[NOTE: I originally posted this on Sunday afternoon, but I some realized that one of my formulas had an error. I accidentally used MSU's power ranking at the end of the 2019 season instead of the preseason ranking in my calculations of point spreads. This drove up MSU's win probabilities, especially for the ESPN data set. This also explains why my calculation of expected wins based on ESPN's data was different than their calculation. Those calculations now match. I have now updated this post with the more accurate data and updated the narrative and my analysis accordingly. My overall predictions remain essentially the same, but the outlook for MSU is a little worse than in the original version, so my picks are now a bit more optimistic. But, that's how I roll... Anyway, I am sorry for the confusion. I HATE putting what I consider to be bad data out there. To the best of my knowledge and mathematical ability, the following analysis is now "correct".] As the t