2017, Week 11 Recap (Reality Bites)

So, Saturday’s MSU game could have gone better. In fact, it is hard to imagine how it could have gone worse. OK, that is not really true as we could have had a rash of injuries and Coach D could have had a second heart attack. #smallvictories. Coming into the game, like many others, I thought that there was a 50% chance that OSU was going to come in deflated and fractured, and MSU would be sharp, motivated, and maybe even too young to really understand the true size of the stage. Thus, it could be a close that game that MSU might even be able to win. The other 50% chance was that OSU would come in very, very angry and the game could get pretty ugly for MSU. Well… we now have our answer as to which side up that coin landed.  Now, it is easy to say that “Vegas knew something,” as the spread was -17. That was a little high, but based on my math, -12 would have been better, and that is not a huge difference. Historical numbers show that the Vegas line is really good at predicting the final margin of victory, on average, over a very large number of games. In other words, in 100 games where the spread was -17, the favored team wins by…. an average of 17 points. But, the key is the variance. Over that same hypothetical set of 100 games, the standard deviation of point margin is roughly 2 TDs.  In around 11 of those 100 games, the underdog actual wins, like 17-point underdog Iowa did last week, and similar to when MSU beat Michigan (-12) and Penn State (-9). MSU just got caught on the wrong side of the bell curve this week. Everything that had been going right all year (like QB play, WR play, and run defense) struggled, and without those pieces clicking, MSU is very. very average. Like many of you, I had the audacity to hope and dream of that 11% chance that MSU could once again pull the upset, but I was brought back down to reality by midafternoon on Saturday. And sometimes, Reality Bites. On Saturday, it bit hard, and we didn’t even get a cool 90s soundtrack or Pearl Jam cameo to ease the pain. The fact is, this is still a very young team, with a few holes. Against most opponents, that youth and those holes can be patched, but OSU showed us that there is still a long way for this team to go. But, you know what? Maybe that’s OK. If you would have told any MSU fan after the final whistle of the 2016 season that a year later, MSU would be sitting at 7-3 with wins over Michigan and Penn State (and a solid shot at 9-3), that fan would have probably done a back-flip (unless, the fan is actually me, as I am not that flexible). Yeah, Saturday sucked, but that young team learned a good, hard lesson. Most of those guys are going to be back next year, and they are going to be stronger and smarter. Who knows, maybe next year it will be the rest of the Big Ten East that will need a Reality Check. I wouldn’t bet against it.

National Overview

As usual, the chart above compares the results of all 59 games played last week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. Unfortunately, Ohio State was one of the big over-achievers of the week, as they beat the spread by 4 TDs. Other overachievers include Minnesota, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri (who beat Butch Jones right out of the Volunteers), as well as Oklahoma, Michigan, and the Wolverines next opponent: The Wisconsin Badgers. As for underachievers, both Texas and UCF fell into that category this week. Regarding upsets, my preview simulation was once again very close as I count 16 total upsets, including UNC over Pitt, Stanford over Washington, Ohio over Toledo, Kentucky over Vandy, Wyoming over UofM’s strength of schedule, GA Tech over VA Tech, West Virginia over K-State, and the two big ones: Miami over Notre Dame and Auburn over Georgia, both of which will have major impact on the playoff picture as a whole. Finally, my spreadsheet had a pretty dismal week overall against the spread (ATS), going 23-36 to drop to below 50% for the year (49.5%), but at least it did go 3-2 for highlighted covers (55.6% overall) and 4-4 for upsets (42% overall). ESPN’s FPI recovered after last week’s performance to go 34-25 ATS (52.6% overall) and 2-0 for upsets (46.9% overall).  Rand()y had a good week as well, hitting 8-7 for upsets (36.3% for the year). Now, let take a quick spin around the country to check on the regional action.

Big Ten

In looking through the results, there were actually no upsets or real surprises in the Big Ten this week. Sure, there were several games where the margins of victory were bigger than expected (as discussed above), but the overall picture is not changed. In fact, it is more clear. It is just not any different than we thought last week. By beating Iowa, Wisconsin is officially the West Division Champ and will travel to Indy in 3 weeks. Similarly, Ohio State is now clearly in the driver’s seat in the East. Based on tie-breakers, in order for OSU to not go to Indy, they would either have to lose out (almost impossible considering that they are 38-point favorites against Illinois this week, and my math says the odds of an upset are 0.2%) OR have Michigan win out and both MSU and PSU lose one more game, all of which are being played against teams that are not projected to get above 500 this year. In other words, it is very, very unlikely. So, the only drama left is the question of whether or not the Big Ten Champ is able to sneak into the playoffs. Considering the general chaos in last weekend, I think the odds are increasingly good, even if that team is a 2-loss Ohio State team. After that, teams are basically just trying to position themselves for the great middle-school dodge ball exercise that is ball selection. Right now, MSU looks to be solidly in the 4^th or 5^th slot overall, which might get MSU as high as the Citrus Bowl or as “low” as the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.  Even the Quick Lane Bowl would sound pretty nice to Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, and Rutgers, NONE of which are expected to get to 6 wins. Then again, I would expect at least 1 and maybe 2 of those teams (maybe Indiana and Minnesota?) will likely back into a bowl with a 5-7 record. Right now I project that only 77 FBS teams will get to 6 wins and 80 teams are needed to fill all the Bowl slots.

SEC

In all honestly, I was looking forward to ignoring the SEC until the Title game, but wouldn’t you know it, the conference had to go out and actually create some honest-to-goodness drama this week! A week after officially locking up the East Division, the Bulldogs of Georgia went down to Auburn and crapped the bed (bad dog!) This allowed 2-loss Auburn to stay in the SEC race and creates some real drama for the Iron Bowl in 2 weeks, which is now for all the marbles in the West. Considering that Bama only sealed victory over the other SEC Bulldogs in the final seconds, all-of-a-sudden, an Auburn-Georgia rematch in Atlanta in a few weeks seems like a real possibility. In fact, my spreadsheet projects Bama as only a 2.3-point favorite. What would the committee do with an SEC champ with 2-losses and a 1-loss Alabama team with a surprising lack of quality wins? Elsewhere in conference play, there was only one other upset, which was Kentucky’s win at Vandy. Texas A&M got to 6 wins with a victory over New Mexico, and South Carolina handed UofM’s marquee non-conference victory their 6^th loss of the season, which means the Florida – Florida State game to close the season will likely be for the right to play in a crappy bowl game only.

Big 12

I really thought the Big 12 had a great opportunity to really have an interesting finish this year, but alas, the Cyclones of Iowa State did not come through, as they fell to OK State by a TD.  As a result, we will very likely see a rematch of this week’s Oklahoma – TCU game (won by Oklahoma) in the New and Completely Unnecessary Big 12 Title Game.  The only remotely interesting thing that could happen is West Virginia could still beat Oklahoma in 2 weeks in Norman to force a potential 4-way tie, but even in that case, it looks like the Sooners and Frogs would win the tiebreaker and face each other anyway. I am, of course, hoping for TCU to win in the rematch, just to increase the odds that the conference gets screwed over by their own attempt to raise the profile of the conference with a Completely Unnecessary Title Game. Yeah, that’s how I roll.

ACC

As far as upsets go, it was a pretty crazy week for the ACC. Army upset Duke, UNC upset Pitt, Wake upset Syracuse, and GA Tech upset Virginia Tech. But, in all honesty, the only result of those that matters even remotely is Georgia Tech’s win, which now gives the Yellow Jackets a shot to get to 6-wins next week against Duke. As for the conference race, it is over. Clemson beat Florida State this week to clinch the Atlantic Division, and they will meet Miami in Orlando in a few weeks to decide the ACC Champ. But, the real story this week is, of course, the Hurricanes drubbing of Notre Dame in South Beach, which now leaves Miami at 9-0 and solidly in the playoff discussion. Both Miami and Clemson just need to avoid a resume-crushing-toe-stubbing on their way to the title game. If both can survive two fairly manageable between now and then, the winner of the showdown will certainly earn a Playoff spot. It that winner is Miami, Clemson is likely out and headed to the Orange Bowl.  If that winner is Clemson, the committee might need to take both teams. 

Pac 12

Out West this week, USC officially locked up the South Division Title with a win over Colorado, but the big news this week was Stanford’s upset win over Washington, which will make for a slightly more interesting finish in the North, even if it also pretty much ends any hope that the Pac 12 Champ can sneak into the playoffs.  Take, heart, boys as I hear Phoenix is lovely over the Holidays. As for the North Champ, the Huskies are basically out unless Stanford were to be upset by Cal next week. As such, Washington State will win the north with a win in the Apple Bowl and a Washington win will send Stanford to the Title Game.

Group of Five / Independents

With Notre Dame’s loss to Miami, I think it is safe to say that the Irish are now clearly on the outside looking in for the Playoffs. But, if they can beat Stanford in a few weeks and get to 10-2, a bid in one of the other NY6 Games seems likely. The Orange Bowl is technically supposed to take the highest ranked, available team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Norte Dame to play an ACC team, but that could get messy on both sides of the equation, especially since Notre Dame is “ACC-lite” and the committee is supposed to avoid rematches. That could be fun. On the Group of Five side, UCF beat UCONN to stay at the front of the pack for the Peach Bowl bid, with the ultimate showdown with USF still two weeks away. Meanwhile, Memphis’ road to the AAC West Title got slightly smoother this week due to SMU’s loss to Navy. Memphis would now need to lose both to SMU and to 2-8 East Carolina to choke. Finally, Boise State beat Colorado State this weekend to stay undefeated in conference play, but honestly I do not see them with a path to the NY6.

Finally, if the season ended today, that would be weird. So, how do the bowl parings project?

Right now, my spreadsheet likes the following conference outcomes:

Clemson (12-1) beats Miami (11-1) to win the ACC
Ohio State (11-2) beats Wisconsin (12-1) to win the Big Ten
TCU (11-2) wins the rematch with Oklahoma (11-2)
Alabama (13-0) beats Georgia (11-2) to win the SEC (after narrowly beating Auburn (9-3))
USC (11-2) beats Stanford (9-4) to win the Pac 12
UCF beats Memphis to win the AAC

In addition, the following Power 5 teams would all be expected to have 10 wins:

Penn State (10-2)
Oklahoma State (10-2)
Notre Dame (10-2)
Washington (10-2)

If this all comes to pass, the major problem is Miami. But, my gut tells me that the committee would be impressed enough by the 2-loss conference champs and the idea that a conference game is pretty much a single game elimination anyway, that the Cane would wind up ranked #5. Also, despite Oklahoma's 18-point win over TCU this weekend, the spreadsheet still likes TCU to win. But, I don't see this impacting the rankings that I have below, as you could literally just exchange Oklahoma and TCU if the Sooners were to win. This would result in the follow bowl pairings:

Sugar Bow: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 TCU
Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Penn State

Once again, I think Penn State would get the last NY6 slot over Washington and Oklahoma State, which shifts the entire Big Ten Bowl pecking order up a notch. But, the placement of Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl would mean the Big Ten does not get the Citrus Bowl. Therefore, the Outback Bowl is next up. Due to the "no repeat" rule MSU would be selected over Northwestern (or Iowa) because those two teams played in Tampa over the past 3 years.  The most likely opponent for MSU looks to be... MSU, the Mississippi version, who is projected to finish also at 9-3.

That is all for now, as always, Go State, Beat the Terrapins!