2017, Week 13 Preview (Bucket Lists)

Well, this is it folks: the end of the road. With Week 13, we have reached the final stop on the journey that has been the 2017 regular football season. Back in August, I estimated that based on preseason predictions and a fair amount of math that MSU had only a 48% chance to get to 6 wins. There was a thought that MSU would be rolling into this week’s game at Rutgers needing a road victory to ensure another month of practice. In that universe, it would have been the biggest game of the year. But, MSU beat the odds this year, by a mile. The same math said MSU had only an 18% chance to get to 8 wins or more, and only a 9% chance to win 9 or more.  Considering the spreads opened at MSU -11, my math now says that 9% chance of 9 wins has ballooned to 78%. Not bad for a season’s work. When the season began, MSU’s bucket was pretty empty, and as the season progressed the Spartans have filled it will some wonderful and surprising memories: a grinding win over Iowa, silencing the Ann Arbor Circus Train on a rainy evening in Ann Arbor, the 4^th quarter come-back against the Hoosiers, the walk-off FG to beat Penn State in the longest football contest of all time (probably), and suffocating of Maryland as the snow fell on Spartan Stadium last week. As the bucket filled up, so did MSU’s trophy case, with a spittoon, a lumberjack, and… whatever-the-heck-the land-grant trophy is. It has been a tremendously satisfying and affirming season. The Dantonio system still works, and much like coach Izzo, as long as he stays in East Lansing, double digit wins will be the rule and not the exception As for a double-digit win this season, that is the last item on MSU’s Bucket List. To get it, they are going to have to survive this week’s trip to lovely Piscataway, NJ and beat a Rutgers team that is… not as terrible as usual. Hey, they even had their first Big Ten winning streak this year, thanks to getting to play Illinois and Purdue in back-to-back weeks. Quite honestly, Rutgers is a little hard to figure out. They did win 3 B1G games so far, including a win over Maryland 3 weeks ago. They also played Washington tough in Week 1. Then again, they also lost to Eastern Michigan in Week 2 and have lost their last two games by a combined score of 76-6.  Win 7 loses, they don’t seem to have much left to play for, but Senior Day on the road is always a little scary, and it would behoove MSU not to sleepwalk through this one. But, as stated before, this season has shown that Mark Dantonio is still Mark Dantonio, and this is flat out a game that Coach does not lose. A loss would be like a bucket of cold water, but it is not what I would expect. I expect to be watching MSU try for a 10-win season against an SEC team in Florida on New Year’s Day.

National Overview

 As usual, the chart above shows a comparison of my spreadsheet’s predictions for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spreads.  I thought last week’s chart was a bit boring, but it was a Marvel Superhero Movie compared to this week’s chart. I only have 4 highlighted covers and 5 upset picks and all but 3 involve only Group of 5 teams. The notable games being TCU and Oklahoma State (not shown) to cover, and Iowa State and Utah St. in upset wins. As the table below shows, the FPI only likes 2 upsets, but one of them is Stanford over Notre Dame, which is certainly intriguing.  The upset simulation, however, suggests to expect 15.1 ± 3.2 upsets, which certainly has Rand()y excited. In its final act of defiance for the regular season, Rand()y picked Michigan to upset OSU and Indiana to beat Purdue. I think I will change the code a little next year just out of spite. Now, let’s take one last spin around the country.

Big Ten

It’s Rivalry Week in the Big Ten and there is one game on the schedule that everyone is talking about. It pits two hated rivals against each other and the stakes this year are higher than most. The result of this game will have major implicated for the conference’s bowl participation. I am, of course, referring to the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket: Indiana at Purdue (-3). As it stands now, the conference only has 7 teams that are bowl eligible. But, Indiana and Purdue both enter the game at 5-6, meaning the winner will become the B1G’s 8^th Bowl Eligible team. Purdue has a sizable lead in the overall series, but the Hoosiers have won 4 in a row and would love more than anything to ruin Purdue’s season and keep their beloved Bucket. It is clearly the biggest game on the schedule for the Big Ten this week. The rest of the schedule is not quite so compelling, but does include several tricky road games. Penn State’s (-21) Bucket List includes a trip to Maryland where they will hope to secure a NY6 Bowl bid to go along with their 10 wins. Wisconsin’s (-16) List includes a win in Minneapolis to ensure their first perfect regular season since 1912.  Northwestern (-15) plans on getting to 9-wins by beating up on the Illini in Champaign, which might be enough for the Citrus Bowl if things align just so.  Iowa (-2.5) is looking to bounce back after last week’s upset loss to Purdue, but they must travel to Lincoln, which is never fun, even when the Huskers are as bad as they are this year. Finally, it is barely worth mentioning, but Ohio State (-10) travels to Ann Arbor this week for a rivalry game of sorts. They have a name for it, which I think is the Once Every Ten Years War (or something like that) which refers to the frequency of which the game matters. But, they don’t actually play for a trophy, so it must not be a big deal. Ohio State was able to secure the Illibuck Trophy last week and considering that rivalry and this one have been equally dominated by the Buckeyes over the past 10-15 years (OSU is 9-1 and 13-2 in both “rivalries”), this might be a bit of a trap game for OSU before heading into the Big Ten Championship game next week.

SEC

On the national stage, there is no bigger game this week that the Iron Bowl: Alabama (-4.5) at Auburn. The winner will clinch the SEC West and will face Georgia next week with a playoff berth almost certainly on the line. Auburn cannot survive another loss and still make the playoffs, but I am not so sure the same is true for Bama. An Auburn win would seriously muck up the playoff picture in a way that is certainly not good for the rest of the Power 5. As for other games, Georgia (-10) travels to Atlanta to face GA Tech. If the Yellowjackets can score an upset, they would become Bowl Eligible and they might just knock the Bulldogs out of playoff contention. On the other side of that same coin, South Carolina (+14) hosts Clemson and has a shot to potentially ruin the Tiger’s season as well. In the Egg Bowl, which is being played as I type this, Ole Miss has upset Mississippi State (-17) and as a result is now bowl eligible. This also means that the winner of the Texas A&M at LSU (-10.5) game will be able to stake a claim as the 3^rd best team in the SEC West. Finally, Florida hosts Florida State (-4.5) in a match-up of teams with only 8 wins between them. If the Gators win, neither team will go to a bowl. I think that this rivalry needs a snappy nickname, don’t you? I am voting for “The Hilarious Bowl.”

Pac 12

There is really not a lot left to play for in the Pac 12 this year, as a berth to the Fiesta Bowl is basically the best-case scenario. But, at least there is a little drama left in Week 13. USC has won the South and is actually on a bye this week, but the North is still up for grabs. The North champ will be decided in the Apple Bowl, where Washington State will travel to Washington (-11). The winner of the game will technical earn a share of the North Title with Stanford, but only Wazzou would earn the chance to face USC for the Pac 12 Title if they win. If Washington wins, the Cardinal will meet USC next week.  Arizona plays at Arizona State this week and that game opened as a pcike’em, so that should be fun. Other than that, a total of four teams have “become bowl eligible” on their Bucket Lists for this week, and as luck would have it, they play each other. 5-6 Cal will travel to 5-6 UCLA (-8) while 5-6 Colorado will travel to 5-6 Utah (-11). It is a veritable festival of mediocrity! That seems strangely appropriate for the Pac 12 this year, so I will just leave it at that.

Big 12

Very little drama remains in the Big 12 as Oklahoma and TCU are virtual locks for the New and Completely Unnecessary Big 12 Championship Game. It might be mathematically possible for TCU to lose a tie breaker for 2^nd place, but it would require TCU to lose a home game to Baylor (+23.5) and at least also Oklahoma State losing a home game to Kansas (+40.5). So, I don’t think that is going to happen. What is slightly more likely (but still not very likely) is Oklahoma losing a home game to West Virginia (+19.5) which would which put the Sooner’s playoff hopes in jeopardy. Other than that, Texas Tech is looking to become bowl eligible with an upset at Texas (-10.5), while the closest game on paper this week is Iowa State at Kansas State (-2.5).

ACC

With the ACC Title Game settled a few weeks ago, Clemson and Miami only have “Don’t Screw Up” on their Bucket Lists this week. But, both must do so on the road. As stated above, Clemson (-14) travels to South Carolina, while Miami (-13.5) is on the road at Pitt.  I will say this, though, and that is the high in Pittsburgh on Friday is only supposed to be 50°F. Hmmmmm. Other than that, Louisville (-9) will try to score a win over an SEC team at Kentucky, and Georgia Tech (+10) and Duke (+10.5) have one more shot to become Bowl Eligible against Georgia and at Wake Forest.

Group of Five / Independents

Notre Dame may have played themselves out of the playoffs with the blow-out loss to Miami two weeks ago, but likely in order to stay in the NY6, they will need to go on the road and beat Stanford (+1.5). My spreadsheet likes the Doomers by 8, but the FPI is picking the Cardinal this week. And, finally, the AAC battle that we have all been waiting for what seems like 2 months is finally upon us. South Florida travel over to Orlando to face Central Florida (-9.5) in a fight for the AAC East Title and a shot to face Memphis next week for the Conference Title.  One of those three teams will almost certainly earn the NY6 berth and will play in the Peach Bowl.

That is all for this week. I hope everyone enjoyed a relaxing Thanksgiving. As always, Go State, Beat Rutgers!