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Showing posts from August, 2016

2016 College Football Preseason Analysis

(Originally posted to various internet sources in August, 2016) Howdy gang! I have checked in here periodically to post some of my stats and data that I compile about MSU and college sports, especially football and basketball. For the past two years, I have shared my detailed analysis of the upcoming college football season based on a set of simulations that I perform based on each team’s preseason ranking, schedule, and a set of algorithms that I have refined over the years. I have  posted previously on my methodology , which essentially figures on a historically reasonable number of upsets using the logic that upsets are most likely to happen when a strong teams has to go on the road to play a slightly weaker team. The method is certainly not fool proof, but I did go on record last year predicting both MSU and Clemson to make the playoffs, so it certainly has shown value in the past. One minor change from last year is that this year I am exclusively using the preseason rankings fr