournament, but there are clearly a lot of opportunities to move up in the standings. My calculations give the Spartans about a 20% chance to move up to at least the No. 4 seed earn a double bye. If Michigan State can get to 12 or more conference wins, at least a No. 5 seed is extremely likely.

Table 5 below shows the current odds for each team to advance through the Big Ten Tournament and eventually win the tournament title. 

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Jan. 30, 2023.

These odds have remained fairly stable over the past month, as they tend to track closely with overall Kempon efficiency margins (which are the primary input to my model). Surprisingly, Purdue's odds of hanging a Big Ten Tournament banner in 2023 remain surprisingly low at just 37%. 

Rutgers (13%), Indiana (11%), and Illinois (nine percent) have the best odds to challenge the Boilermakers for the automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan State all have odds between four and six percent.

Michigan State Schedule and Outlook

Figure 3 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games. 

Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

As Figure 3 shows, the Spartans project to be clear favorites in two of the remaining nine games (at home against Minnesota and at Nebraska). The Spartans project to be likely underdogs in three of the remaining games (versus Rutgers in Madison Square Gardens, at Ohio State and at Iowa). The remaining four games (home games against Maryland, Indiana, and Ohio State and the road game at Michigan) project as toss-ups.

Based on the probabilities in the figure, the math says to expect between four and five wins in this group, which translates into an 11-9 or a 10-10 final conference record. If this math winds up being correct, this is the most likely way that the home stretch of the season will play out.

In this scenario, Michigan State would win only one of next three games (most likely winning at home against Maryland and dropping the two road games). Then, the Spartans would likely win two of the next three games (beating Minnesota and splitting at Michigan and versus Indiana). 

Michigan State then project to lose at Iowa and win at Nebraska to get to 10-9 in the standings. The final chapter of the season against the Buckeyes in the Breslin Center would be a toss-up to determine if the Spartans would finish above .500 or not.

But as I look at this schedule, I see a lot of opportunities for wins. Every team remaining on the schedule has proven to be vulnerable, even at home.

For the first time since Christmas, the Spartans get several days off to rest, recover, and practice. This is the time for Coach Izzo to place the sorting hat on the heads of his players and figure out what kind of team they ultimately want to be. 

If they continue on the path that they are on and only play to the same level that they have been playing since late November, then the Spartans most likely will finish with just 10 or 11 conference wins. Depending on the performance in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan State would likely earn somewhere between a No. 7 and a No. 10 seed in the Big Dance. Another first weekend exit would be the most likely outcome.

However, if the Spartans can tighten the screws that need to be tightened and kick their level of play into a higher gear, I could see the Spartans winning 12, 13, or maybe even 14 games. This would position the Spartans for a top five finish in the Big Ten and likely something between a No. 4 and No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

If the Spartans can get themselves into one of those seeds, a return to the Sweet 16 suddenly becomes much more feasible. After that, considering the field of teams in 2023, anything can happen. 

But that all depends on how much work the Green and White can get done this week. One way or the other, destiny awaits.