I like the winter time. I really do. I like snow. It’s
pretty. It’s bright. It reflects the sunlight on those dark, December and
January days when the number of daylight hours are limited. If it were up to
me, some flurries in the air during Senior Day in Spartan Stadium is just about
perfect ever year. That is what Big Ten football is all about in the month of
November. What I don’t like, however, is
a cold rain. As I learned on Saturday, cold rain, followed by snow and wind, is
a pretty brutal combination, and for the second time in two trips, I didn’t
make it to the final whistle. It was, simply put, the worst weather conditions
the I can remember experiencing as a fan in the past 25 years. So, no Terry, is
was not exactly a beautiful day for football. Furthermore, it was not a
beautiful day for the passing game. In the 3 quarters that I saw live, I think
the number of total completed passes could have been counted on one hand, and
at least one of those was an MSU shovel pass. But, what was beautiful was MSU’s
rushing game. On a day when running was absolutely necessary, MSU got the job
done. More than that, other than the goal-line fumble, MSU avoided the costly
mistake (such as a bad snap on a punt or a muffed return) that could have
really made that 4th quarter a nail-biter. Basically, despite some
adversity, MSU did exactly what they usually do under Mark Dantonio when facing
this situation: they grounded it out and won. I wouldn't call it beautiful, but next week MSU will have a great shot at winning their 9th game of the season. A month or so later, some place where snow is not likely to be in the forecast, MSU will have a chance to reach double digit wins for the 6th time in the past 8 year. Now that is beautiful.
National Overview
From the National point of view, it was not exactly pretty out there either. It was supposed to be a fairly quiet weekend, but in total there were 18 upsets, well above the 12.5 my simulation predicted. As the chart above also shows, there were also quite a few outcomes where the final margin differed from the spread by more than 10 points. Most notable was Indiana's shutout of Rutgers, Northwestern's shutout of Minnesota, Missouri's win over Vandy, TCU's win over Texas Tech, and Oregon's big win over Arizona. In the underachieving (but still victorious) category were Penn State, Notre Dame, USF, Virginia Tech, and a trio of Pac 12 Top Tier teams: USC, Stanford, and Washington. As for the teams that were upset, quite a few of them were in the Group of Five, but K-State's upset of Oklahoma State, Purdue's win over Iowa, A&M's win over Ole Miss, Texas' win over West Virginia, and Duke's upset of GA Tech were the notable events in the Power 5. As for my spreadsheet, it had a down-right strange week. For highlighted covers, it had its worst week of the season so far, going 1-5 (66-57 for the season, 53.7%), but an even 30-30 overall ATS (326-332, 49.5%). However, it went 6-0 for upsets, bringing the season total to 39-47 (45.3%). Not to be outdone, the FPI also was perfect for upsets (3-0, 26-26, 50% for the year) and even went 34-26 ATS (348-309, 53% overall). Rand()y wound up doing fairly well also, going 6-7 to bring his total to 55-93 (37.2%) for the year.
Big Ten
There was not supposed to be a lot of drama in the Big Ten this week, and in all honesty, there really wasn't. The upper tier teams all won the games they were supposed to win, which included Wisconsin ending any potential drama in the East by sending the Wolverines home as losers (so, basically no change). Couple that with Ohio State's completely expected demolition of Illinois and the Big Ten Championship game is now set, with the Badgers (pipe) dream of an undefeated season still intact. The only real drama was Purdue's surprising upset of Iowa in Iowa City, which seems to be where all the cool upsets are happening these days. As a result, the Hawkeyes likely will slide behind Michigan in the Bowl pecking order, as 7-5 is now the best that they can hope for. Perhaps more importantly, Purdue made it to 5 wins, which means now next week's Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana is a bona-fide playoff to earn a bowl bid. It is probably the most important Big Ten game on the schedule next week, then, right? Sadly (I suppose), three B1G teams officially earned 7 losses this week (Rutgers, Nebraska, and Maryland) and Minnesota is sitting at 5-6 with only a game left vs. Wisconsin on the schedule. That is not expected to go well.
Big 12
The closest thing to real drama that I could find this week was in the Big 12, where two upsets did occur: K State upset Oklahoma State, and Texas upset West Virginia. As a result, there is now a 4-way tie for 3rd place and if TCU were to lose next week, there might actually be some drama... wait, never mind. TCU is playing Baylor next week. I am not even going to both to think about potential tie-breakers (which TCU would probably win anyway). I will just go ahead and assume the Oklahoma-TCU rematch in the New and Completely Unnecessary Big 12 Championship Game will still happen. The only result of note here is that with Oklahoma State's upset loss to K-State, the best they can do is 9-3 and a NY6 bid is now basically out. This slightly increases the odds that Penn State will stay in the NY6, but I doubt OK State would have beaten them out anyway.
ACC
The Division races were over last week, so there was not a lot that could go wrong for the ACC, but Miami tried for a while. The Canes trailed Virginia by 14 points a couple of times before pulling away in the 2nd half. Now, only a little road trip to Pitt stands between them and a perfect regular season. The only other notable result can be filled under the category of "so sad it's actually kind of hilarious." Last week, Georgia Tech upset Virginia Tech to get to 5 wins and seemed to be on the verge of earning a Bowl Bid. This week, the Yellow Jackets traveled to Duke, and were themselves... upset (cue sad trombone). Don't worry, though, guys, you can still upset Georgia to get to 6 wins, right? I guess it goes to show: DUKE RUINS EVERYTHING.
SEC
It was the annual "eat yourself a cup cake before the season finale" week in the SEC and Alabama and Auburn did just that. Georgia beat Kentucky as well (who I can only assume they naturally assumed would be a cupcake this year), so the main contenders are still intact. Other than that, A&M "upset" Ole Miss (which really didn't seem like it should have been an upset at all) and three SEC teams earned their bowl-hopes-crushing 7th loss this week: Vandy, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Amusingly, both Tennessee and Arkansas were ranked in the Top 40 of every preseason magazine. Whoops.
Pac 12
In order for anything remotely interesting to happen in the Pac 12 this week, Cal would have needed to beat Stanford. Cal did not beat Stanford. Also, both USC and Washington won in close games. Nobody even got to 7 loses. You guys are boring.
Independents / Group of Five
It looked for a little while like Navy might be a bit too much trouble for Notre Dame, but in the end the Irish pulled it out. As a result, all that stands between ND and a NY6 bid is a little road trip to Palo Alto next weekend. Actually, I recommend flying. Traffic is horrible in Silicon Valley. As for the Group of Five, Memphis sewed up the AAC West this week and both USF and UCF took care of business as well. The directional Florida schools will finally square off next week with the AAC East Title on the line. It seems like the eventual winner of the AAC is a virtual lock for the Peach Bowl. I suppose Boise State and Toledo will still get a quick glance by the committee if they can win their leagues, but that is about all that they will get.
Finally, If the Season Ended Today, That Would Be Weird.
Last week, I gave my Bowl Picks and honestly nothing has changed, so I will just restate them here:
Sugar Bow: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 TCU
Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Penn State
My spreadsheet still likes TCU over Oklahoma, despite Oklahoma already beating the Frogs once this year. Even if TCU loses, it seems likely that the two Big 12 teams would simply change places. For me, the biggest questions remaining are if teams like OSU and TCU lose again, do they drop out of the NY6? With 10 wins, I think both are safe, but I suppose the winner of the Apple Bowl might be able to sneak in there. The biggest wildcard remaining is the Alabama-Auburn game. If Auburn were to win, does Bama still make the playoffs? If Oklahoma and Wisconsin both win their conference championships, this will create a very interesting problem. Bama would likely get in over a 2-loss Champion, but I don't see how you can take 2 SEC teams if undefeated Wisconsin, either undefeated Miami or 1-loss Clemson, and 1-loss Oklahoma are still available. I think Bama has to finish 5th in this scenario.
As for MSU, I have already written about my thoughts on their destination, and I still believe that it will be Tampa. The only way I see a 9-3 MSU team not the Outback Bowl is in one of two scenarios:
1) Either Penn State or Ohio State falls out of the Top 11 and one of the two remaining B1G teams winds up in the Orange Bowl. This seems very unlikely. I don't think PSU will fall out as long as they beat Maryland this week, and the only way for Ohio State to not make the NY6 is if they lose to Wisconsin. In this scenario, Wisconsin is in the playoffs and not the Orange Bowl.
2) OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin all finish in the Top 11, but an SEC team (like Alabama) finishes 5th and ends up in the Orange Bowl. The Citrus Bowl then selects MSU, but in the process screws over Northwestern, who the Outback Bowl likely won't take due to the "no repeat" rule. (I am not sure exactly how these Bowl decisions are made and the B1G might actually intervene on Northwestern's behalf to prevent such a situation.) The Outback Bowl would then get Michigan. If Michigan beats OSU and OSU then beats Wisconsin, I suppose this could happen, but that is lot of ifs...
That is all for now. As always, Go State, Beat Rutgers
National Overview
From the National point of view, it was not exactly pretty out there either. It was supposed to be a fairly quiet weekend, but in total there were 18 upsets, well above the 12.5 my simulation predicted. As the chart above also shows, there were also quite a few outcomes where the final margin differed from the spread by more than 10 points. Most notable was Indiana's shutout of Rutgers, Northwestern's shutout of Minnesota, Missouri's win over Vandy, TCU's win over Texas Tech, and Oregon's big win over Arizona. In the underachieving (but still victorious) category were Penn State, Notre Dame, USF, Virginia Tech, and a trio of Pac 12 Top Tier teams: USC, Stanford, and Washington. As for the teams that were upset, quite a few of them were in the Group of Five, but K-State's upset of Oklahoma State, Purdue's win over Iowa, A&M's win over Ole Miss, Texas' win over West Virginia, and Duke's upset of GA Tech were the notable events in the Power 5. As for my spreadsheet, it had a down-right strange week. For highlighted covers, it had its worst week of the season so far, going 1-5 (66-57 for the season, 53.7%), but an even 30-30 overall ATS (326-332, 49.5%). However, it went 6-0 for upsets, bringing the season total to 39-47 (45.3%). Not to be outdone, the FPI also was perfect for upsets (3-0, 26-26, 50% for the year) and even went 34-26 ATS (348-309, 53% overall). Rand()y wound up doing fairly well also, going 6-7 to bring his total to 55-93 (37.2%) for the year.
Big Ten
There was not supposed to be a lot of drama in the Big Ten this week, and in all honesty, there really wasn't. The upper tier teams all won the games they were supposed to win, which included Wisconsin ending any potential drama in the East by sending the Wolverines home as losers (so, basically no change). Couple that with Ohio State's completely expected demolition of Illinois and the Big Ten Championship game is now set, with the Badgers (pipe) dream of an undefeated season still intact. The only real drama was Purdue's surprising upset of Iowa in Iowa City, which seems to be where all the cool upsets are happening these days. As a result, the Hawkeyes likely will slide behind Michigan in the Bowl pecking order, as 7-5 is now the best that they can hope for. Perhaps more importantly, Purdue made it to 5 wins, which means now next week's Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana is a bona-fide playoff to earn a bowl bid. It is probably the most important Big Ten game on the schedule next week, then, right? Sadly (I suppose), three B1G teams officially earned 7 losses this week (Rutgers, Nebraska, and Maryland) and Minnesota is sitting at 5-6 with only a game left vs. Wisconsin on the schedule. That is not expected to go well.
Big 12
The closest thing to real drama that I could find this week was in the Big 12, where two upsets did occur: K State upset Oklahoma State, and Texas upset West Virginia. As a result, there is now a 4-way tie for 3rd place and if TCU were to lose next week, there might actually be some drama... wait, never mind. TCU is playing Baylor next week. I am not even going to both to think about potential tie-breakers (which TCU would probably win anyway). I will just go ahead and assume the Oklahoma-TCU rematch in the New and Completely Unnecessary Big 12 Championship Game will still happen. The only result of note here is that with Oklahoma State's upset loss to K-State, the best they can do is 9-3 and a NY6 bid is now basically out. This slightly increases the odds that Penn State will stay in the NY6, but I doubt OK State would have beaten them out anyway.
ACC
The Division races were over last week, so there was not a lot that could go wrong for the ACC, but Miami tried for a while. The Canes trailed Virginia by 14 points a couple of times before pulling away in the 2nd half. Now, only a little road trip to Pitt stands between them and a perfect regular season. The only other notable result can be filled under the category of "so sad it's actually kind of hilarious." Last week, Georgia Tech upset Virginia Tech to get to 5 wins and seemed to be on the verge of earning a Bowl Bid. This week, the Yellow Jackets traveled to Duke, and were themselves... upset (cue sad trombone). Don't worry, though, guys, you can still upset Georgia to get to 6 wins, right? I guess it goes to show: DUKE RUINS EVERYTHING.
SEC
It was the annual "eat yourself a cup cake before the season finale" week in the SEC and Alabama and Auburn did just that. Georgia beat Kentucky as well (who I can only assume they naturally assumed would be a cupcake this year), so the main contenders are still intact. Other than that, A&M "upset" Ole Miss (which really didn't seem like it should have been an upset at all) and three SEC teams earned their bowl-hopes-crushing 7th loss this week: Vandy, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Amusingly, both Tennessee and Arkansas were ranked in the Top 40 of every preseason magazine. Whoops.
Pac 12
In order for anything remotely interesting to happen in the Pac 12 this week, Cal would have needed to beat Stanford. Cal did not beat Stanford. Also, both USC and Washington won in close games. Nobody even got to 7 loses. You guys are boring.
Independents / Group of Five
It looked for a little while like Navy might be a bit too much trouble for Notre Dame, but in the end the Irish pulled it out. As a result, all that stands between ND and a NY6 bid is a little road trip to Palo Alto next weekend. Actually, I recommend flying. Traffic is horrible in Silicon Valley. As for the Group of Five, Memphis sewed up the AAC West this week and both USF and UCF took care of business as well. The directional Florida schools will finally square off next week with the AAC East Title on the line. It seems like the eventual winner of the AAC is a virtual lock for the Peach Bowl. I suppose Boise State and Toledo will still get a quick glance by the committee if they can win their leagues, but that is about all that they will get.
Finally, If the Season Ended Today, That Would Be Weird.
Last week, I gave my Bowl Picks and honestly nothing has changed, so I will just restate them here:
Sugar Bow: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 TCU
Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Penn State
My spreadsheet still likes TCU over Oklahoma, despite Oklahoma already beating the Frogs once this year. Even if TCU loses, it seems likely that the two Big 12 teams would simply change places. For me, the biggest questions remaining are if teams like OSU and TCU lose again, do they drop out of the NY6? With 10 wins, I think both are safe, but I suppose the winner of the Apple Bowl might be able to sneak in there. The biggest wildcard remaining is the Alabama-Auburn game. If Auburn were to win, does Bama still make the playoffs? If Oklahoma and Wisconsin both win their conference championships, this will create a very interesting problem. Bama would likely get in over a 2-loss Champion, but I don't see how you can take 2 SEC teams if undefeated Wisconsin, either undefeated Miami or 1-loss Clemson, and 1-loss Oklahoma are still available. I think Bama has to finish 5th in this scenario.
As for MSU, I have already written about my thoughts on their destination, and I still believe that it will be Tampa. The only way I see a 9-3 MSU team not the Outback Bowl is in one of two scenarios:
1) Either Penn State or Ohio State falls out of the Top 11 and one of the two remaining B1G teams winds up in the Orange Bowl. This seems very unlikely. I don't think PSU will fall out as long as they beat Maryland this week, and the only way for Ohio State to not make the NY6 is if they lose to Wisconsin. In this scenario, Wisconsin is in the playoffs and not the Orange Bowl.
2) OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin all finish in the Top 11, but an SEC team (like Alabama) finishes 5th and ends up in the Orange Bowl. The Citrus Bowl then selects MSU, but in the process screws over Northwestern, who the Outback Bowl likely won't take due to the "no repeat" rule. (I am not sure exactly how these Bowl decisions are made and the B1G might actually intervene on Northwestern's behalf to prevent such a situation.) The Outback Bowl would then get Michigan. If Michigan beats OSU and OSU then beats Wisconsin, I suppose this could happen, but that is lot of ifs...
That is all for now. As always, Go State, Beat Rutgers
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