I mentioned this a little in my weekly recap, but I have been thinking out this a little more since then and I am now even more convinced. If MSU wins out to go 9-3, by far the most likely destination is Tampa to play in the Outback Bowl.
Here is my logic: If we consider the possibility of no major upsets in the final two weeks, Big Ten teams will finish with the following records:
Wisconsin: 12-0
Ohio State: 10-2
Penn State: 10-2
MSU: 9-3
Northwestern 9-3
Iowa: 8-4
Michigan: 8-4
No other team over 6-6
If this were to happen, Wisconsin would certainly be in the NY6, and likely the playoffs with a win over OSU in Indy. Also, based on a comparison to the other potentially eligible team, a 10-2 Penn State team is very likely to finish either 10th or 11th at worst, which also puts them in the NY6. Ohio State is a bit of a wild card. If they win the B1G, they will stay in the NY6, if they lose to drop to 10-3, then they are borderline.
One factor is the Orange Bowl. If a B1G team is selected for the Orange Bowl, which is contracted to take an ACC team to play the highest ranked SEC or Big Ten team or Notre Dame not in the playoffs, then the Citrus Bowl cannot take a Big Ten team. However, this does really matter so much. If all three top tier B1G team stay in the NY6, it is pretty likely that one of them is in the Orange Bowl, and then the Outback Bowl takes MSU as the next highest ranked B1G team. However, if OSU falls out of the NY6 due to a loss in Indy, it is unlikely Wisconsin or Penn State will be ranked in the 5-9 range (Wisconsin will be higher and Penn State lower). The Orange Bowl will then likely take the loser of the SEC title game and Ohio State will get the Citrus Bowl.
But, even if somehow the Big Ten gets 3 teams in the NY6 and none of them are in the Orange Bowl (for example if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC title game and Bama ends the season ranked 5th), MSU still will likely go to Tampa. The reason is that in the new Playoff/NY6 era bowl contracts, there is a "no repeat" stipulation that states, "[The Outback Bowl] will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over six-year agreement." Basically all B1G Bowls have this policy. The last two Big Ten teams to play is the Outback Bowl were... Iowa and Northwestern. So, even if the Citrus Bowl is available, they Big Ten contract more-or-less would demand that the Citrus Bowl take Northwestern to avoid a repeat leaving MSU once again in Tampa.
That all said, there is one team that could mess this all up, and that is Michigan. (Depending on how much you like Tampa, this might be a good or bad thing). If Michigan beats Wisconsin and/or Ohio State, the Wolverines will move up and the upset team will slide down, and this whole balance gets disrupted. If Michigan winds up 9-3, MSU could conceivably wind up in either the Citrus or Holiday Bowl. But, if Michigan losses both to Wisconsin and Ohio State, a 9-3 MSU team is headed to Tampa.
Here is my logic: If we consider the possibility of no major upsets in the final two weeks, Big Ten teams will finish with the following records:
Wisconsin: 12-0
Ohio State: 10-2
Penn State: 10-2
MSU: 9-3
Northwestern 9-3
Iowa: 8-4
Michigan: 8-4
No other team over 6-6
If this were to happen, Wisconsin would certainly be in the NY6, and likely the playoffs with a win over OSU in Indy. Also, based on a comparison to the other potentially eligible team, a 10-2 Penn State team is very likely to finish either 10th or 11th at worst, which also puts them in the NY6. Ohio State is a bit of a wild card. If they win the B1G, they will stay in the NY6, if they lose to drop to 10-3, then they are borderline.
One factor is the Orange Bowl. If a B1G team is selected for the Orange Bowl, which is contracted to take an ACC team to play the highest ranked SEC or Big Ten team or Notre Dame not in the playoffs, then the Citrus Bowl cannot take a Big Ten team. However, this does really matter so much. If all three top tier B1G team stay in the NY6, it is pretty likely that one of them is in the Orange Bowl, and then the Outback Bowl takes MSU as the next highest ranked B1G team. However, if OSU falls out of the NY6 due to a loss in Indy, it is unlikely Wisconsin or Penn State will be ranked in the 5-9 range (Wisconsin will be higher and Penn State lower). The Orange Bowl will then likely take the loser of the SEC title game and Ohio State will get the Citrus Bowl.
But, even if somehow the Big Ten gets 3 teams in the NY6 and none of them are in the Orange Bowl (for example if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC title game and Bama ends the season ranked 5th), MSU still will likely go to Tampa. The reason is that in the new Playoff/NY6 era bowl contracts, there is a "no repeat" stipulation that states, "[The Outback Bowl] will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over six-year agreement." Basically all B1G Bowls have this policy. The last two Big Ten teams to play is the Outback Bowl were... Iowa and Northwestern. So, even if the Citrus Bowl is available, they Big Ten contract more-or-less would demand that the Citrus Bowl take Northwestern to avoid a repeat leaving MSU once again in Tampa.
That all said, there is one team that could mess this all up, and that is Michigan. (Depending on how much you like Tampa, this might be a good or bad thing). If Michigan beats Wisconsin and/or Ohio State, the Wolverines will move up and the upset team will slide down, and this whole balance gets disrupted. If Michigan winds up 9-3, MSU could conceivably wind up in either the Citrus or Holiday Bowl. But, if Michigan losses both to Wisconsin and Ohio State, a 9-3 MSU team is headed to Tampa.
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