Bracketology in late November

We have a long way to go until March, but I am always interested in the geography of the tournament. In the past decade or so, the committee has prioritized the idea of keeping teams close to home. As we look at the possible locations where MSU could be playing, we can already start to make some predictions

First, to me it looks quite likely that MSU will get to play in Detroit in the first two rounds. Even if the team stumbles a little, as long as they stay in the Top 10 or so, Detroit is very likely. The reason is that if you look at the other possible sites, Detroit won't be the closest pod to very many other teams. Those sites are:

Pittsburgh, PA

Wichita, KS

Dallas, TX

Boise, ID

Charlotte, NC

Detroit, MI

Nashville, TN

San Diego, CA

If we look at the current Top 25, only Purdue and Notre Dame would likely prefer Detroit. Cincinnati and Xavier are also possibilities, but they might prefer Pittsburgh. Of course, the worst case is the dreaded 4-seed that gets shipped out West. That certainly could happen, but it does not seem likely at this point.

If MSU is fortunate enough to be a Top 3ish seed, we will also get preferentially placed in region. But, the Regional sites are:

Atlanta, GA => 774 miles from East Lansing by Google Maps

Los Angeles, CA => a long way from East Lansing

Boston, MA => 711 miles (if you drive through Canada)

Omaha, NE => 676 miles

So, MSU would seem to prefer the "Midwest" Region in Omaha, but it is not that much closer than either Boston or Atlanta. If MSU does get the Midwest, then we are likely going to see teams such as Kansas, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Baylor, and Texas A&M who would also prefer this Region.

If MSU slips up a bit, or if the committee is trying to "optimize" things, I think the East Region in Boston is also fairly likely. The reason is that there are not that many ranked "east coast" teams this year. Villanova is the only one, really. In contrast, lots of teams will want the South Region, including Duke, Florida, UNC, Kentucky, Miami, Cincinnati and Xavier. It just seems very unlikely for MSU to be placed there.

If MSU does wind up in the East, the 2nd place ACC team will likely wind up there as well, if I had to guess. So, if you don't want a possible Duke rematch until the Final Four, it is best if the Blue Devils win the ACC. If MSU is a low 2-seed or a 3-seed, the West Region is also in play, where teams like Arizona, Gonzaga, and whoever finishes 2nd in the Big 12 (Baylor?) are likely to wind up.

Again, it's early, but this is how I see things in late November.

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