(Originally posted to various internet sources in August, 2016)
Howdy gang! I have checked in here periodically to post some of my stats and data that I compile about MSU and college sports, especially football and basketball. For the past two years, I have shared my detailed analysis of the upcoming college football season based on a set of simulations that I perform based on each team’s preseason ranking, schedule, and a set of algorithms that I have refined over the years. I have posted previously on my methodology, which essentially figures on a historically reasonable number of upsets using the logic that upsets are most likely to happen when a strong teams has to go on the road to play a slightly weaker team. The method is certainly not fool proof, but I did go on record last year predicting both MSU and Clemson to make the playoffs, so it certainly has shown value in the past. One minor change from last year is that this year I am exclusively using the preseason rankings from Phil Steele, mostly because it seems to be harder and harder to find publications that will rank all teams from 1 to 128, and as Steele likes to advertise, his rankings/predictions (based on my analysis) DO seem to be better on average than other publications. Last year I went a bit overboard on the verbiage, so much so that the estate of Leo Tolstoy tweeted that I needed to be "less verbose" and the Tolkein estate texted me to say that my analysis took "longer to get through than the Old Forest." So, before we get lost in the woods and find ourselves at Tom Bombadil’s house, let’s jump right in.
Big Ten
Quite honestly, I am not sure why I even need to discuss the Big Ten, as Michigan has already claimed victory in the Big Ten East, BTCG, National Semifinal, and National Championship Game. I am really not sure why I am even bothering to analyze this season, or any future season for that matter. Jim Harbaugh will clearly win all of the rest of his games until at the age of 117 when his body will finally break down and UofM scientists have to download his consciousness and coaching genius into a "coach-bot" such that he can maintain his unblemished record in perpetuity until the sun finally explodes, consuming the earth in purifying fire. At least, that is the general vibe based on most mainstream sports media this off-season, making it only slightly more ridiculous than a typical UofM off-season.
But, wait a minute, this is reality we are dealing with here, and the fact is that there are three very good teams in the Big Ten East: Ohio State (pre-season ranking at 9), Michigan (13), and MSU (17). But, one of those three teams has the distinct advantage of playing the other two at home, and that team is MSU. The rest of MSU’s schedule is favorable as well, drawing Wisconsin (36) and Northwestern (42) at home and with very manageable road games at Maryland (85), Illinois (82), Indiana (57), and Penn State (40). PSU could get dicey, but in general, my simulations have MSU running the table in the Big Ten to get back to Indy, even if in reality they are only the 3rd best team in the conference on a neutral field. OSU is the obvious biggest roadblock, as they face UofM at home, but they also have back-to-back road games at Wisconsin and Penn State that will not be a cakewalk. The winner of the MSU-OSU game clearly has the inside track. As for UofM, the early part of their schedule is sponsored by Charmin, but three of their final 5 games are at MSU, at Iowa (20), and at OSU. Realistically, UofM would likely need to win 2 of those 3 to win the East, which seems unlikely to anyone not from Ann Arbor. Using a slightly different simulation, I actually estimate their odds of winning of the division at right around 25%, while both MSU and OSU have odd around 35%. I project UofM to finish 9-3. As for out of conference games, both MSU and OSU have big-time match-ups on 09/17 when MSU visits Notre Dame (12) and OSU visits Oklahoma (4). The simulation does not like either B1G team’s chance, which would leave MSU at 11-1 and OSU at 10-2 at the end of the regular season.
In the Big Ten West, Iowa (20) turned out to be the surprise darlings last year, and based on their schedule, 2016 could look a lot like 2015. Wisconsin (36), Nebraska (27), Northwestern (42), and Michigan (13) all travel to Iowa City this year. The Hawkeye’s toughest road game is at Penn State (40), which the simulation does have them barely dropping. Even so, my simulation has Iowa running away with the B1G West Title once again with an 11-1 overall record. Surprisingly, I calculate Iowa to have the 2nd best chance of all Power 5 teams of going 12-0 in the regular season at 11.3%. I have seen some buzz about Nebraska or even Wisconsin in the West, but the Huskers face road games at Northwestern, OSU, and Wisconsin (in addition to at Iowa) while the Badgers travel to both East Lansing and Ann Arbor (and Iowa City). So, good luck with that. In this scenario, of course, a MSU-Iowa rematch in Indy would take place the first weekend of December, and my simulation would once again have Mark Dantonio’s team raising the trophy after 60 minutes of necessary roughness. My simulation has no comment on which MSU player would abruptly snatch a trophy away from Archie Griffin. Technology does have its limits.
SEC
Simulating the SEC, in particular the SEC West, is always a challenge. In a division where 3 of the teams [Alabama (1), LSU (3), and Ole Miss (10)] are slated to be Top 10 teams and 3 other teams [Auburn (19), Texas A&M (25), and Arkansas (28)] are in the Top 30, the simulation usually just predicts a bloodbath where no team finishes with fewer than 2-3 losses. In reality, that usually doesn’t happen, but we can use the simulation to look for subtle advantages or disadvantages. In this case, the scheduling gods seem to finally be shinning on LSU in the West. Much like MSU, the Tigers draw both Alabama and Mississippi at home, and their East cross over games are manageable [at Florida (22) and vs. Missouri (62)). Even if LSU drops the road games at Florida and Auburn, I still have them winning the West at 10-2 overall. As for Bama, they are the consensus #1 team in the preseason, but road games at LSU, Mississippi, Arkansas, and suddenly respectable again Tennessee (6) create a very tough row to hoe. Bama’s performance on the road could have the largest impact on the overall college football season.
As for the SEC East, Tennessee seems to be the team to beat. If their preseason ranking of #6 holds up, the schedule is also favorable, in which they play host to Alabama (1) and Florida (22). Their toughest two road games are at Georgia (29) and at Texas A&M (25). I do have them dropping the game at A&M, but this still leaves them at 11-1 and with wins over the two next best teams in the division. Based on their initial ranking and schedule, I calculate the Vols to have the best change to go undefeated in the regular season of all Power 5 teams at 15.5%, and that is even considering that they play Alabama. However, in the SEC Title game, LSU (3) would be expected to beat Tennessee (6) on a neutral field to claim the SEC crown.
Pac 12
Out west, it has the trappings of another competitive year as Phil Steele suggest five quality teams, Stanford (7), Washington (8), and Oregon (21) in the North and USC (16) and UCLA (17) in the South, with no other teams in the Top 30. Of those candidates, Washington in the North seems to have the clear edge, as they face both Stanford and USC at home and avoid UCLA all together. I do project them to lose to the Ducks in Eugene, but this won’t stop them from winning the Division with an 11-1 record. Their odds of going undefeated I calculate at 8.9%, 4th best of all Power 5 teams. Last year I correctly predicted a surprisingly successful year for Stanford based on their schedule, but this year the worm has turned and road games at UCLA, Washington, Oregon, and Notre Dame (12) all look problematic. In principle, Oregon does play Stanford and Washington at home, so they could wind up on top, but with road games at USC and at good-enough-to-be-dangerous Utah (33), 2 losses seem most likely. A third loss is even projected in Oregon’s mid-September trip to Lincoln, NE which certainly will impact the relative valuation of the two conferences. A win there by the Cornhuskers (27) would certainly be helpful.
As for the South, although UCLA and USC seem to have comparable teams on paper (according to the experts) UCLA has, by far, the better schedule. The Bruins draw both USC and Stanford at home and do not face Washington. In fact, their toughest road game is a winnable one at Arizona State (37), which is the reason I project them to actually run the table at 9-0. That makes UCLA’s potentially most interesting game a first weekend road trip to College Station to play Texas A&M (25), where I do project a loss. However, this could be the biggest hurdle to a 12-0 season. That being said, their odds to run the table are only 2.4%, 15th best in the Power 5, which suggests an overall tougher schedule than teams with a similar projected final record, such as Iowa, Tennessee, and Washington. As for USC, they have to travel to Stanford, Utah, UCLA, and Washington. Ouch! Oh, and on September 3rd they get to travel to Dallas to play Alabama. Talent-wise, USC could be a Top 15 team yet still finish 7-5. But, they could still do the college football world a favor when they get to host Notre Dame on Thanksgiving weekend. The Irish could come into that game 10-1 (or better) but I don’t have them leaving L.A. with a W, and that could be the 2nd time in two years where the Irish enter California dreaming of the playoffs and leave with their tails between their legs. In this overall scenario, Washington would beat UCLA on a neutral field to claim the Pac 12 crown.
Big 12
It seems like every year the Big 12 is one of the more entertaining conferences, and that is not just because of the police blotter in Waco. The full round robin format certainly has its merits. This year, most prognosticators see Oklahoma (4) as the team to beat with TCU (11) and Baylor (14) being not far behind and Texas (24) and Oklahoma State (34) within striking distance. Of that group, once again Oklahoma seems to have the edge, as among that group of Top 40 Big 12 teams they only have to play TCU in a true road game. Even if they drop the game to the Horned Frogs, TCU has to face Baylor and Texas on the road which I project as 2 losses, and Baylor is in a similar boat (playing Texas on the road). So, the Big 12 title might have more to do with how good Texas is (i.e. who they can knock out of contention) than how good the Top 3 teams are. In any event, the Big 12 might influence the overall college football landscape more by what happens in non-conference play. Oklahoma has two HUGE non-conference games at Houston and vs. Ohio State. My simulation has them winning both to finish 11-1 overall, but that is certainly no guarantee. TCU (11) vs. Arkansas (28) is a tasty Week 2 match-up and furthermore, the opening weekend match-up of Notre Dame at Texas looks to be one of the few potential loses on the Irish schedule.
ACC
In principle, the ACC seems pretty easy to handicap. In general, there are two elite teams, Florida State (2) and Clemson (5) and they are both in the same division. This year, FSU gets the Tigers at home, and that makes the Seminoles the odds-on favorite to win the division and overall ACC crown. That is basically what I expect to happen, but there are a few interesting subtleties to the schedule. Once again, Clemson's schedule seems to be oddly easy, as FSU is the only team in the upper half of the conference that they have to play on the road and I don't expect Clemson to lose to either Louisville (23) or Pittsburg (32) at home. So, a 11-1 or 10-2 record for Clemson (a week 1 trip to Auburn looks like a L to my simulation) looks pretty plausible. I have the Tigers with a 9.9% chance to go undefeated, 3rd best among Power 5 teams. However, things are a bit tougher for Florida State. First, they open the season in Orlando with a game against Ole Miss (10). After a short, one week, cupcake snack break, they face a gauntlet of at Louisville (23), at South Florida (ranked a surprisingly high 38), vs. UNC (26), and at Miami (18). None of those teams are all that scary, but those four games in a row give me pause. My simulation has them winning all of those games except at Miami, which would still be enough to win the Division with an 11-1 overall record. My simulation also says FSU has a 8.1% chance to go undefeated, 5th best of the Power 5, and oddly lower than Clemson due to the tougher overall schedule.
Speaking of Miami (18), "the U" seems to be back and find themselves as the team to beat in the Coastal Division. As stated above they do host Florida State, they also get to host the two other teams in the Division that will likely be their biggest competition: UNC (26) and Pitt (32). So, my simulation has them winning the Division by 2 games. In fact, if it were not for a road game in South Bend in late October, I would have Miami running the table. Although, similar to UCLA, I give them only a 1.9% chance to run the table. That said, the Hurricanes would not be predicted to win a rematch with FSU in December for the ACC Title.
Group of 5 and Notre Dame
I have already mentioned the Irish (12) a few times, and one thing to note is that this is the type of year where their fan base must be really "excited" about this loose affiliation with the ACC. If vs. Duke, at Syracuse, vs. NC State, vs. Miami (OK, that's a good game), and vs. Beamer-less VA Tech don't get you excited, well, you must just be an ordinary college football fan. The big games on the schedule (other than Miami (18)) are the opener at Texas (24) (a projected L), vs. MSU (17)(sadly, a predicted W), vs. Stanford (7,W) and the season finale at USC (15, L). If this plays out, an almost, but not quite exciting 10-2 would be the result. But, some publications do not seem to have as much faith in Texas and USC as Phil Steele does, and if that is true, the Irish could sneak into the playoffs. Otherwise, my simulation has them with a 21.4% chance to win 1 or fewer games.
As we are all now most likely used to, the Group of 5 gets an automatic bid to the New Year's Six Bowls, which based on this year's rotation means they will certainly be in the Cotton Bowl. So, it is worth our time (in my opinion) to take a look at the most likely candidates for this slot. In the American Athletic Conference, the only teams ranked by Phil Steele in the Top 40 are Houston (30) and South Florida (38), although some places have Houston much higher. Both teams have Cincinnati (53) and Memphis (58) on the road and my simulation suggests Houston can survive those match-ups but USF can't. Thus, Houston does seem like a safe bet to win the conference. The twist is that both Houston and USF have some interesting non-conference match-ups, with Houston hosting Oklahoma (4) opening weekend and Louisville (23) in late November and USF hosting Florida State (2) in late September. I don't have either AAC team winning a top 5 match-up, but I do have Houston beating Louisville to finish 11-1.
The other obvious source for a Cotton Bowl Group of 5 participant in the Mountain West, which this year seems a bit top heavy. Of the 12 conference teams, only 3 are ranked in the Top 80: Boise State (31), San Diego State (45), and Air Force (55). San Diego State's schedule is just sad. They host Cal (49) on September 10th (who I project that they will beat) and then play literally zero teams the rest of the year ranked in the top half of Division I (or whatever we are calling it these days). Their odds of running the table in the regular season are a staggering 26.5% (2nd best overall). Air Force's schedule is almost as bad as they have no one in the top half of Div. I until the last game of the season, when they host Boise State, a game I do have them losing, but a game that could feature two 11-0 teams. That is because Boise also has a light schedule, although they do host both BYU (43) and Washington State (48). Overall Boise has the best overall chance of going undefeated at 32.7%. My simulation has an undefeated Boise State team beating an undefeated San Diego State team in the Mountain West title game, but you could realistically have any of those three teams run the table.
The other team that could make a surprising run (row?) to the Cotton Bowl is none other than the pride of Kalamazoo, the Western Michigan Broncos (54). They are likely to drop the opener at Northwestern (42), but are actually much higher ranked than their second opponent, Illinois (82) and have a very favorable MAC schedule (getting Northern Illinois and Toledo at home). I have them at 11-1, with a projected win over Ohio in the MAC title game to make it 12-1. In the Sunbelt conference, Arkansas State (60) might run the conference table by somehow not playing Appalachian State (66), but an early season loss to Auburn likely keeps them out of any serious Cotton Bowl talk. But, 11-1 is still 11-1, so I guess you never know. To round things out, I have Marshall winning the C-USA with a 9-3 record. Nothing to see here.
So, if things play out as above, how do the NY6 Bowls shake out? The top candidates seem to be [with their resumes in brackets]:
1. Florida State [12-1, ACC Champ, loss on 10/8 at Miami (11-2), avenged in ACC title game and wins over Ole Miss, Louisville, Miami, UNC, Clemson, and Florida]
2. Michigan State [12-1, Big Ten Champs, loss on 09/17 at Notre Dame (10-2) and with wins over Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa]
3. Oklahoma [11-1, Big 12 Champ, loss on 10/1 at TCU (10-2) and with wins over Ohio State, Texas, and Baylor]
4. LSU [11-2, SEC Champs, loss on 09/24 at Auburn (8-4) and 10/08 at Florida (9-3) and wins over Ole Miss, Bama, Texas A&M, and Tennessee]
5. Washington [12-1, Pac 12 Champs, loss on 10/8 at Oregon (9-3) and wins over Stanford, USC, and UCLA]
While the "other" candidates seem to be
Boise State (13-0, best win over... BYU?)
Tennessee (11-2, SEC East Champ)
UCLA (11-2, Pac 12 South Champ)
Miami (11-2, ACC Coastal Champ)
Iowa (11-2, Big Ten West Champ)
Houston (12-1, AAC Champ)
Western Michigan (11-1, MAC Champ)
Clemson (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
TCU (10-2)
Notre Dame (10-2)
Baylor (10-2)
If we look at those hypothetical resumes, as my rankings above show my gut feeling is that Washington is the odd team out as the Oregon loss is a little worse and the wins over Stanford and USC will be tainted by those teams’ schedule-induced poor records. The match-ups then shake out as follows:
Peach Bowl: #1 Florida State vs. #4 LSU
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Michigan State vs. #3 Oklahoma
As for the other NY6 bowls, most of them would wind up picking replacements for the teams in the playoffs. The Rose Bowl would likely pick up Ohio State to play Pac-12 Champ Washington, the Sugar Bowl would pick up Tennessee and likely TCU (since unlike Baylor they actually will play a real team in the non-conference this year), and the Orange Bowl would likely pick Miami. Miami's opponent is tricky, as Notre Dame would make the most sense. But, as this creates a rematch, my understanding is that the Orange Bowl would revert to another SEC or Big Ten team, and the "best available team" looks like Iowa, especially since the Big Ten has not yet filled an Orange Bowl slot. The Cotton Bowl in this scenario would likely take undefeated Boise State, with the most likely opponent being either Notre Dame or UCLA. I like UCLA is this match-up of resumes. So, that gives us (considering projected victors):
Rose Bowl: Washington (7) over Ohio State (8)
Sugar Bowl: Tennessee (6) over TCU (11)
Orange Bowl: Miami (18) over Iowa (20)
Cotton Bowl: UCLA (16) over Boise State (31)
As for the playoffs, my simulation suggests another semifinal exit for MSU and Florida State as the eventual champ. But, you know what the best part of this whole scenario just might be? The logical Citrus Bowl match-up would be Michigan vs. Alabama.
God, I love math.
Finally, here is a list of the games that I feel will be the most impactful on the playoff and overall college football landscape. Of the 12 games I highlight, a full third take place on the first weekend.
9/3 UCLA at Texas A&M: If the Bruins can win in Texas, they could be a dark horse for the playoffs even with a loss in the Pac 12 Title game
9/3 Oklahoma at Houston: If Houston wins here AND runs the table, you HAVE to put them in the playoffs, right?
9/3 Notre Dame at Texas: The Irish win and an 11-1 record and trip to the playoffs becomes very realistic
9/3 Florida St. vs. Ole Miss: If FSU can’t beat the Rebels, but can beat Clemson, the ACC might be on the outside of the playoff discussion
9/17 Ohio State vs. Oklahoma: If the Buckeye’s win, can they make the playoffs without winning the East?
10/29 Clemson at Florida State: Winner (likely) take all, with the all being the ACC title and playoff berth
11/5 Alabama at LSU: This game could decide the SEC West and might be what keeps Saban from repeating.
11/19 Ohio State vs. Michigan State: The winner here is the likely Big Ten Champ and Playoff participant
11/19 Oregon at Utah: If the Ducks win in Provo, they just might win the North and enable UCLA to win the Pac-12 and enter the playoffs
11/26 TCU at Texas: If TCU can survive Austin, they could win the Big 12 and stake a claim on the playoffs
11/26 Notre Dame at USC: Just like last year, a win a CA to close the season could result in a playoff berth
12/3 Mountain West Title Game: The winner might be 13-0, and would have at least the Cotton Bowl locked up, but would they be ranked in the Top 4?
Enjoy!
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