Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

Friday night's game in Madison presented a tremendous opportunity for the Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team. The Spartans were on a roll, having won three straight games and eight out of the last 10. A win over Wisconsin would have padded the Spartans' NCAA Tournament resume and allowed Michigan State to stay in the Big Ten race. Instead, the Spartans fell on their face, never led, and wound up losing by 15 points. What went wrong in the trip to America's Dairy Land and what does it mean for the future? Let's dig into the data and find out. Note that the full set of data (and details on how to read the figures) related to Michigan State and the Big Ten race can be found in the odds and data tracker. Today's analysis will highlight the key information and what it all means for the Spartans going forward. What Went Wrong At Wisconsin? The best place to start in the autopsy of a 15-point loss is with the four factors. Figure 1 below provides these data.

Back on Jan. 13 when the Michigan State Spartans were fresh off form the loss at Illinois, I issued the suggestion that it was not time to panic. Despite the fact that Michigan State was 1-4 in conference play, the schedule suggested that the Spartans had a great chance to make up ground over the next several weeks. Michigan State did not exactly dominate from wire-to-wire over the past three games, but the Spartans did notch three victories over Rutgers, Minnesota, and at Maryland to even the conference record at 4-4. As a result, the Michigan are currently holding steady in the Big Ten race. The past three wins have allowed the Spartans to hold and slightly improve their position. In today's update, we will look at that position in more detail. Also in this update, I would like to introduce one other change in format. Throughout the year, I have used this space to provide periodic updates on odds and stats related to the Big Ten race. But these data change on a daily basis, which

Throughout the Big Ten basketball season. I have conducted an analysis on the results of a series simulations which provides various odds regarding the trajectory of the Michigan State men's basketball season and the Big Ten race as a whole.  In addition, I have provided additional analysis of Michigan State and the Big Ten race using Kenpom efficiency data compared to historical data and the set of statistics known as the "four factors of basketball success." As the season goes on, the data changes almost daily. This post is meant to be a one-stop shop for the most updated data on the Big Ten race. In addition, this post will contain a explanation of how to read each table or figure. Analysis of the data will be done elsewhere. This post contains "just the facts." Last Update: Jan. 22, 2024 Percentage of Big Ten games completed: 37.1% Enhanced Big Ten Schedule Table 1:  Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 22, 2024 Table 1 below is what I refer to as the enhan

Throughout the season, I have provided updates on the prospects for the Michigan State men's basketball team using predictive metrics and simulation to estimate how the full Big Ten season is likely to play out. Following the win this weekend over Rutgers, the Spartans overall position remained mostly unchanged. Michigan State is mostly likely to finish 12-8 or 11-9 in conference play in roughly fourth place. The Spartans have about a 2.0% chance claim a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan State continues to have one of the easier overall and remaining Big Ten schedules. The Spartans also continue to be the least "lucky" team in the conference as measured by the difference between actual wins and expected wins (based on probabilities derived from point spreads). In the previous data-driven update, I introduced the Kenpom efficiency scatter analysis, which revealed that despite the disappointing win-loss record, Michigan State continues to have the efficien

Since the beginning of the men's basketball season, I have been providing periodic updates from the results of my Monte Carlo simulation of the full Big Ten season.  This simulation provides information such as the expected number of wins each team will earn by the end of the season, conference championship odds, strength and schedule, and Big Ten Tournament odds. On Tuesday night, Michigan State lost a hard-fought game to the Illinois Fighting Illini to fall to a conference record of just 1-4. Across the internet, Spartans fans began to hit the panic button. But I am here to tell you that there is no need to panic, at least not yet. The primary reason that I enjoy tinkering with sports-related numbers is that they help me to put the results that I see on the hardwood (or gridiron) into context. They also help to remove the emotional component of the game. The numbers are a tool that help us to understand the past and to predict the future. These numbers tell me that the Michigan S

Happy New Year Spartans fans! The last time I provided a math-based update on the prospects of the Michigan State Spartans' Men Basketball team, the Spartans had just defeated the Baylor Bears in Detroit. Michigan State was able to ride the wave of momentum following that win into a five-game winning streak, including an impressive win over a tough Indiana State club and the first conference win of the season over Penn State. But that win streak came to an abrupt end on Sunday night in Evanston, as Michigan State dropped a road game to the Northwestern Wildcats. Some of the same problems that haunted the Spartans earlier in the season (most notably perimeter defense) reared their ugly head. Michigan State is just four games into the conference slate, but with a record of just 1-3, the Spartans have already dug a sizable hole. How bad are things? Let's check the math and find out. Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings