Playing the first game after a bye week is like waking up from a nap. It is a little tough to predict how the body will respond.
If a nap comes at just the right time and lasts for just the right length of time, it can be very refreshing and rejuvenating. But sometimes waking up for a nap can be rough. It can cause a disorienting, groggy feeling like suddenly two plus two equals five and that down is the new up.
Based on the way the three weeks prior to the bye week went, last week's break at the midpoint of the season came at exactly the right time for the Spartans. Facing one top five team is challenging enough. Facing two top five teams on consecutive weekends including almost 5,000 miles of travel is something else entirely.
But how will the rested Spartans look on the field come Saturday night? It is hard to predict what we are going to get. It is the classic "rest versus rust," million dollar question.
I prefer to be optimistic and to believe that the Spartans will come out sharp and efficient and find a way to ride the home town, night-game atmosphere to an upset win. If this were to happen, Spartans fans can start daydreaming about bowl game destinations, even if it might be just 90 miles down I-96.
But even if the Spartans play well, Iowa is still a good team and maybe a very good team. At this point in the Jonathan Smith rebuild, even an very good effort from Michigan State at home might not be good enough to reverse the current losing streak.
Even though the Spartans are the underdogs, a loss to Iowa would still be a let down. All the momentum gained in the first three weeks of the season would knocked down like a house of cards. Spartans fans have expressed a lot of patience during the current losing streak, but there are a few who have been climbing up the walls.
At the risk of sounding like a paranoid android, another loss will start to feel like the program in back in limbo. Less patient fans might start to get the knives out for the coaching staff.
Perhaps this view is a little too pessimistic. I might be wrong about that. But either way, Friday night it yet another big game for the young Jonathan Smith era. The fate of the season may hang in the balance, and the outcome is hard to predict.
Michigan State Prediction
That said, let's try to make a prediction.
For context, the Michigan State/Iowa series is one of the more balanced and competitive ones involving the core group of "original" Big Ten schools. The Hawkeyes lead the overall series 25-22-2, but it has been a back-and-forth affair.
The Spartans had the early advantage in the series, posting a record of 10-5-1 between 1953 and 1978. Iowa then turned the tables by winning 11 of the next 16 contests between 1979 and 1996. Since 1999, the Hawkeyes hold a slim 9-8 lead, including the two most recent games, both of which were played in Iowa City.
Michigan State went just 1-6 against the spread (ATS) versus Iowa in the first decade of this century, but since 2010 the record ATS is an even 4-4. There have been only three upsets in the series since 2001. The Spartans (+7) upset the Hawkeyes in East Lansing in 2003, but Iowa was able to stun the Spartans as a three-point home dog in 2007 and as a nine-point underdog in East Lansing in 2012.
As a general rule, this series has slightly favored both the home team and the favored team over the past 25 years. But this year, those two factors are in opposition. The line for Saturday night's game in Spartan Stadium opened with Michigan State as a 5.5-point underdog.
The historical odds give Michigan State a 35% shot at pulling the upset. The last time the Spartans faced the Hawkeyes in Spartan Stadium as an underdog, Michigan State won (in 2003). That's the good news.
The bad news is that my computer is way less confident in Michigan State, or more precisely, my computer has way more confidence in Iowa. While the pollsters do not current have Iowa in the top 25, the Hawkeyes currently sit at No. 8 in my computer's power poll.
Based on this ranking, my computer's official prediction is a final score of Iowa 29, Michigan State 15.
Whatever computer.
I make it my general policy to always go with the prediction of my machine. Would it be bad luck to break that policy? At the risk of angering the karma police, I am going to go for it. I say Michigan State finds a way to pull this one out. Hopefully this is more than just a nice dream.
Michigan State 24, Iowa 21.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Eight, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Eight, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
A total of four Big Ten teams have a bye in Week Eight, including two of the top three contenders in No. 2 Ohio State and No. 9 Penn State. This leaves six contests outside of Saturday's night game in East Lansing, and five of them have spreads of eight points or less.
The only game expected to be a blowout is No. 10 Oregon's trip to West Lafayette to face No. 92 Purdue (+27.5). Both computers are picking Purdue to cover. Considering that this will be Oregon's first long flight to the Midwest this year, I am OK with this analysis.
I once projected No. 11 USC as a potential dark horse conference contender, but the Trojans are just 1-3 so far in Big Ten play, despite their high standing in my power rankings. No. 49 Maryland is off to an even tougher 0-3 start. One of teams will taste victory this weekend as the Terrapins host USC (-8).
No. 64 Rutgers (1-2) and No. 82 UCLA (0-4) also find themselves near the bottom of the Big Ten standings. The Scarlet Knights (-7) host the Bruins with hopes of climbing back to .500.
A few weeks ago, I thought that No. 25 Wisconsin's season was ready to give up the ghost, but back-to-back 35-plus point wins have enabled the Badgers to creep up in my Big Ten leaderboard. Wisconsin (-7.5) is favored to add another win to this weekend at No. 59 Northwestern.
The No. 15 Indiana Hoosiers are one of the surprise teams nationally this year with a record of 6-0, but they accomplished this by playing the 108th toughest schedules in the FBS. Based on my computer's calculations, this is the second easiest schedule to date in the Power Four ahead of only No. 66 Syracuse.
Indiana faces the toughest challenge of the season so far as they host No. 16 Nebraska (+5.5). The FPI is picking the Hoosiers to cover while my computer prefers corn.
The most competitive game on the Big Ten schedule this weekend is projected to take place in Champaign, Ill. as the No. 46 Illini host No. 34 Michigan (pick'em). Both teams have already taken a conference loss, and the loser on Saturday will not be feeling OK about the chances to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. The computers both are picking Michigan by a nose.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football field in Week Eight. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conference as well as the Group of Five contenders that are in the hunt for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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Last week provided clarity in the Big Ten race and this week the spot light is on the SEC. You would likely need to be a subterranean homesick alien not to realize that the biggest game of the weekend is No. 1 Texas playing host to No. 8 Georgia (+3.5).
The Longhorns can strengthen their hold at the top of the SEC leaderboard with a win, while Georgia could be in danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely. The computers both like Texas to cover.
No. 4 Alabama has struggled to put teams away since beating Georgia in Week Five. This week the Crimson Tide travels to No. 12 Tennessee (+1.5) in what could be an elimination game for SEC Championship Game contention.
As for the other SEC contenders, No. 23 Texas A&M is a big favorite at No. 60 Mississippi State (+14) while No. 26 LSU is expected to have a stiffer challenge at No. 45 Arkansas (+3). No. 20 Missouri is a touchdown favorite versus No. 77 Auburn while No. 5 Mississippi is taking the week off.
In Big 12 action, the top two team are at home this week and both teams are strong favorites. No. 3 Iowa State (-12.5) hosts No. 54 UCF, while No. 14 BYU (-7.5) hosts Oklahoma State. My computer expects both favorites to cover comfortably.
Farther down the standings, No. 17 Kansas State is trying to stay within whispering and not shouting distance of Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats travel to No. 43 West Virginia (+2.5) in a game that should be a tight one.
No. 33 Colorado will also attempt to maintain position as a conference contender. The Buffalos travel to No. 71 Arizona (-3.5) and both computers project an upset win for Colorado.
We are also likely to see some separation in the ACC this week. No. 13 Miami has the best odds to make the ACC Championship Game, but the Hurricanes face their toughest challenge of year at No. 22 Louisville (+4). The computers both have Miami winning, but not covering.
According to my machine, No. 38 Southern Methodist is the second most likely team to reach the ACC Championship Game. The Mustangs travel to Palo Alto to face No. 94 Stanford (+14). SMU is likely to get the win and they likely attempt to verify that the Stanford tree is both fake and plastic.
In other ACC action, my computer currently has no confidence in No. 40 Clemson being a real conference contender. That could change if the Tigers can win impressively versus No. 61 Virginia (+21). No. 19 Virginia Tech also hope to stay in the conference chase versus No. 42 Boston College (+7).
No. 6 Notre Dame is not a full ACC members, but the Irish host No. 52 Georgia Tech (+8) this week. After the Week Two loss to No. 78 Northern Illinois, Notre Dame seemed to not belong here in the playoff discussion. But over the last few weeks the Irish have crept back into the conversation. If they were to win out, they might still have a shot. My computer tells me that those odds are just 28%.
In Group of Five action, the top four teams in the American Athletic Conference are all double-digit favorites including No. 31 Army (-15.5), No. 52 Navy (-16.5), No. 32 Tulane (-22), and No. 30 Memphis (-10.5). All four teams should live to compete for a college playoff berth another day.
No. 29 James Madison (-9) faces a big challenge on the road at No. Georgia Southern while No. 48 UNLV has a tricky matchup at No. 74 Oregon State (+5). No. 35 Boise State is on a bye.
If Vegas is correct with the spread, No. 63 Western Kentucky is in danger of falling out of the chase for a playoff berth. The Hill Toppers are two-point underdogs at No. 81 San Houston State. My computer senses an upset.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Now it is time to dig deeper into the numbers. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Eight. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Eight. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Eight. |
My computer selected nine total upset picks this week, five of which the FPI agrees with. The most notable upset picks are Colorado over Arizona, Baylor over Texas Tech, South Carolina over Oklahoma, and Kentucky over Florida.
A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 16.7 plus-or-minus 3.3 upsets out of 59 games is most likely. This value is over two upsets more than has been predicted in any week so far this year.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Eight. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer did better than OK with picks against the spread last week, and it is back this week with seven more selections, one of which the FPI supports. The notable picks here are for Vanderbilt (-26), Texas (-3.5), and Virginia (+21) all to cover.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Eight. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer gives only seven point-total bets this week, only two of which are locks. Some notable bets here are for Georgia and Texas to score less than 55.5 points together and for Michigan and Illinois to combine for more than 42.5 points.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. While I wish my advice was bullet proof, I hope that it at least does not leave you high and dry. I hope that my analysis means that there will be no surprises. Enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out. Cue the exit music.
Social Media Copy
Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson)'s advice had been better than just OK over the last few weeks. That is what you get when you subscribe with us. Find out how his computer views the action this week as well as MSU's chances against Iowa.
While I wish that my advice was bullet proof, it should at least not leave you high and dry. Check out this week's Bad Betting Advice where I "talk in maths" and try to evade the karma police. This is what you get when I am still on the payroll.
The fall season has really crept up on us, hasn't it? It is hard to believe that we are already halfway through the college football season. The advice from my computer was been better than just OK so far this year, and I hope to see that trend continue on the betting front.
My computer is not optimistic about MSU's chances this week. I have a feeling that the well-rested Spartans might have a surprise in store for the Hawkeyes. Is it bad luck to go against my computer? We are about to find out.
While I wish that my advice was bullet proof, it should at least not leave you high and dry. Check out this week's Bad Betting Advice where I "talk in maths" and try to evade the karma police. This is what you get when I am still on the payroll.
I hope that it is obvious that I went with a Radiohead theme this week. After hitting some 70s rock in Week Three, I decided it was time to flex my Gen X muscles a bit. Here's a fun fact: I saw Radiohead open for R.E.M. at Breslin in (I think) the spring of 1995. It was awesome.
Anyway, please enjoy this week's dose of Bad Betting Advice.
Radiohead References
I hit at least 25 references. Ha!
OK Computer
2+2=5
Creep
Fake plastic trees
I wish I was bullet proof
black star
climbing up the walls
daydreaming
down is the new up
cue the exit music
amnesiac
bends
give up the ghost
high and dry
house of cards
how to completely disappear
I might be wrong
In limbo
Kid A
Just
Karma Police
Knives out
let down
million dollar question
my iron lung
no surprises
the numbers
optimistic
paranoid android
stop whispering
Subterranean Homesick Alien
He talks in maths
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