Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

Every year around this time, a new set of programs take to the airwaves (and the fields) to entertain the masses. The weekly cadence of games is almost episodic in nature. Over the next 13 weeks the story of the 2022 season will unfold and many of us will be huddled around our televisions just waiting to see what will happen next. Sure, some of the programs out there are a bit stale and boring. (I am looking at you Wisconsin and Iowa.) Some are strong but a little too predictable (Ohio State). Some feel like they just may be starting to get good (Minnesota? Purdue?) A few others seem on the brink of cancellation (Indiana and Rutgers), while others seem to keep chugging along even though no one is watching (Maryland). Sometimes there are a few key actors who are just fun to watch (Pat Fitzgerald!) and other times these are those who seem to be so bad at their craft that it's not clear how they still have a job (James Franklin). But often times it's the reoccurring characters and

Throughout the month of August, we have looked in detail at the 2022 college football season using a few mathematical tools to help us to understand the various scenarios that could play out and how likely they are relative to each other. We have looked in detail at Michigan State's schedule, the Big Ten, the rest of the Power Five, the Group of Five, and we even made some post-season predictions. Today is the final stop on that journey before the real fun begins. At the end of the previous installment of this series, we began to compare the odds that I have generated to the odds that are available online at DraftKings SportsBook for various teams to make the playoffs and win the National Title.  In this final installment of our season preview, we will provide some additional dubious betting advice for the Big Ten in general, notable division and conference races, and regular season win totals. Let's kick things off with another look at the Big Ten odds. Big Ten Betting Advice

Over the past several weeks, we have traveled together on a mathematical journey where we previewed the upcoming college football season. We started with a deep dive into Michigan State University's schedule and season prospects. We then analyzed the Big Ten, the remaining Power Five, and the Group of Five. Today, it is time to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together and make some predictions about the 2022 college football post season. Review of Previous Predictions In the previous three installments of this series, I made a prediction as to the final record of each team and the results of each conference championship game. My official process is to use the results of my "disruptive" simulation. This simulation uses the projected point spreads of all FBS games and adjusts the results to include a historically reasonable number of home upsets.  Here is a summary of how I see each conference championship playing out. In each case I show the projected record of each te

Over the past few weeks, I have been breaking down the upcoming college football season through the lens of math and simulation. I started by performing a breakdown of Michigan State's schedule and season outlook. I then performed a deep dive on the Big Ten race. Most recently, I looked at the conference races in the remaining Power Five conferences.  Today, it is time to look at my computer's projections for the remaining FBS-level teams who as a whole make up the Group of Five conferences. Let's jump right in, starting with the American Athletic Conference. American Athletic Conference (AAC) In the following sections, I will present two data tables to summarize the results of my calculations and full season simulation of the 2022 college football season. The first installment of this series explains my methodology in more detail. Briefly, most of the data is derived some a series of 240,000 Monte Carlo simulations where I use a consensus of the preseason rankings of all 1

As the start to the 2022 College Football season edges closer, it is time to continue this year's mathematical preview. In the first two installments in this series, I summarized the methodology that I use to make the calculations that I am about to show, and I analyzed Michigan State's schedule and the Big Ten race overall. Today, I turn my focus to the remaining four Power Five conferences. Let's jump right into the data with a summary of the SEC. SEC Preview Table 1 below shows the win distribution matrix for the SEC. Table 2 below summarizes the consensus preseason ranking of each team, expected win total, projected records, strengths of schedule, and the overall odds to win the division, conference, make the college football playoffs and win the national title. Table 1 : SEC win probability matrix derived from the results of the 240,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation, including the known uncertainty in the preseason rankings Table 2:  Summary of the preseason projections