2016. October 1st. Bloomington, Indiana. Overtime. Thinking back on it, that was the date and time when everything went south. That was the place where the snowball reached a speed where it could no longer be stopped. Its momentum wrecked havoc on the 2016 MSU football season. Bloomington, Indiana. MSU's hopes of a successful football season were murdered that evening. It was the scene of the crime. This coming Saturday night, MSU will return to the scene of the crime for the first time since that fateful night in 2016. If we are being honest with ourselves, the situation is eerily similar to that night two years ago. MSU is coming off a disappointing upset loss in their previous outing. It is early in a season where in the summer MSU was ranked in the Top 15 with goals of possibly winning the Big Ten. All that changed on that early October night in 2016, and all that could change this weekend as well.
In other ways, this feels just like last year's Iowa game, except that game was in East Lansing. This is a game MSU needs to win, on the road, at night, to open Big Ten play. A loss here would mean that MSU is mostly likely staring down the barrel of a 7-5 season, or worse. Based on the success of last year's team, the number of returning contributors, and the apparent leadership and skill on the roster, that final result would be disappointing. It would be a crime. But, here we are. On the other hand, a win would be a very positive start to Big Ten play and could start positive momentum that should then build into a 4-1 record before the next very big test at Penn State. Now, it is still true that MSU could lose this game, get their crap together over the next few weeks, and then somehow run the table. That's possible. But, I think it is clear that for us, as fans, our faith that MSU will close out the season strong would be severely shaken with a loss this weelend. The problem is, it might shake the confidence of the team as well. For these reasons, this very much feels like a turning point, for better, or for worse.
Indiana is not Ohio State, but they aren't South-East-North-by-Northwest Indiana State either. My current calculations suggest that Indiana is the 5th best team MSU will face this year, just slightly worse than the Sun Devils team that MSU failed to close out two weeks ago. The Vegas spread opened at MSU -3.5, which historically means this is a 60%-40% game. My spreadsheet is slightly less confident (-1.4). So, for those that think that this is a roll-over game that MSU should have no problem winning, I say think again. The opponent, location, and timing of this game make it a very big and important test. Should MSU win? Yes, I think that they should. Will MSU steal the victory? I have no idea. I agree with those that say that this MSU team has a lot of potential, but also has flaws and so far has been flat out sloppy. If some of those things get cleaned up, MSU should make a clean get-away. If not, the Spartans will have to give back our favorite brass chotchkie, and that would just be criminal.
National Overview
The graph below shows my spreadsheet's weekly picks against the spread. My algorithm likes 12 teams to cover this week: OSU, Auburn, Miami, Ole Miss, Syracuse, LSU, OK State, WVU, Toledo, Arkansas State, and Cincinnati.
In other ways, this feels just like last year's Iowa game, except that game was in East Lansing. This is a game MSU needs to win, on the road, at night, to open Big Ten play. A loss here would mean that MSU is mostly likely staring down the barrel of a 7-5 season, or worse. Based on the success of last year's team, the number of returning contributors, and the apparent leadership and skill on the roster, that final result would be disappointing. It would be a crime. But, here we are. On the other hand, a win would be a very positive start to Big Ten play and could start positive momentum that should then build into a 4-1 record before the next very big test at Penn State. Now, it is still true that MSU could lose this game, get their crap together over the next few weeks, and then somehow run the table. That's possible. But, I think it is clear that for us, as fans, our faith that MSU will close out the season strong would be severely shaken with a loss this weelend. The problem is, it might shake the confidence of the team as well. For these reasons, this very much feels like a turning point, for better, or for worse.
Indiana is not Ohio State, but they aren't South-East-North-by-Northwest Indiana State either. My current calculations suggest that Indiana is the 5th best team MSU will face this year, just slightly worse than the Sun Devils team that MSU failed to close out two weeks ago. The Vegas spread opened at MSU -3.5, which historically means this is a 60%-40% game. My spreadsheet is slightly less confident (-1.4). So, for those that think that this is a roll-over game that MSU should have no problem winning, I say think again. The opponent, location, and timing of this game make it a very big and important test. Should MSU win? Yes, I think that they should. Will MSU steal the victory? I have no idea. I agree with those that say that this MSU team has a lot of potential, but also has flaws and so far has been flat out sloppy. If some of those things get cleaned up, MSU should make a clean get-away. If not, the Spartans will have to give back our favorite brass chotchkie, and that would just be criminal.
National Overview
The graph below shows my spreadsheet's weekly picks against the spread. My algorithm likes 12 teams to cover this week: OSU, Auburn, Miami, Ole Miss, Syracuse, LSU, OK State, WVU, Toledo, Arkansas State, and Cincinnati.
As for upsets, my spreadsheet is feeling frisky this week, as it likes a total of 10 upsets. Even the very conservative FPI has 6 games where it likes the underdog. Based on my simulation of the week, the total number of upsets should be 12.4 ± 2.9. Some of my upset picks are quite surprising, as it suggests Kansas will drive their win streak to 3 over Baylor, SMU will get a win over Navy, and Tennessee will upset Florida (uh, really?). Then again, there are a couple of upsets where the Vegas line just seems a bit out of whack. For example, Oregon is favored over Stanford and USC is favored over Washington State. My algorithm has the Cardinal and Cougars favored by double digits. Finally, the most interesting upset pick is both my algorithm and the FPI picking Iowa to upset Wisconsin. The winner of that game will be a heavy, heavy favorite to go to Indy, and in situations where both my algorithm and the FPI agree... an upset happens about 60% of the time over the past 2 years.
Big Ten
For the majority of the contenders in the Big Ten East, it is not supposed to be a challenging week. Ohio State (-34) and Penn State (-26.5) are both big favorites against Tulane and Illinois, although the Penn State game is on the road, which gives me just a tiny bit of pause. In addition, Michigan (-18) seems to be catching the Huskers at just the right time, and by that I mean they are playing them this year. So, the biggest game in the East this week is the MSU / Indiana game. For outsiders looking in, this is clearly a chance for MSU to show that they are still an East Division contender. The bottom of the division has two other notable games as Maryland (-1) will try to get off their shells against the Gophers and Rutgers (+3) will try to actually beat a decent MAC team (Buffalo). I don't project either team to be successful.
Out West, one of the biggest games of the week nationally is Wisconsin's road trip to Iowa City (+3.5). Even in the preseason, this game looked like perhaps the most impactful game on the entire Big Ten schedule and the defacto Big Ten West Title Game. Now the we are 4 weeks in, it looks even more so. Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska have clearly all stumbled out of the gate, and as of today Minnesota looks like the only other team with a shot (pending their business trip to Maryland this weekend). However, in the preseason it also looked like Wisconsin would be a healthy favorite in Iowa City, but after they stumbled last week, the line implies that this is another 60%-40% match-up. As I mention above, both my math and the FPI like Iowa. If that comes to pass, my calculations say that there is an 88% chance Iowa makes it to Indy. If Wisconsin wins, their odds would go up to 61%. This one is must-see-TV. Other than that, Purdue (+6.5) has one more chance to not embarrass themselves in the non-conference when Boston College comes to town. While my spreadsheet thinks this line is just about dead-on, my gut says the Boilers might pull this one out... somehow.
SEC
Just looking quickly at the spreads in the SEC shows that it is likely going to be a slow week, especially in the SEC West. Sure, Alabama (-23.5) is playing Texas A&M, and this one could get interesting, especially since A&M did give Clemson some trouble back in Week 2. However, this game is in Tuscaloosa, and the spread magnitude suggests only a 5% chance that Uncle Nick has a bad weekend. Other than that, the only other potentially close game is Mississippi State (-10.5) at Kentucky. If the Bulldogs want to stay in the hunt in the West, they can't falter in Lexington.
In the East, the slate is slightly more interesting. Georgia (-13.5) travels to Missouri this weekend to face a team that might just be the 2nd best team in the SEC East. But, in all likelihood, the only realistic shot any SEC East team not named Georgia has is to pray the Bulldogs lose to both LSU and Auburn while they survive conference play with just one loss (to Georgia). Good luck with that. But, to that end, Florida (-5.5) will try to hold steady with one conference loss as they travel to Tennessee while South Carolina (-1) will do the same at Vanderbilt. Interesting, my spreadsheet likes the home underdog in both cases.
ACC
The situation in the ACC this week is very similar to the that of the SEC... a bit slow. The apparent top teams in the conference (Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, and I will add Duke to this list) are all big favorites and with the exception of Clemson, are playing low level non-conference opponents. The Tigers are traveling to Georgia Tech (+15.5) and much like Penn State, I will pause slightly for this contest since it is on the road.
Other than that, the remaining games seem to all involve mediocre teams jockeying for position in the middle of the road (before they get hit by the trucks at the top of the conference later in the season). Syracuse (-27.5) will attempt to reach 4-0 against UCONN, which should go fine as long as everyone understands that this is a college football game and not a Big East basketball game from 10 years ago. Florida State (-11.5) will see if they are bad enough to get upset by a MAC team (Northern Illinois). My spreadsheet still likes the Noles by 3.5, but I don't think anyone would be shocked if they lose again. Wake Forest (+7) will host ACC wannabe Norte Dame, while BC (-6.5) visits Purdue, and NC State (-6.5) has an interesting trip to Marshall. With very limited data, my spreadsheet believes the Wolfpack is the team with the best chance to dethrone Clemson in the Atlantic Division, but I would personally like a little more data. In conference play, Pitt (-4) will try to build off their win last week in Chapel Hill, while Louisville (-3.5) will visit Virginia. Based on my current projections, none of those teams are a shoe-in for a bowl, so every win will matter for that elusive Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl or Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl bid. (Sadly, I did not make those names up.)
Big 12
As conference play kicks off in the Great Plains, a few teams will get tested early. Oklahoma (-33 vs. Army) is not one of them. But, for the teams that I projected to finish 2nd and 3rd in the conference back in the summer (TCU and Texas) they will face each in Austin, where TCU is a mere 2.5 point favorite. Is Texas a legit contender after beating USC last week? Nah, I think the Trojans are just a team with some holes, and everybody knows a Trojan with a hole is a very bad situation. The other teams worth watching are West Virginia (-13.5) as they play host to K-State, and Oklahoma State (-11.5) who will host Texas Tech. The Wildcats are off to a bit of a slow start, while the Moutaineers looked great in Week 1 against Tennessee, but since then have played Youngstown State and had a surprise, Hurricane-induced bye. Similarly, the Cowboys looked great last week in their only competitive game, while the Red Raider bounced back last week against Houston after getting blitzed by Ole Miss in Week 1. This week should bring some clarity to these team in the middle of the pack. Finally, Kansas is going for 3 in a row at Baylor (-9.5), which my math say they will get, while Iowa State (-19.5) hopes to avoid the same fate as Northwestern against the Akron Zips.
Pac 12
As Pac 12 play starts in earnest, a full third of the conference decided to just take the week off. I am guessing that they will all still be in bed by 10 AM EDT as well. Lazy west coast bastards. For those that did decide to show up this week, there are only four games on the schedule. One of them is Arizona (-7) at Oregon State, which has all the hallmarks of an exhibition of poor to terrible football. The other 3 games, however, looks pretty interesting. The headliner, of course, is Stanford's duck-hunting trip to Eugene. Oregon opened as a 2-point favorite, and honestly, this is one of the oddest lines that I have seen in a while. My spreadsheet like the Cardinal by over 25 points. Granted, I have not seen either team play. I will admit that. But, just looking at the results so far, Stanford has been far more impressive. Oregon's somewhat narrow victory over San Jose State last week (35-22) is a major red flag. The (other) Spartans lost in Week 1 to UC Davis and were shut out by Wazzou in Week 2. I don't usually talk about locks, but this is the closest one I have seen in a while. I really like Stanford in this one.
As for the other two games, Arizona State looks to bounce back at Washington (-17.5) following their late night loss to San Diego State last week. MSU's strength of schedule sure could use this upset, but my spreadsheet agrees with Vegas within a point. The final game features Washington State at USC (-3.5). Similar to the Stanford-Oregon game, this one puzzles me, as I have Wazzou as a 13-point favorite. Once again, the Cougars have been solid in the early weeks, while the Trojans have been blown out twice in a row with one of those blow-outs being to Texas. Sure, this game is in the Colosseum, but I really like WSU here as well.
Independents and the Group of Five
For the first time this year, the Fighting Irish will be leaving the comfortable confines of South Bend to face Wake Forest (+7). Considering the Irish have only beaten bad to questionable teams at home so far by an average of 7 points, I have to wonder if this game will be tighter than a TD. That said, my math does concur with Vegas in this case. As for the Group of Five, the discussion as always starts with the Mountain West, but 5 of the 12 teams (including conference and current NY6 favorite, Boise State) have byes this week. But, there are two interesting MWest-MAC match-ups worth checking out as San Diego State (-10) is hosting Eastern Michigan and Nevada (+10) visits Toledo. In addition, it will also be interesting to see if Utah State (-8.5) can continue to put up big points against the slightly better competition of the Air Force Academy.
In the AAC, the field is still a bit open, and many of the potential contenders (Houston, Memphis, and South Forida) don't look to be challenged. That said, C-USA favorite Florida Atlantic is visiting Orlando this week to face UCF (-13.5). Win or lose, they're still probably going to Disney World! The other match-up on my radar is Ohio at Cincinnati (-8.5) as both of those teams also look like possible contenders in their own leagues.
Finally, MACtion this week also looks pretty interesting, with a lot of tantalizing non-conference match-ups, all of which are peppered into the sections above. Just to summarize all of them in one place we have Akron (+19.5) at Iowa State, Buffalo (-3) at Rutgers, EMU (+10) at San Diego State, Kent State (+24.5) at Ole Miss, Northern Illinois (+11.5) at Florida State, Ohio (+8.5) at Cincinnati, and Nevada at Toledo (-10). The MAC is favored in only 2 of those 7 games. Can they steal 1 to 2 more upsets again this weekend? Call the cops!
Well, that is all for this week. Enjoy the games and as always, Go State, Beat the Hosers!
Comments
Post a Comment