Remember how last week, we were all so excited? It wasn’t
just because MSU had a chance to maybe win the Big Ten East. It was also
because there were so many potentially good and high impact games in pretty much
every conference. It was really a pretty good weekend of football, you know,
unless you happen to be an MSU or Notre Dame fan. Well, this weekend is shaping
up to be… less interesting, pretty much from east to west and all places in between.
As for MSU, the Maryland Terrapins are coming to town for Senior Day and MSU is
a 17-point favorite. Ironically, this is the exact opening spread that MSU
faced last week as the underdog in Columbus. Also similar to last week, the
biggest variable would seem to be the emotional state of the home team. Will MSU come out mad, focused, and ready to kick some shell? Or, will
the ghosts of Buckeyes running away from them into the end zone be dancing in
their heads? Hopefully, the mental state and the end result will mirror that of
the favored team last week. Mathematically, the 17-point spread translates to an
89% chance that MSU’s Seniors will go out on top in their final game in East
Lansing. My spreadsheet agrees and actually likes MSU by slightly more (18.8
points). As for Maryland, I am not sure if I have even watched a single snap
from them all year. So all I can really tell you is that they started the
season 2-0, including a win over Texas, and have since lost 6 of 8, including a
7-point point loss to Rutgers. I also hear that they are on something like
their 6th string QB and their head coach is DJ Durkin, who is kind
of a d-bag. So, add that all up and all I really say is this: MSU, just don’t
screw this up. You have a great chance to literally flip your win-loss record
from last year and cement yourselves as the biggest comeback story of the
college football season. It is all well
within your grasp. Get it done.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above compares the opening Vegas spread
to my spreadsheet’s predictions. The
ho-hum nature of the week is essentially captured by the lack of anything interesting
to point out. My spreadsheet does like 6 highlighted covers: Auburn, PSU, Notre
Dame, Boise State, Miami, and Iowa State, and it also likes 5 upsets, only one
of which is in the Power 5: Texas A&M over Ole Miss. ESPN’s FPI also likes
that pick as one of only two upsets that it is forecasting. My simulation of
the week suggests that we will see 12.5 ± 3.0 upsets, which is certainly down
from the last several weeks. At least Rand()y is having some fun, as he picked
some interesting upsets this week, including Temple over UCF, Baylor over Iowa
State, and Texas Tech over TCU. Wouldn’t that be something! Now, let’s take a
quick spin around the country and try to find at least some nominally
interesting games.
Big Ten
As is the case with much of the nation, there is not much
drama left in the Big Ten. While it is still mathematically possible for a team
other than Ohio State to win the East, the Buckeyes can eliminate all but one
other team by simply winning this weekend. Their opponent? 2-8 Illinois. The
location? Columbus. The opening spread? 38.5. The odds of an upset? 0.1%. As
for that one remaining team with a chance, that would be none other than the
Michigan Wolverines, who still have a microscopically narrow path to Indy. To
get there, they need to do one thing they haven’t done all year, and that’s
beat a team with a winning record. Moreover, they will need to do something
that they haven’t done in a decade, and that’s beat a ranked team on the road.
The team in question is the West Division Champ and undefeated Wisconsin
Badgers, who opened as 10-point favorites. This suggests UofM only has a 24%
chance to win, and the Badgers will certainly be motivated not to screw-up
their shot at the playoffs. I must admit, I am curious to see how Wisconsin’s running
attack matches up against Michigan’s defense. If nothing else, this is likely
the biggest national game of the weekend. Michigan fans will also need to root
for both MSU and Penn State to drop one game each before the end of the season
to remain mathematically in the race for Indy. The Lions (-23) play Nebraska
this week, so that seems like a tall order to fill. The only other things to
watch for are team that still need to get to 6-wins, and that is an uphill
climb for half of the conference. The team with the best chance this week is
Minnesota, but a road game in Evanston against the Wildcats (-6.5) will not be
easy. Purdue can’t get to 6 wins this week, but if they can’t win at Iowa
(-8.5), they will hit 7 loses. To round out the action either Rutgers or
Indiana (-11) will get to 5 wins this weekend in Bloomington.
ACC
Last week solidified that the ACC title will be decided when
Miami faces off against Clemson in early December. In the meantime, there is
not a lot going on. Clemson decided to pretend they were an SEC team, as they
play an FCS team this week (The Citadel). Miami is at least playing a conference
foe in Virginia (+17) and the Canes will attempt to avoid screwing
up their perfect record and shot at the playoffs. As for “Bowl
Watch,” Boston College will reach 6 wins if they can beat UCONN (+21), which is
quite likely, and Georgia Tech (-5.5) can do the same at Duke. Even Florida
State is likely to hobble one step close to 6 wins by playing Delaware
State. On the other side of the coin,
Pitt and Syracuse will both mostly likely pick up a 7th loss this
weekend at VA Tech (-17) and Louisville (-13) respectively.
Big 12
After last week’s action, Oklahoma is a virtual lock for the
New and Completely Unnecessary Big 12 Championship Game. If the Sooners beat Kansas
(+35), they will be an actual lock. TCU is in good shape to join them, but they
will need to pass their final road test of the regular season at Texas Tech
(+6). That spread is shockingly close to me, and I think that I read TCU's starting QB is out. Despite having 2 losses, I think
TCU could still sneak into the playoffs but they can’t screw-up this week if
they want to stay on that path. The Red
Raiders would get a 6th win with an upset. Similarly, both Texas and
Kansas State are looking for their 6th win of the season, but they
both have tough assignments as the Longhorns travel to West Virginia (-3) and
K-State travels to Stillwater to face the Cowboys (-21). With just 2 losses OK
State is trying to avoid screwing up an outside shot at a NY6 Bowl.
Pac 12
After last week, Pac 12, you are lucky I am even typing about
you at all. USC already had the South Division locked at and they look to run
their conference record to 8-1 this weekend with a match-up with UCLA (+15) in
the Colosseum. Up North, Washington essentially played themselves out of the
title picture last week. The Huskies hope to bounce back this weekend against
Utah (-17.5). But, if Stanford can beat Cal (+17.5) in the “The Game,” Washington will be mathematically eliminated from any chance to win the
Division. In Bowl Watch, currently there are a total of six Pac 12 teams
sitting on 5 wins. Cal, Utah, and UCLA are three of them, and they are clearly
not expected to get to 6 wins this week. Arizona State has the best shot at 6-wins
with their game at Oregon State (+6.5), and Oregon (pick’em) has a 50-50 shot
vs. Arizona. 5-win Colorado will have to
wait until next, as they are on a bye.
SEC
With last week’s win by Auburn over Georgia, the SEC West is
suddenly a real race. To celebrate, Bama and Auburn are snacking on some
cupcakes (Mercer and UL Monroe) before the teams square off in the Iron Bowl in
2 weeks. Georgia has long since locked up the East and the Bulldogs are looking
to get a little mojo back against Kentucky (+22). In SEC Bowl watch, there are
still 6 teams currently under the 6-win mark.
Despite being at home, Vanderbilt (+7.5) is an underdog to Missouri. If
the Tigers win, they reach 6 wins. Conversely for the Commodores, it could be
the dreaded 7th loss. LSU (-14) will also try to deal Tennessee
their 7th loss, which only seems fitting in Brady Hoke’s debut as
interim coach. Similarly, Mississippi State (-11.5) is expected to eliminate
Arkansas from bowl consideration. In perhaps the most competitive game on the
SEC schedule this week, Ole Miss (-2.5) will try to become bowl eligible vs.
Texas A&M.
Independents / Group of Five
Notre Dame may have screwed up their shot at the playoffs
last week, but the Irish still have a great shot to reach a NY6 Bowl. To get
there, however, a win over Navy (+18.5) will be needed. As for the Group of Five, a few select teams
are also in “don’t screw up” mode. UCF
has their final road game at Temple (+14) and Memphis can officially clinch the
AAC West with a win over SMU (+11.5). Thursday night, USF managed to
beat Tulsa to keep the Bulls in the conversation. Finally, Boise State is
looking to go 7-0 in conference play as they play Air Force (+17.5) this
weekend. At this point, it would take an awful lot of screw-ups for the Broncos
to make it to the Peach Bowl.
That is all for now. As always, Go State, Beat the Terrapins.
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