3-9 to 9-3. What a difference a year makes. Last year at
this time, I think all MSU fans were simply glad that it was over. 2016 was a
humbling experience, both for the fans and for the team. Sometimes, it is tough
to be an MSU fan, and the culture of the University community can be a strange one.
Basically, for those of us 30 or older, we pretty much always expect (at least
in the back of our minds) that something bad is going to happen, or that the
floor is just about ready to drop out from under us. MSU’s football program
wandered in the desert for 40 years before Mark Dantonio arrived. After last
year, I think many fans, even the most optimistic of us (present company
included), had the thought, “Is this the end? Are we back to just being a
mediocre program?” Some of these thoughts weren’t really thoughts at all. They
were actual whispers from a fan-base of a certain school located in Washtenaw
County. You see, while MSU was wandering in the dessert, they were busy writing
their own script of how the football world worked. It is a well-crafted story
about leather helmets, 10-year wars, Heisman Trophies, academic integrity, “legendary”
coaches, and crowns. Strangely, a few details seem to have been left out of that narrative, such as Bowl records, General Studies, the fact that the Heisman is
given out in December and not September, and that the crown was on the field in
Eugene and not on the head of the naked Emperor. If you are looking for that
script, it can be found in your local library in the fantasy section. But, based on that script, a script that some people are desperate to believe,
MSU was a dead program in the Fall of 2016. That was the narrative that we all heard on the radio, at the water cooler, and even in our own head. Well, I am pleased to announce that
the death of MSU’s football program, much to the chagrin of the rest of the Big
Ten, has been greatly exaggerated. It may have escaped the notice of many
outside of East Lansing, but the script that describes MSU’s program got
flipped a long time ago. Like any good
drama, our heroes have their ups and down, and adversity is necessary to truly
enjoy success. But 2017 taught us (when it really should have been just a reminder) is that MSU
is not a 3-9 program, it is a 9-3 program even during a rebuilding year. Coming
into the year, MSU was picked by most experts to finish 6-6. Those that thought
we would be home for the holidays were pessimists. Those that thought we would
find a way to make a Bowl Game were optimists. But, it was the group of fans
out there (and there are a few) that thought we could win 9 or 10 games that
were correct. By my count that makes them the realists, and this should also be
lesson to all of us who doubted, even for a moment.
As for the game this weekend, it really wasn’t much of one…
after a fashion. I must admit that I did not expect Matt Coghlin to be named
the “most unstoppable player” mid-way through the 3rd quarter, and I
certainly did not expect to hold Rutgers to a historically low offensive
output, yet still be nervous in the 4th quarter. That was kind of
weird. But, much like the rest of the season, it was still very satisfying in
the end. For now, MSU gets to wait another week to learn its holiday
destination, but as I have been saying for a few weeks now, the Outback Bowl in
Tampa is the most likely destination and based on the results in the SEC this
week, LSU looks increasingly like the opponent. It will an intriguing conclusion in
the latest act of this page-turning script that is Mark Dantonio’s Spartans.
National Overview
As is my usual procedure, the chart above displays the
results of this week’s action relative to the opening Vegas spread. It wound up
being a pretty interesting week, as it turns out, with less than half of the
games finishing with the final differential within 10 points of the opening spread.
There seem to have been a surprising large number of blow-out wins by the
favored team, including Penn State, Oregon, Northwestern, Wisconsin, MSU,
Washington, LSU, Louisville, Iowa, Boston College, and Florida State all covering
easily. On the flip side, only Eastern Michigan failed to cover significantly,
yet still won.
As for upsets, as the chart and the Table above shows, there were
a total of 14 upsets (one off of the 15 my simulation predicted), and several
of them were obviously huge from the national point of view. Auburn’s upset of
Bama and Pitt’s upset of Miami were obviously newsworthy, as was Stanford’s upset of
Notre Dame. Also notable were Ole Miss’ upset of Mississippi State, Duke’s
upset of Wake Forest, Texas Tech’s upset of Texas, Fresno State’s upset of
Boise State, and Vandy’s upset of Tennessee. As for my spreadsheet’s
performance, it was not a great week. For highlighted covers, it only went 1-3
(67-60, 53% for the year) and 32-30 overall against the spread (358-362, 49.7%
overall). For upsets, it only went 1-4 to finish the regular season at 40-51
(44%). As for ESPN’s FPI, it went 34-28 for the week ATS and on the season, I
have it at 382-337 (53.1%) which is honestly pretty good. As for upsets, the FPI
nailed the Stanford upset and went 1-1 this week to finish at an even 27-27
(50%). I make a habit of dogging the FPI. I think their methods are very
questionable, and the metric seems overly conservative, but I have to tip my
hat to its actual performance this year. I consider finishing above 500 ATS and
above 40% for upsets to be my benchmark and it beat both of those
measures. As for Rand()y, he limped to
the finish line with a 4-11 performance this week to finish 59-104 (36.2%)
overall. This was the first year I attempted the random number generated
predictions, and I think that it serves as a nice control experiment to test
how good (or bad) certain metric are. At least my actual spreadsheet
predictions could outperform it. Now, let’s take a final quick spin around the country
to look at the regional action.
Big Ten
As I was writing the preview for this week’s action, I
noticed that while most of the games had big spreads, all but one of the games
had the favored team traveling to play on the road, in most cases, against a
hated rival. One would think this would be a Hollywood-style script for a
crazy, upset-filled weekend, right? Uh, not so much. As it turns out, all 7
favored teams won, all of them covered, and most of them won in blow-out
fashion. In the most important game of the weekend, the Battle for the Old
Oaken Bucket, the Purdue Boilermakers flipped the recent script of losing to the
Hoosiers, and in the process secured themselves 15 more practices and maybe
even a trip to Detroit Rock City for the Holidays. BOILER UP! (Actually, they
are likely headed to Pinstripe Bowl, I would guess). As for the Once Every Ten
Years War, it appears that Ohio State let Michigan get a bit of a lead on them,
sort of like you do when you are playing your little brother in basketball, and
then they just came back and took it back. The result is that the
#sameoldwolverines finished at 5-4, good for 4th in the East, with
no wins over any team over 0.500, and a distant 2-3 games behind the Big 3 of
OSU, PSU, and MSU.
SEC
I hate to admit this, but I kind of wanted Bama to beat
Auburn. I am usually a root-for-the-underdog kind of guy, and I have no love
for the Tide (even though you have to admit there are an awful lot of
ex-Spartans on their staff), but I flipped my usual script this week because I do not want to see 2 SEC teams in
the playoffs. That would be distasteful. The best way to get that result would
be if Bama were to have won the SEC outright. But, Auburn had to go and screw
that up, and now the committee is going to be placed in a very interesting situation
come Sunday morning. More on that later in the week. Elsewhere in the SEC,
there were couple of other notable results. First, Ole Miss upset Mississippi
State on Thanksgiving evening. This brought the Rebels up to 6-6 and bowl
eligibility and actually created some decent separation in the SEC West that
should help clarify the bowl pecking order. Also helping this cause was LSU’s
defeat of Texas A&M, which left the Aggies at 7-5 and suddenly, without a
coach. In the “funny” category, I would also point out that Vandy upset
Tennessee, and the ACC went 3-1 in the annual SEC-ACC cross-sectional battles
this week. Weird that you didn’t hear much about that stat this weekend, right?
SEC… SEC… SEC....
Pac 12
Out West, let’s just say it was a story-book-ending kind of weekend for Stanford.
Not only did the Cardinal upset Notre Dame (which does the Cardinal little to no
good, but certainly does hurt the Irish), but Washington demolished Wazzou
which puts Stanford in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game rematch with USC. The winner is almost certainly bound for the Fiesta Bowl. Also, Cal lost to UCLA, which I am
sure also makes the Cardinal giggle just a little. With the win, UCLA joined Utah in becoming
bowl eligible. The organizers of the Catcus and Los Vegas Bowls were watching
both games closely.
ACC
Based on the Vegas spread, there were two upsets in the ACC,
and one of them will impact the overall bowl picture. The one with the impact
is not the one you think it is. It was Duke’s upset of Wake Forest, which elevates
the Devil’s record to 6-6 and Bowl eligibility. Which game did you think I was
going to reference? Oh, probably Pitt’s upset of Miami, right? Well, other that
the fact that this probably increases the chances that Pat Narduzzi will be MSU’s
next football coach, this really changes little, if anything in the big
picture. The winner of next week’s Clemson-Miami ACC Title game is going to the
playoffs and the loser is going to the Orange Bowl. If anything, they just made
the committee’s job easier. Either way, I don’t think they were going to take 2
ACC teams, and now they don’t need to fret about it.
Big 12
The script on the Great Plains this week, was flat out just a boring read.
Most of the favorites won and the TCU-Oklahoma rematch in the New and
Completely Unnecessary Big 12 Championship Game is now set. The only upset was
Texas Tech’s win over Texas, which brought both teams to rest at records of
6-6. As it turns out, enough teams won in upset fashion nationwide this week
that it looks to me like there will be enough 0.500 teams to fill all 80 Bowl
slots this year. Sorry Indiana, Minnesota, GA Tech, Pitt, Cal, Colorado, and
Vandy. Enjoy the extra holiday time with your families, unless, of course, you
are a on the coaching staff of one of those team and then I would suggest updating your resume.
Independents / Group of Five
For a while there, it really looked like Notre Dame was
headed for NY6 Bowl Game if not the playoffs. But, the Irish hit a late season
buzz-saw in the final three weeks. With this week’s loss at Stanford, I don’t
expect to see Notre Dame in the Top 10 or 11. With the Irish dropping out, I
think that Penn State is now a lock for the NY6, which is good news for
Northwestern, as they will probably get a trip to Orlando as a result. As for
the Group of Five, the Knights of Central Florida defeated their instate rivals,
South Florida (that is probably a rivalry, right?) to win the AAC East and a
trip to the American Athletic Conference Championship Game against Memphis, a
team that they already beat once this year by 27. If they can stick the that script,
they earn a trip to the Peach Bowl. If the Knights lose to the Tigers, Memphis
will take their place. There was a slim,
slim chance that Boise State might have been able to jump Memphis, but the
Bronco lost to Fresno State this weekend to drop to 9-3 and out of contention.
Finally, If the Season Ended Today, That Would Be Weird….
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