Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

It may not seem like it this time of year, but I am actually a bigger college basketball fan than I am a college football fan. A big reason why goes all the way back to my childhood when I developed an absolute love of March Madness. But, because I am kind of a nerd, I was originally almost drawn to the bracket more than the actual games. Almost. I loooove brackets. More recently, I have discovered a love of bracketology as well. Not in a Joe Lunardi kind of way, but more in a DIY kind of way. A few years back, I stared to do my own bracketology every March. I take it so seriously that I will specifically avoid Joe Lunardi or anyone else’s work such that it does not “contaminate” my own thinking. So, three years ago, when the new Football Playoff System was announced, complete with 4 additional games with would involve complex selection criteria, I was pretty excited. When I realized that I could utilize my spreadsheet and rankings to do further analysis on the season, leading up

3-9 to 9-3. What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, I think all MSU fans were simply glad that it was over. 2016 was a humbling experience, both for the fans and for the team. Sometimes, it is tough to be an MSU fan, and the culture of the University community can be a strange one. Basically, for those of us 30 or older, we pretty much always expect (at least in the back of our minds) that something bad is going to happen, or that the floor is just about ready to drop out from under us. MSU’s football program wandered in the desert for 40 years before Mark Dantonio arrived. After last year, I think many fans, even the most optimistic of us (present company included), had the thought, “Is this the end? Are we back to just being a mediocre program?” Some of these thoughts weren’t really thoughts at all. They were actual whispers from a fan-base of a certain school located in Washtenaw County. You see, while MSU was wandering in the dessert, they were busy writing their o

Well, this is it folks: the end of the road. With Week 13, we have reached the final stop on the journey that has been the 2017 regular football season. Back in August, I estimated that based on preseason predictions and a fair amount of math that MSU had only a 48% chance to get to 6 wins. There was a thought that MSU would be rolling into this week’s game at Rutgers needing a road victory to ensure another month of practice. In that universe, it would have been the biggest game of the year. But, MSU beat the odds this year, by a mile. The same math said MSU had only an 18% chance to get to 8 wins or more, and only a 9% chance to win 9 or more.  Considering the spreads opened at MSU -11, my math now says that 9% chance of 9 wins has ballooned to 78%. Not bad for a season’s work. When the season began, MSU’s bucket was pretty empty, and as the season progressed the Spartans have filled it will some wonderful and surprising memories: a grinding win over Iowa, silencing the Ann Arbor Ci

We have a long way to go until March, but I am always interested in the geography of the tournament. In the past decade or so, the committee has prioritized the idea of keeping teams close to home.  As we look at the possible locations where MSU could be playing, we can already start to make some predictions First, to me it looks quite likely that MSU will get to play in Detroit in the first two rounds. Even if the team stumbles a little, as long as they stay in the Top 10 or so, Detroit is very likely.  The reason is that if you look at the other possible sites, Detroit won't be the closest pod to very many other teams. Those sites are: Pittsburgh, PA  Wichita, KS Dallas, TX  Boise, ID Charlotte, NC Detroit, MI  Nashville, TN San Diego, CA If we look at the current Top 25, only Purdue and Notre Dame would likely prefer Detroit. Cincinnati and Xavier are also possibilities, but they might prefer Pittsburgh.  Of course, the worst case is the dreaded 4

I like the winter time. I really do. I like snow. It’s pretty. It’s bright. It reflects the sunlight on those dark, December and January days when the number of daylight hours are limited. If it were up to me, some flurries in the air during Senior Day in Spartan Stadium is just about perfect ever year. That is what Big Ten football is all about in the month of November.  What I don’t like, however, is a cold rain. As I learned on Saturday, cold rain, followed by snow and wind, is a pretty brutal combination, and for the second time in two trips, I didn’t make it to the final whistle. It was, simply put, the worst weather conditions the I can remember experiencing as a fan in the past 25 years. So, no Terry, is was not exactly a beautiful day for football. Furthermore, it was not a beautiful day for the passing game. In the 3 quarters that I saw live, I think the number of total completed passes could have been counted on one hand, and at least one of those was an MSU shovel pass. But

Remember how last week, we were all so excited? It wasn’t just because MSU had a chance to maybe win the Big Ten East. It was also because there were so many potentially good and high impact games in pretty much every conference. It was really a pretty good weekend of football, you know, unless you happen to be an MSU or Notre Dame fan. Well, this weekend is shaping up to be… less interesting, pretty much from east to west and all places in between. As for MSU, the Maryland Terrapins are coming to town for Senior Day and MSU is a 17-point favorite. Ironically, this is the exact opening spread that MSU faced last week as the underdog in Columbus. Also similar to last week, the biggest variable would seem to be the emotional state of the home team. Will MSU come out mad, focused, and ready to kick some shell? Or, will the ghosts of Buckeyes running away from them into the end zone be dancing in their heads? Hopefully, the mental state and the end result will mirror that of the favored t

I mentioned this a little in my weekly recap, but I have been thinking out this a little more since then and I am now even more convinced. If MSU wins out to go 9-3, by far the most likely destination is Tampa to play in the Outback Bowl. Here is my logic: If we consider the possibility of no major upsets in the final two weeks, Big Ten teams will finish with the following records: Wisconsin: 12-0 Ohio State: 10-2 Penn State: 10-2 MSU: 9-3 Northwestern 9-3 Iowa: 8-4 Michigan: 8-4 No other team over 6-6 If this were to happen, Wisconsin would certainly be in the NY6, and likely the playoffs with a win over OSU in Indy. Also, based on a comparison to the other potentially eligible team, a 10-2 Penn State team is very likely to finish either 10th or 11th at worst, which also puts them in the NY6. Ohio State is a bit of a wild card. If they win the B1G, they will stay in the NY6, if they lose to drop to 10-3, then they are borderline. One factor is the Orange Bowl. If a B1G team is selecte

So, Saturday’s MSU game could have gone better. In fact, it is hard to imagine how it could have gone worse. OK, that is not really true as we could have had a rash of injuries and Coach D could have had a second heart attack. #smallvictories. Coming into the game, like many others, I thought that there was a 50% chance that OSU was going to come in deflated and fractured, and MSU would be sharp, motivated, and maybe even too young to really understand the true size of the stage. Thus, it could be a close that game that MSU might even be able to win. The other 50% chance was that OSU would come in very, very angry and the game could get pretty ugly for MSU. Well… we now have our answer as to which side up that coin landed.  Now, it is easy to say that “Vegas knew something,” as the spread was -17. That was a little high, but based on my math, -12 would have been better, and that is not a huge difference. Historical numbers show that the Vegas line is really good at predicting the fin