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Showing posts from September, 2018

2018, Week 5 Preview: Chips and Salsa

The critics can say what they want about MSU's somewhat lackluster 2-1 start, but the fact of the matter is that MSU has played a relatively tough schedule so far.  While the quantification of schedule strength is a bit dubious (in my opinon), the method I use says MSU has played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation so far, including only teams that were ranked in the Top 80 in the preseason.  Only Alabama in the Power 5 can also make that claim.  I project that all three of MSU's previous opponents will be playing in a Bowl game.  That said, it is not like MSU has faced a gauntlet of Top 15 teams so far, but the distinct lack of any cupcakes on the schedule has, perhaps, cost MSU a little bit of development time, even with the bye week.  It is sort of like going to your favorite TexMex place and having them hand you a burrito with a side of fajitas right as you arrive.  You might be wondering where the Chips and Salsa are and you might end the night with a bit of indigestio

2018, Week 4 Recap: The Land of Confusion

OK, I'll admit it. This weekend's result just have me a bit confused.  Coming into this week, I thought that we would learn a lot about MSU's chances going forward for the rest of the year.  Either MSU would look better, win, and momentum would start to build for the bigger match-ups coming in a few weeks.  Or, MSU would struggle, lose or almost lose, and I would start to adjust expectations for the rest of the year. Somehow, neither of these two things seem to have happened, or maybe both happened?  I am not sure... hence my confusion. I mean, MSU went on the road, beat a decent to approaching good Big Ten team at night by 2 TDs.  If you would have told me that on Saturday afternoon, yeah I would have been quite happy.  But, if you also would have told me MSU was going to turn the ball over 4 times, give up a TD on a coverage bust, still struggle to run the ball, still have problems with penalties, the entire OL would be injured, and Lewerke was going to be erratic, I

2018, Week 4 Preview: Returning to the Scene of the Crime

2016. October 1st.  Bloomington, Indiana.  Overtime.  Thinking back on it, that was the date and time when everything went south.  That was the place where the snowball reached a speed where it could no longer be stopped.  Its momentum wrecked havoc on the 2016 MSU football season.  Bloomington, Indiana.  MSU's hopes of a successful football season were murdered that evening.  It was the scene of the crime.  This coming Saturday night, MSU will return to the scene of the crime for the first time since that fateful night in 2016.  If we are being honest with ourselves, the situation is eerily similar to that night two years ago.  MSU is coming off a disappointing upset loss in their previous outing.   It is early in a season where in the summer MSU was ranked in the Top 15 with goals of possibly winning the Big Ten.  All that changed on that early October night in 2016, and all that could change this weekend as well. In other ways, this feels just like last year's Iowa game,

2018, Week 3 Recap: Disasters. Natural and Otherwise

Dear Florence, I hate to be the one to break this to you but, know this: no one likes you.  Not only did you cause the cancellation of six college football games this weekend (which I hate, because it messes with my statistics. NOT COOL.), but you just slammed into the Atlantic Coast and wrecked havoc on the lives of millions of people.  YOU JERK.  Seriously.  Also, by the way, other Hurricanes talk about you behind your back.  They say that you are big and slow and you can't hold you rain. Also, you smell bad.  Yeah, that's right. YOU SUCK.  They sometimes say that you are just a Tropical Depression anyway. BURN.  So, you just go away. GO. No one wants you here anymore. I hope you trip and fall on the Appalachian Mountains and poke your eye out.  IT WOULD SERVE YOU RIGHT.  You are the lowest of the low.  You are the Wolverines of natural disasters.  Now, GET! Now that that is off my chest, enough about the weather, I am here to talk college football.  MSU was off this week

2018, Week 3 Preview: Watches and Warnings

MSU obviously stayed up WAY past their collective bedtimes last weekend, so you know what guys? Why don't y'all just take this weekend off, sleep in, and try to get healed up a bit.  With a Hurricane Warning imminent on the Atlantic Coast and several Upset Watches brewing, perhaps it is a good weekend to stay inside anyway.  While you are at it, please think about how to improve the pass rush, the o-line blocking and protection, and how to not commit stupid penalties on 3rd down in the Red Zone. K? K. See you in Bloomington. National Overview Per my usual process, the chart and table below summarize my spreadsheet's picks for Week 3.  As the graph implies, over half of the games this week have a spread under 10 points, which suggests a potentially wild and entertaining weekend... and that was before the Huricane.  If fact, my simulation suggests we should expect 12.6 ± 2.9 upsets this week, which is a pretty big number.  As for my highlighted teams to cover, my spr