Back on Jan. 13 when the Michigan State Spartans were fresh off form the loss at Illinois, I issued the suggestion that it was not time to panic. Despite the fact that Michigan State was 1-4 in conference play, the schedule suggested that the Spartans had a great chance to make up ground over the next several weeks.
Michigan State did not exactly dominate from wire-to-wire over the past three games, but the Spartans did notch three victories over Rutgers, Minnesota, and at Maryland to even the conference record at 4-4.
As a result, the Michigan are currently holding steady in the Big Ten race. The past three wins have allowed the Spartans to hold and slightly improve their position. In today's update, we will look at that position in more detail.
Also in this update, I would like to introduce one other change in format. Throughout the year, I have used this space to provide periodic updates on odds and stats related to the Big Ten race. But these data change on a daily basis, which is challenging.
For the remainder of the season, I will utilize a new odds and data tracker to house some of the raw data related to Michigan State and the Big Ten race. I plan to update some of this data on a daily basis. I will then use this space to provide analysis and commentary on what the data means.
Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds
Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 40.7% of the regular season now complete.
It is certainly a relief to Michigan State fans to see the Spartans rising up into the top half of the standings. There are also two notable changes in the enhanced standings.
First, Michigan State is back to zero in the plus/minus metric. The win at Maryland has offset the home loss to Wisconsin back in December. If the Spartans are able to simply protect home court for the rest of the season, they cannot finish any worse than 10-10 in conference play. Every road win from here on would contribute to a game over .500 in the final standings.
Note that there are currently only four Big Ten teams with a positive plus/minus score. Wisconsin and Purdue are both +3 and Illinois and Northwestern are both +1.
The other subtle change in the data shown in Table 1 is that Michigan State (-1.31) is no longer the least lucky team in the Big Ten. Ohio State (-1.94) now owns that distinction with Michigan (-1.27) just ahead of the Spartans.
Also note that of the teams ahead of Michigan State in the standings, Purdue (-0.67) and Illinois (-0.05) are slightly unlucky, while Wisconsin (+1.16) and Northwestern (+1.55) are both quite lucky. This suggests that the Boilermakers and Illini will likely stay near the top of the standings, while the current success of the Badgers and the Wildcats may be fool's gold.
Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten win matrix.
As mentioned above, Michigan State is holding steady at fourth place in expected wins. The Spartans hit a low in expected wins at 10.2 after the loss at Nebraska on Dec. 10. The total was up to 12.4 wins prior to the two-game skid in the state of Illinois in early January. Over the past three games, Michigan State is now moved from a projected record of 11-9 to 12-8 as the most likely result.
A more visual representation of the likely final regular season outcome for Michigan State is shown below in Figure 1. There is a 65% chance that Michigan will finish with between 11 and 13 wins. There is a 15% chance for MSU to finish with 14 wins or more and only an 8% chance that the Spartans tank and finish below .500 in conference play.
As for the broader Big Ten race, Wisconsin's loss at Penn State on Jan. 16 has allowed Purdue to retake top spot in expected wins at 15.9. Wisconsin (14.4) and Illinois (14.1) are current jockeying for second place.
After Michigan State at 11.80 there is now a game-and-a-half gap until the next team. Nebraska (10.6) currently sits at fifth place in a group of teams hovering near .500 that also includes Northwestern (10.3), Iowa (9.8), and Ohio State (9.4).
Table 3 below shows the updated Big Ten Champions odds matrix.
As expected Purdue (72%) is once again the heavy favorite to hang another banner with Wisconsin (29%) and Illinois (21%) still in the race. The simulation is also still suggesting that there is a 50-50 chance that a record of 17-3 or better will be needed to win at least a share of the regular season title.
Michigan State has the fourth best odds to at least share the title at 1.6%, similar to the odds for the Spartans over the past three weeks. If the Spartans can get the upset win over Wisconsin on Friday, those odds will increase. If that happens, we can have a conversation about paths to a Big Ten title.
As for other related odds, Michigan State is likely to earn the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have the fourth best odds to win the tournament at 9%. It is roughly 50-50 as to whether the Spartans will earn a top four seed and double bye or just a single bye.
Michigan State also now has a remaining strength of schedule that is in the middle of the pack at No. 7 in the conference. Notably Nebraska (No. 2 easiest) and Northwestern (No. 3 easiest) both have easier remaining schedules. Purdue (No. 4) and Illinois (No. 8) have remaining schedules which are similarly difficult compared to Michigan State while Wisconsin (No. 13) has the toughest remaining schedule of the teams at the top of the standings.
Michigan State Schedule and Outlook
Figure 3 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games.
The outlook for the remainder of Michigan State's season is largely unchanged. The Spartans project to be underdogs at Wisconsin and at Purdue, but will likely be favored in the remaining 10 Big Ten games. The odds suggest that the Spartans will win between seven and eight of those 10 games, which is consistent with 11 or 12 expected Big Ten wins overall.
The home game with Illinois is clearly the toughest game in that group of 10 with the road games at Michigan, Minnesota, and Indiana checking in as the next three most challenging contests.
Kenpom Efficiency
Figure 2 below shows Kenpom efficiency scatter plot with data through Jan. 24.
Since the last update on Jan. 11, Michigan State's efficiency profile has drifted just outside of the range of past NCAA Champions. In order to be considered a legitimate threat to win it all, the Spartans need to improve in the area of defensive efficiency.
Michigan State is not alone, however, in falling out of the "championship zone." Back on Jan. 11, there were a total of 17 teams which fell into the blue area in Figure 2. As of Jan. 24, this group has decreased by almost a half to just nine total teams.
Right now only Arizona, Auburn, Creighton, Houston, Iowa State, Marquette, North Carolina, Purdue, and Tennessee have the statistical profiles consistent with past champions. It will be interesting to see how these numbers evolve over the next few weeks.
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